In baseball perhaps more than any other port you have your ups and downs and sometimes those downs can last an entire season. Some players need a rebound more than other due to what they mean to their teams and what it could mean for your fantasy team.
Those players who need to rebound if they had a bad enough season the year before can be had a great price come draft time. If you can identify the players who need to and are capable of rebounding and know how to draft them appropriately it can make a world of difference as to whether or not you win your league.
1. Chris Davis, First Base, Baltimore Orioles
A year after dominating the American league to the tune of a .286 batting average, 53 homeruns, 103 runs, and 138 RBI. Last year Davis only hit .196 with 26 homeruns. Davis is still a legitimate power threat as though 26 homeruns were hit in only 127 games. Davis may not reach that .286 mark again next year as he is only a .253 career hitter, however he should have no problem hitting at least 35 homeruns, and with the loss of Nelson Cruz most the RBI opportunities are going to lie on the shoulders of Davis and Adam Jones.
2. Justin Masterson, Starting Pitcher, Boston Red Sox
Masterson has been an on one year, off the next year kind of pitcher for the last couple of seasons but last year was a really off season. Now Masterson is back with his former team the Red Sox. If he wants to succeed he is going to have to significantly cut back on the walks as he averaged 4.8 BB/9 last year. Masterson won’t have it easy pitching in the A.L. East with some of those powerful offenses. However if he can fix his sinker and slider which were often left up in the zone, for easy hit or nowhere near the zone for easy walks, Masterson should be able to regain his status as a solid number three pitcher and find his place back onto fantasy baseball rosters.
3. Alex Rodriguez, Third Base/Designated Hitter, New York Yankees
A-Rod spent all of last season away from the Yankees after his year long suspension for his link to the biogenesis steroid scandal. Rodriguez has been in decline for the last couple of years. Partly due to age but I think a large part had to do with his lingering hip injury. Now that he has had a full offseason to heal I think Rodriguez will once again find himself in fantasy relevance. Sure he won’t be the hitter he once was but just three seasons ago he hit 30 homers and drive in 125. Rodriguez likely isn’t capable of that type of production anymore but there is certainly value in a weak third base position for a guy who will hit .270 with 20-25 homeruns and 85 RBI.
4. Mike Minor, Starting Pitcher, Atlanta Braves
Minor started last season on the disabled list and it appeared like he may not have ever actually fully healed from that injury. Minor had a breakout year two seasons ago but did a complete 180 last year posting a 4.77 ERA and season after having a 3.21 ERA. Lingering injury woes likely had something to do with this decline but so did the increased walk rate and decreased strikeout rate. The braves sold big this offseason and likely aren’t playing for much but that doesn’t mean Minor can’t have value in fantasy formats. If he has recovered from his shoulder injury he suffered last season Minor is capable of being one of the better starting pitchers roster.
5. Jay Bruce, Outfield, Cincinnati Reds
Jay Bruce had an extremely rough year at the plate last year. Bruce only batted .217 with a measly 18 homeruns. The batting average is the most shocking part albeit it is still a cause for concern, it’s the lack of power that was the most disappointing part of Bruce’s season. Bruce managed to hit 20 or more homeruns in his first three seasons and then had hit 30 or more in each of the last three before last seasons debacle. Bruce needs to rebound in a big way this year and he has the potential to do so as he is only 28 years old and right in the middle of his prime. I fully expect Bruce to get back to 30 homeruns this year and eclipse 100 RBI, although the average will likely still be a liability around the .255 mark.
6. Joe Nathan, Closing Pitcher, Detroit Tigers
Nathan was abysmal for the Tigers last season, although to be fair there weren’t many bright spots in that bullpen a season ago. Even though Nathan is not 40 years old there is little reason to think that he can’t come back this season and finish as a top ten closer at the very least. Before last season Nathan only had an ERA above 3.00 three times in his career but two of those were his first two years in the majors. The Tigers are a very good and there are going to be plenty of opportunities for Nathan to get saves if he can get that BB/9 back under control after posting his third worst rate of his career last season at 4.5.
7. Ryan Braun, Outfield, Milwaukee Brewers
Braun had the worst year of his career last season in many statistical categories (not counting his suspension year). For just the third time in his career he hit under .300 and it was well under .300 and a .266 clip and hit under 20 homeruns for just the first time in his career while playing a full season. Much of this can be a result of the thumb injury he suffered last season. With a full offseason to heal Braun should round right back into all star form.
8. Evan Longoria, Third Base, Tamp Bay Rays
At this point in his career we know exactly who Longoria is. He never turned into the power/average threat people may have thought he’d become but he is better than what he did last year. Longoria had the second lowest average of his career at .253 and matched that with only 22 homeruns. Generally Longoria will be in the range of .270-.280 with around 30 homeruns. Even though there isn’t a ton of protection in the lineup around Longoria He is a talented enough player to produce at a better clip than last season. Part of his struggles was the drastic drop in slugging percentage of nearly 100 points. What makes Longoria great is his ability to get extra base hits, and if he can regain the form that sees him hitting homeruns and doubles to the gap watch out.
9. Justin Verlander, Starting Pitcher, Detroit Tigers
Last year was not the type of season many were expecting from Verlander just a few years after he managed to win the CY Young award and the MVP in the same season. Verlander had the third highest ERA of his career and his worst strikeout rate since 2006. Verlander is 32 now with just under 2000 innings pitched so a decline was to be expected but not this drastically. One promising sing is that his FIP was nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA meaning he was fairly unlucky last year. The Tigers need Verlander to be dominant again if they hope to win and fantasy owners want him to be dominant again so they can reap the benefits from someone who has been one of the better pitchers in all of baseball the last five years.
10. Dustin Pedroia, Second Base, Boston Red Sox
Pedroia had one of the worst years of his career last season. This was very unfortunate for his fantasy owners seeing as when you are one of the best offensive players at a very thin position you tend to get drafted very high. Pedroia had the second lowest batting average and homerun total of his career. He isn’t the most powerful of players but he is usually good for double digit homeruns and a .300 batting average. Even more shocking were the 72 runs scored from a player who has eclipsed 100 runs scored three times in his career. Fortunately for fantasy players Pedroia seems like the kind of player to work his tail off to improve in the offseason after a disappointing year. I have little doubt that this scrappy second baseman will return to being one of the top second baseman in baseball as I think he will once again eclipse double digit homeruns, and steals, and bat around the .300 mark again this year.