I realize I’m getting this in a little bit late seeing as there have been three regular season games played thus far, but I assure you that the results of those games hold no bearing on any of my picks. 2013 was a wild year as the gap between “good” teams and “bad” teams narrowed down a little bit.
One team, the Cleveland Indians, made the postseason for the first time since their last division win in 2007 while another team, the Pittsburgh Pirates, won more than half of their games AND made the postseason for the first time since 1992.
As a fitting encore, several teams revamped their lineups and invested millions of dollars into their clubs to continue their success OR throw their hat into the pool of top competitors for an opportune chance to take their slice of the pie. Regardless of how last season or even the last 10 seasons have shaken out, 2014 is anybody’s game, and it will certainly be one that will be talked about for years to come. With that, here are my predictions on how the season will finish.
American League
East: Boston Red Sox- With back-to-back title hopes in their path, the Red Sox found themselves in a bit of a pickle after the champagne dried in 2013. Their star centerfielder, Jacoby Ellsbury, went the way of former 2004 stud Johnny Damon as he signed with the New York Yankees for seven years. Other than that, the Red Sox didn’t lose much. To fill in for the hole that Jarrod Saltalamacchia left the team signed veteran A.J. Pierzynski and then brought in Grady Sizemore to compete for the hole left by Ellsbury. With their needs filled, the Red Sox are basically the same team that nobody thought was going to make the playoffs in 2013. Whoops!
Central: Detroit Tigers- Even with the loss of skipper Jim Leyland the Tigers are in good hands with rookie skipper Brad Ausmus, but mostly because he was handed on of the greatest teams ever assembled without breaking a sweat. With Prince Fielder and Omar Infante out General Manager Dave Dombrowsky brought in All-Stars Ian Kinsler and Joe Nathan to fill in their needs at second base and in the closer role. While the loss of Doug Fister will cause problems down the road in regard to their starting pitching depth, expect quality outings from Cy Young winners Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer all season long. Plus, it wouldn’t be too shocking if Dombrowsky picks up another quality arm down the road.
West: Oakland Athletics- No matter how much the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels “revamp their team,” they’ll never be able to match the chemistry and overall grit that the Athletics personify every time they take the field. Even with the loss of Jarrod Parker for the season manager Bob Melvin found a diamond in the rough in the bullpen in Jesse Chavez to fill the gap until A.J. Griffin returns from his arm injury in early May. The other great thing the Athletics have going for them this season is an even deeper bullpen than in years past with the additions of Jim Johnson and Luke Gregerson. You should also expect to see at least two guys, if not three, crush 30 or more home runs this season: Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes.
Wild Card #1: Kansas City Royals- Last season, the Pirates broke their hex after 20 years, this season will mark the first time the Royals have touched the postseason since winning the World Series in 1985. Years of “things are getting better” are finally coming to a close as Royals’ GM Dayton Moore has finally assembled a team that can put up some serious numbers in the win-column which include Jason Vargas, Danny Valencia, Norichika Aoki and Infante. This is all on top of the studs they currently have on the payroll: James Shields, Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez.
Wild Card #2: Tampa Bay Rays- This one is a bit of a long shot for the sole reason of whether or not David Price will be around for the entire season. The mystery that comes with this lies heavily on what the Rays will get in return for the former Cy Young winner. Outside of that, the Rays, like the Athletics, are made up of guys who work well with one another and love playing for their manager Joe Maddon. Maddon is easily one of the best managers in the game and can handle any wrench in the gears that comes his way. Matt Moore, Alex Cobb and new closer Grant Balfour will get work done on the mound while Evan Longoria, James Loney and 2013 Rookie of the Year Wil Myers will clean up at the plate.
National League
East: Washington Nationals- 2013 was a bit of a hiccup for the Nationals who easily won their first division title in franchise history (including the Montreal Expos years) in 2012. Bryce Harper spent a good chunk of time on the DL, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez didn’t pitch up to snuff and Jayson Werth was really the only consistent bat in the lineup. This year is different. This year the starting rotation bumped up a notch with Fister coming in from the Tigers and a solid call up of Anthony Rendon will help keep the offense full charged.
Central: St. Louis Cardinals- This one is legitimately the only no brainer. The Cardinals are still sore from losing the World Series this last season and they did everything in their power to fill any possible hole to prevent that from happening again. Even with the loss of Carlos Beltran the Cards have a healthy Allen Craig who can take his place in right field, leaving first base open for Matt Adams. The Cards also signed Jhonny Peralta to fill in any left side of the infield needs they might have as well as put another solid bat in the lineup. This of course is all next to the fact that Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly, Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller make up one of the youngest and deadliest rotations in the Majors.
West: San Diego Padres- There always has to be one “from out of nowhere” pick and the Padres are certainly looking to shock the world in 2014. Bud Black is a terrific manager who has certainly had his ups and downs over the years, but the additions of Josh Johnson, Seth Smith and Joaquin Benoit are surely going to pay off as the season progresses. The most important thing that the Padres really need are strong years from Chase Headley, Everth Cabrera and Yonder Alonso on offense and a rebound year from Ian Kennedy to make this a reality.
Wild Card #1: Atlanta Braves- Even though the Braves are the first Wild Card spot, it doesn’t mean that they’re going to have a bad year. In fact, this spot and the NL East title are probably going to be separated by two-to-three games. The Braves have a tremendous amount of talent; however, a lot of those players got paid handsomely during the offseason which, in some cases, has a tendency to lean toward a drop in production because the player is a little more carefree. The bigger problem the Braves are facing is the loss of a fair chunk of their starting pitchers due to injuries: Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and Gavin Floyd. Beachy and Medlen are pretty much toast for the year, but the other two will be back to restore the balance. Offensively the Braves really need Evan Gattis to fill Brian McCann’s shoes in a hurry.
Wild Card #2: Los Angeles Dodgers- There are very few critics who don’t have the Dodgers winning the NL West title, and clearly I’m the one in a small few who barely has them making the playoffs. What happened in 2013 was a bit of a fluke, but the players certainly knew how to capitalize on it. Hanley Ramirez will be expected to be the catalyst to get things going on offense with Adrian Gonzalez backing him up. Clayton Kershaw will have another great season as soon as he comes back from his slight injury, but realistically Hyun-Jin Ryu is the only other above average pitcher the Dodgers have in their rotation. It’s also 50-50 on whether or not Yasiel Puig will have a solid sophomore season and the fact that the team has three closers in their bullpen (Kenley Jansen, Brian Wilson and Chris Perez) is a recipe for disaster*.
*To be honest, I could see the Dodgers not even making the playoffs and the Miami Marlins storming through in the end. Yes, really.
Playoffs
American League
Wild Card: Rays over Royals
Division Series: Athletics over Rays and Red Sox over Tigers
Championship Series: Athletics over Red Sox
National League
Wild Card: Braves over Dodgers
Division Series: Nationals over Padres and Cardinals over Braves
Championship Series: Nationals over Cardinals
World Series: Athletics over Nationals- I realize how much of a homer pick this is, but I assure you that this is the first year that I have honestly felt like the Athletics have a legitimate shot at going all the way. The biggest part of it will depend on whether they’ll have to face the Tigers at all in the postseason.
This matchup has been a kiss of death for the Athletics every year they’ve made the postseason since 2006. If they’re able to escape them or actually beat them to shake the monkey off of their back they’ll be a shoo-in as champions. The other thing to note from this season is how they’ll do against the NL East during the regular season as this is the season they’ll be facing one another: Nationals in Oakland and the Braves in Atlanta are the two series to keep an eye on.