Hot starts are always good news when it comes to fantasy baseball. Early leads are oh-so important, especially in rotisserie leagues when a lead can disappear in only a matter of a week or two.
However, there comes a time in every season when a fantasy owner must look at the players having these hot starts, and consider trading some of them. Most players who get hot through April and May often struggle in the latter part of the season, no matter how well they begin the year.
Selling high on these players now may hurt your team temporarily, but if traded for the right pieces, a trade can pay off in the long run if these players end up slowing down.
10. Chris Davis - 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles
No one in the fantasy world could have foreseen the start that Chris Davis is out to. After crushing 15 homeruns and driving in 44 runs in the first 46 games of the season, it’s time to start selling high on Davis.
This might be hard to some fantasy owners who have received a huge boost from the sixth-year player, but he doesn’t have a long enough track record to prove that he can keep up these numbers. Yes, he finished last season with 33 homers, but he only had five in 2011 and one in 2010, so selling high on Davis is the best move here.
9. Shin-Soo Choo - OF, Cincinnati Reds
Consistency has always been a huge reason why Shin-Soo Choo is a popular pick among fantasy owners when draft time comes around. He has hit .283 or higher five out of the previous six seasons, and has never been on base less than 34 percent of the time in the past seven seasons. This is the perfect reason why Choo should be sold high at this point in the season. He brings consistency to the table, but his current numbers could draw in a much bigger name who could bring in power numbers to a team lacking homers or slugging percentage.
Choo has nine homeruns so far this season while hitting .300, and that is easily worth a hitter with more power. Choo is a great asset to have on a time, but if you find your team is losing week after week in power categories, Choo would be a great trade to add a big bat to your lineup.
8. Hisashi Iwakuma - SP, Seattle Mariners
While Hisashi Iwakuma is 32, this is only his second year in the majors with Seattle. Iwakuma went 9-5 in 16 starts last year, but was pretty impressive with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He is off to an even better start in 2013, winning five out of his first 10 starts, while only losing one. The Tokyo native also currently boasts a 2.37 ERA and a .87 WHIP.
But because this is only his second year with the Mariners, owners should try to ship him off for a more proven pitcher. At 32, there’s no telling how age is affecting his play, and pretty much every foreign pitcher a club has tried as of late usually flames out after a season or two. He is a hot name right now, but probably won’t be by the end of the season.
7. Nate McLouth - OF, Baltimore Orioles
Nate McLouth, unlike the traditional outfielder, currently has some of the most steals in the MLB. With 15 stolen bases, on top of a .285 average, McLouth is playing very well. However, his past has shown that these numbers likely won’t hold up for the rest of the season.
McLouth’s career-high for steals in 10 back in 2009, which likely means he’s reached his ceiling in that category. The former Pittsburgh Pirate and Atlanta Brave has also never finished a season with a better batting average than .276. It’s certainly possible he could eclipse both those numbers this year, but it’s not likely, and his current numbers make him tradeable.
6. Mark Reynolds - 1B, Cleveland Indians
Not only is Mark Reynolds’s continued production up for concern, but the overall play of his team is certainly questionable as the games go on. The Cleveland Indians are off to a very hot start at 27-19, but there is no way Cleveland can play the type of baseball they’ve been playing for the rest of the season. It seems like every game either comes down to the wire or the offseason staging a comeback.
Part of the team’s improved offensive ability has been Reynolds, who has already hit 12 homers and driven in 40 runs in 25 games. However, like many other players on this list, Reynolds isn’t likely to keep this up judging his previous numbers. The 29-year-old hit 44 homers in 2009, but only hit 23 last year and he would be obliterating his career-high in RBI if he keeps up this pace.
Either the Indians’ or Reynolds’s play will decrease over the next few months, and either way Reynolds will suffer as a fantasy player.
5. Clay Buchholz - SP, Boston Red Sox
Somehow, a player who posted a 4.56 ERA last season has gotten off to a 7-0 start this season in addition to holding a 1.73 ERA. That is simply too good of a start for one pitcher to be able to keep up. Clay Buchholz has already struck out 73 batters, after striking out 129 last season and 60 in 2011. The seventh-year player has certainly showed spurts of greatness, but he has never been able to play consistently, especially when looking at the 2008 season when he went 2-9 and finished with an ERA over six.
Most owners will see his current stat line and be more than happy to trade for him, only to be disappointed later to learn they traded away one of their best players for Buchholz, who by the end of August, will likely be just over .500 and his ERA will come back to earth.
4. Patrick Corbin - SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
For owners currently in keeper leagues, completely ignore this, as Patrick Corbin will be a great starting pitcher in two or three years. However, for this year, owners should sell him high. He has only started 26 major league games in his young career, but currently has a WHIP under one and an ERA under one and a half. Like Buchholz, Corbin is 7-0, which already eclipsed his win total from his rookie year of six.
Corbin is a great story for now, but there is certainly no guarantee that he can keep up this pace, unless he plans to start breaking pitching records soon.
3. Starling Marte - OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
There has been much discussion this season as to if Starling Marte is the best leadoff hitter in baseball. While this may be the case, that doesn’t mean he belongs on fantasy rosters for the rest of the season. With a .310 batting average along with a .377 on-base percentage, his numbers are great for a leadoff hitter. But fantasy owners would be wise to sell high on Marte, as he is only in his second season in the majors, and 2013 will be his first full year.
Marte’s numbers are great for now, but there is no track record to show what he can do over the course of a full season.
2. Jason Grilli - RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s bad enough that the closer position is the most volatile in the position, but when the player has never been a full-time closer before it’s even more of a concern. While Jason Grilli has played 10 years in the majors, he has never had a season with more than two saves prior to this year when he became the closer in Pittsburgh. He has 19 saves thus far, but one or two blown saves in a row and there is no telling how his mental game could be affected.
Grilli is a great option at relief pitcher right now, but it’s a much safer move to sell him high now than it is to wait and see if he can successfully remain the Pirates’ closer this season.
1. Jean Segura - SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Similar to Corbin, having a young player such as Jean Segura is great to have on a keeper league roster but could really hurt a team for one season if he’s held on to for too long. At only 23, he has many more seasons left in the majors, but he is out to the best start of his career by far with a .351 average, 14 stolen bases and 20 RBI. Segura is at the top of most overall fantasy rankings currently with his numbers, but he is relatively unknown territory with these numbers. Segura only hit .264 in his first season, and he certainly isn’t a power hitter with only 14 homers prior to this season.
The Dominican Republic native certainly has a promising future, but he has never had the experience quite yet to prove that he is worth keeping around for the whole year.