The 2012 Major League Baseball season is winding down, with only twenty or so games left to play for each team. The playoff races are heating up, thanks in large part to the expanded wildcard system this year that allows for a second team. The playoff spots aren’t the only thing that can be won or lost at this time of the year. The annual MLB awards can be greatly impacted by stretch runs and individual performances, because let’s be honest sports writers have short memories.

Some interesting story lines have developed as the pursuit of the hardware continues. Will super-rookie Mike Trout join Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki as being named ROY and MVP in the same season? Can the accidental ace of a team with no shot at the playoffs be seriously considered for a Cy Young?

I will answer these questions as we look at the individual awards for both Leagues and dissect who should win and who will win. We start our analysis in the American League with the crowning of the MVP.

The race for AL MVP is really down to three players. Los Angeles ‘don’t call us Anaheim’ Angels Mike Trout, Texas Rangers Josh Hamilton and Detroit Tigers Miguel Cabrera. Closer review shows that this really isn’t much of a race at all, as barring a monumental 0-for slump, this award is all but won.

Josh Hamilton is having a nice statistical year, with .286/.354/.588 rip line. Hamilton is projected to finish the season with about 45 homeruns and 135 RBI, and likely a Division title for the Rangers. This is a solid season, just not in comparison to the season Trout and Cabrera are having. It is a tough case to make, Hamilton currently leads the league in homeruns, RBI’s and is second in runs scored and slugging percentage.

Arguably, Hamilton hasn’t been the most valuable player on his team during the playoff push, as Adrian Beltre has caught fire and allowed the Rangers to keep that division lead on the charging Oakland Athletics. Hamilton will have to be content with his 2010 MVP award, because it’s a one horse race this year.

Miguel Cabrera has been a beast for the Tigers this season and he has put together yet another season worthy of MVP consideration. Cabrera is likely going to finish the season with 40 homers and 135 RBI while hitting near a .330 clip. Should Cabrera not win the award this season, he has the dubious honor of joining Eddie Murray as players who have finished top five in yearly MVP voting without actually taking home the hardware. Another great season from Miguel; unfortunately winning MVP can be as much about timing as it is production, and this just isn’t going to be his year.

Mike Trout is having a better statistical season than Cabrera. Some will argue that Cabrera is the better hitter, and I would agree; however, just not this year. Trout’s WAR is 10.3, Cabrera’s is a respectable 5.8. Should Trout just continue to play modest baseball the rest of the way, he will join the 30-30 club, and become only the second center fielder in history to finish with .330+/.395+/.560+, the other being Willie Mays.

History has shown that baseball writers like to choose MVP’s from playoff teams; however non-playoff teams have had MVP winners on six occasions since the introduction of the wild-card system, so that shouldn’t deter. It also shouldn’t be a deterrent that Trout is playing in his rookie season. Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki both won MVP’s in their rookie seasons. This kid is the most exciting thing in baseball right now and without Trout the Angeles would be playing meaningless baseball right now.

AL MVP SHOULD BE: Mike Trout
AL MVP WILL BE: Mike Trout, the baseball writers get it right and give the award to this phenom.