Kyle Lohse is a good pitcher.  He’s accumulated an impressive 30 wins against 11 losses through 2011 and 2012. In that time, he’s logged a 3.00 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP.  Sounds like a great No. 2 pitcher on your favorite club’s staff, no?

MLB is well into spring training and Kyle Lohse remains unemployed.

What gives?

With baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement, clubs signing those free agent players classified as Tier One are required to give up their upcoming first-round draft pick and assigned signing money in the amateur baseball draft.  Tier One players conjure images of Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Zack Greinke, which is all true.

  But Lohse’s outstanding 2012 performance “luckily” landed him in the same elite tier. As a result, clubs are increasingly reluctant to go after all but the best Tier One free agents.  The only teams that can effectively “work” the new CBA in this respect are baseball’s bottom dwellers, as their first round pick is protected for the worst-10 teams from the prior season.   It’s loopholes like this that allowed the lowly Cleveland Indians to net the third-best 2013 free agent (Michael Bourn) for just $48M over four years.

Lohse is a reliable pitcher, coming off a career year, and he’s pitched in the postseason six different seasons.  Surely there’s a pennant-hungry club out there ready to bite?  Let’s assess the leading clubs.

Texas Rangers

Points in Favor:

• The Rangers have suffered through a miserable offseason, losing OF Josh Hamilton to division rivals Los Angeles Angels. They lost out on their number one target Zack Greinke to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  In a competitive division, they remain a club with players at the peak of their game. 
• Just this week, the Rangers lost SP Martin Perez to injury, opening a hole in their starting rotation.  Landing Lohse on a three-year deal would solidify their rotation and all questions as to their position in the AL West relative to the Athletics and Angels.
• By losing Hamilton, the Rangers acquired the 22nd pick in the 2013 amateur draft, so losing the 25th (their pick, if they sign Lohse) would be mitigated.

Points Against:

• The Rangers have publicly stated they are not interested in Lohse, which may have to do with agent Scott Boras’ contract demands.
• As a finesse pitcher, Lohse’s stuff may not translate well to the AL, particularly the AL West.

Cleveland Indians

Point in Favor:

• The Indians have already saved face with Scott Boras this offseason by signing Bourn.  They’ve also acquire other elite talent (Nick Swisher, Mark Reynolds and Trevor Bauer). As a result of the Swisher and Bourn signings, signing an additional Tier One free agent would only mean forfeiting their third-round pick in the 2013 amateur draft.  That amounts to losing a long-shot lottery ticket.

Points Against:

• The small budget Indians have already added significant payroll this offseason, while the club does not seem geared for 2013 Al Central contention. 
• There’s no screaming need on the pitching staff, while the club doesn’t seem to have the profile of looking for one final player to make a big playoff push.

Milwaukee Brewers

Points in Favor:

• While the Brewers are going through some transition, ushering young players into their regular lineup, they remain playoff-viable, as these are prime production years from Ryan Braun, Richie Weeks and Chris Gomez. 

• Fans have flocked to Miller Park and ownership may be tempted to reply with a free agent signing that would improve what is a weak starting rotation. Lohse has excelled with the Cardinals in the NL Central, so there’s no reason to fear that his finesse pitching repertoire will fail in Milwaukee.

Points Against:

• The Brewers own the 17th pick in the upcoming amateur draft and may be reluctant to part with the pick.  Their minor league system was gutted to make pennant-winning trades in past years (Grienke, CC Sabathia, Shaun Marcum) and this may be a chance to re-stock the system. 
• The Brewers have not had good luck with past Boras clients (K Rod, losing Prince Fielder), so there may be some reluctance to throw Boras and his client a life-line as they approach the regular season sans contract.

Prediction

Lohse will end up in Texas.  The club's too good and ready for 2013 success, so worrying about a lowly draft pick loss is just posturing. As spring training winds down, Lohse’s bargaining power will erode.  Boras and Lohse may be forced to sign a club-friendly two or three year deal.