Valero Texas Open
TPC San Antonio – AT&T Oaks Course; San Antonio, TX
Purse: $6,200,000
Theories about how to best prepare in the run up to The Masters seem to differ: Either you play the week before or you don’t. As there are only 11 of the Top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings in the field this week, it appears to be the latter. However, the week before Augusta is typically the Shell Houston Open, but due to a scheduling quirk related to the Easter Holiday, Valero is the ticket this week. Additionally, there is no event this week on the European Tour. The last two times this was the case was in 2003 and 2010. In both those years a “lefty” went on to win the Masters; Mike Weir in 2003 and Phil Mickelson in 2010. Now there’s a far-reaching theory for you.
The headline-grabbing storylines this week at the Valero are few. There aren’t but a couple of pairings in the 1st and 2nd rounds that you could even remotely categorize as marquee. That being said, the highlighter of the event (and in his debut in San Antonio) is Rory McIlroy, the now World No. 2. McIlroy only added the Valero as he struggled to make the cut last week at the Shell Houston Open and under intense scrutiny regarding his lack of competitive playing rounds in 2013. Other than that, it’s just another non-Tiger week on the PGA Tour, which only means one thing so far this year; a long shot will win this week. Oh, one other thing; if you weren’t already going (and that’s just about everyone in the field), a win here stamps your ticket to the Masters. This is Week 14 of the Fantasy Challenge-Golf Channel. $1.16M goes to the winner. There have been 14 straight winners from the USA to open the 2013 PGA Tour season.
Tournament Notes
• Defending Champion: Ben Curtis; Runner-ups: Matt Every, John Huh.
• Although played since 1922, this is only the fourth edition of the event at its current location: The TPC San Antonio – Oaks Course.
• Besides Curtis, Brendan Steele (2011) is the only other past champion in the field (from the Oaks Course). Justin Leonard, a three-time winner and Tim Herron are also in the field, but each won this event at former venues.
• Course measures 7,435 yards on the card and ranked 4th hardest on the PGA Tour in 2012. Par 72 (36-36). Winning score in 2012 was -9 and -8 in 2011.
• Weather starting on Thursday should not be a factor, but the course did get a significant amount of rain on Tuesday night with more rain on Wednesday. TPC San Antonio [Forecast]: Temps will start off cool Thursday morning but quickly warm into the lower 70s for a high (mid to high 80s by Sunday). Sunday is also showing the greatest chance of rain, but only at 20%. Winds for the week forecast between 10-15 mph.
Names to Watch (Odds):
• Rory McIlroy (9/1) – First timer at Valero, adding the event in the 11th hour as he struggled to make the cut last week at Shell. Under somewhat less-intense scrutiny now that he’s World No. 2, McIlroy is still the odds-makers' favorite and is the headliner with no Tiger in the field. McIlroy will look to silence the naysayers this week.
• Matt Kuchar (12/1) – Kuchar T13 last year in his only appearance at TPC San Antonio. Five Top-25s in seven starts in 2013, including T14 in his last event in Tampa. Kuchar is seventh on tour in Scoring Average (69.43) despite being 173rd in Total Driving and 109th in GIR. Around the greens is where he’s getting it done; 16th in Scrambling, 26th in Strokes Gained Putting and 18th in three-putt avoidance.
• Freddie Jacobson (22/1) – Freddie Yak is hot. After a MC in the first event of his 2013 season (Phoenix Open), Freddie has reeled off five straight Top-25s including three Top-10s. He apparently enjoys the Oaks Course as he’s finished T18 last year, T5 in 2011 and runner-up in 2010. Freddie is a dismal 168th in Total Driving and 160th in GIR yet he ranks eighth on tour in Scoring Average (69.44). fifth on tour in Scrambling and 4th in Strokes Gained Putting pretty much explains that Top-10 scoring average.
• Cameron Tringale (28/1) – T8 in 2012, T5 in 2011. Coming off a T16 last week at Shell where he led the field in GIR at a blazing 83.2%. If he had dropped a few more putts, his finish would’ve been a lot higher. 34th in Total Driving in 2013 along with 8th in Bogey Avoidance. Both key stats on a course that favors good drivers of the ball and those that can get up and down to save par.
• Charley Hoffman (40/1) – In the first three editions at the Oaks Course: T13, T2, T13 (I’m sensing a trend here). Finished T2 in GIR en route to a T20 at Shell last week. Its fairways and greens or bust for Charley so far in 2013. 159th in Scrambling and 126th in Strokes Gained Putting. Still, he’s 7 for 7 at Valero so he likes the juju.
• Marcel Siem (66/1) – German is fresh off his victory at last week’s Trophee Hassan II on the European Tour. With the win, Marcel moved to 51st in OWGR, narrowly missing out on an automatic Masters bid by 0.0251 world ranking points. Accepts sponsor’s exemption this week to give it one more shot.
• Aaron Baddeley (66/1) – Only one prior visit to TPC San Antonio but that went for a T3 in 2010 closing in 66, 67 and 68. Fourth round 69 last week at Shell. seventh on tour in Strokes Gained Putting.
My Valero Texas Open picks: Group 1: Rory McIlroy; Group 2: Aaron Baddeley; Group 3: Kevin Chappell; Group 4: Hunter Haas.