Texas Rangers’ starting pitcher, Yu Darvish, is off to a tremendous start to the 2013 season.  He’s 7-1 with a 2.97 earned run average in his nine starts this year.  A key to his early success is the run support he has been getting.  He gets an average of 7.22 runs per game from his offense, which is second most in the majors.  However, his pitching statistics have been on a downtrend in his last four starts compared to his first five.  In his first five starts, he compiled a 1.65 earned run average while not giving up a single home run in 32.2 innings pitched.  In his last four starts, his earned run average has ballooned to 4.50 and he has given up seven home runs in his last 28 innings pitches. 

Darvish has been the Rangers’ workhorse this year, averaging 6.2 innings pitched per start.  However, coming off a 130 pitch performance this week,  his pitch count leaves some people wondering if the Rangers’ coaching staff is working him too hard.  He is averaging 109 pitches thrown per start, which is tops in the majors.  It doesn’t seem to have taken a toll on him so far, but if this trend continues throughout the season, his arm could be very fatigued come playoff time. 

Last year through his 29 starts, Darvish also averaged 109 pitches per game and finished with a respectable 16-9 record.  So he has proved that his arm can take a beating and still be productive.  However, if he stays healthy all year and reaches 35 starts, there’s no telling what could happen.  Those six starts and roughly 655 pitches could be the difference between a healthy arm and Tommy John surgery.  Last year Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander averaged almost 115 pitches per game over his 33 starts, and he is still going strong; but he is a freak of nature and this isn’t a fair comparison.

Some information that will be useful in determining if Darvish can sustain pitch counts like we’re seeing this year are his pitch counts from two years playing ball in Japan.  In 2010, he averaged a staggering 129 pitches per game through 26 starts.  In 2011, the average came down significantly, settling at 121 pitches per game through 28 starts.  His 109 pitch average this season looks miniscule compared to his number in Japan, right?  At first glance, yes.  However, we have to take into account that in Japanese baseball, pitchers are normally on a seven day rotation, compared the five day rotation traditionally used in North America.  In his two years in Japan, Darvish NEVER pitched on less than six days rest. 

So far through three plus years playing professional baseball, Yu Darvish’s pitch counts have been troublingly high.  It seems as though his average pitch count has decreased significantly from his days playing in Japan, but those numbers are deceiving due to the discrepancy in days of rest between starts.  Despite his high pitch counts so far in his career, he has managed to put together three above average seasons.  Darvish once threw 156 pitches in a game in 2010, and in his two years in Japan reached the 145 pitch mark eight times.  So, throwing 130 pitches in a start this season shouldn’t have Rangers’ fans worried.  Darvish has proven that despite high pitch counts, he can sustain success throughout a full season.