In fantasy there are a select number of guys who are set to break out each year and then there are guys who turn out to be busts. The guys who are busts are the ones you want to stay away from and these are the players we are going to analyze as I take a look at five potential busts for this season.
A bust doesn’t have to be someone who is necessarily going to have a bad season but it could be a player who broke through last year and as a result is going to be taken higher in the draft than he should. Identifying these players is a huge component to winning a fantasy baseball league. By avoiding a player who is bust you avoid wasting a draft pick an boost your odds at winning a championship.
1. Justin Morneau, First Base, Colorado Rockies
Morneau came back in a big way last season after struggling for many years at the plate. We haven’t seen that type of production out of Morneau since the 2009 season. While, his umbers will likely remain slightly inflated as long as he playing half his games at Coors Field, however he is 34 now and a duplication form last years season is extremely unlikely. You are more likely going to get a mixture between last seasons numbers due to the Coors Field effect and some of the numbers that Morneau hit for the in 2010-2013. Morneau will likely remain around the 15 homerun mark but his average of .319 form last year is unsustainable form the aging veteran who is a .281 career hitter.
2. Michael Brantley, Outfield, Cleveland Indians
This is going to be a very unpopular pick as a lot of people really like Brantley but I just don’t see a repeat performance. This isn’t to say he still won’t be a viable fantasy option but based on where people are going to be drafting him this year after last year performance he is classified as a bust. Brantley is only 28 so he is right in the middle of his prime but I am skeptical of a guy repeating a season after breaking all his other previous hitting high by a rather large margin. Last year was the first time Brantley went over 10 homeruns, 66 runs, 73 RBI and 17 steals. He also hit over .300 for the first time in his career other than in 2009 when he played in only 28 games. Before of the Brantley hype as he is a good player but people are drafting him amongst the greats and I just don’t see that happening.
3. Jose Bautista, Outfield, Toronto Blue Jays
Bautista has been one of the premier power hitters in baseball since bursting onto the scene in 2010 and hit 54 homeruns. Bautista is starting to get up there in age now as he will be 34 this season and you just don’t see people produce superstar numbers once they get to reach that age. I don’t think that he will lose all of his power at once but certainly a drop is to be expected this year. Bautista is likely going to bat around his career average number of .258 with about 25 homeruns. While that is still a good fantasy season when you consider that he will be drafted before the tenth round that’s not the kind of value you want from what is a very deep position.
4. Lance Lynn, Starting Pitcher, St. Louis Cardinals
Lynn probably helped win a lot of people games last year with his breakout season. Lynn’s ERA was a full run better than any ERA he has had in any full season. Lynn does an amazing job at keeping the ball in the ball park but his WHIP is far too high because of the walks that he issues. Lynn had lady luck on his side last year as his ERA was nearly a full run lower than his FIP. Pitching for the Cardinals is going to yield its fair share of wins for the pitcher but expect that ERA to shoot back up around 3.70 if he isn’t able to control his pitches better next season.
5. Alfredo Simon, Starting pitcher, Detroit Tigers
Simon was brilliant last year in his first full season as a starter. Simon had a 3.44 ERA and nearly went for 200 innings pitched, by far a career high. There are several reasons you should be skeptical on drafting Simon next season, even though eh doesn’t have the wear and tear on his arm of most pitchers his age. Simon had a 3.44 ERA last year but his FIP was 4.33 nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. Simon is not much of a strikeout pitcher, only a 6.3K/9 for his career which puts a limit on his overall fantasy value. You also have to be wary of the fact that Simon has never pitched for anywhere near the type of innings that he threw for last season. Simon threw 110 more innings last season than he did before so I would expect him to have some wear and tear on his arm that he isn’t accustomed to. Those factors mixed with the fact that he is back in the American League where he has to deal with designated hitters and not pitchers. Stay far away from Simon this year unless you want to be disappointed.