It's that time of the season, the final days of July when the rumor mill around baseball is firing on all cylinders and we start to see a lot of smoke turn into fire as buyers and sellers set up their organizations for a playoff run or unloading older talent and bringing in prospects. While there's been a lot of smoke and no action in recent weeks, the first trade has arrived and Ken Rosenthal was first on it.
The Oakland Athletics took another step towards selling for the upcoming July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, sending Scott Kazmir to the division foe Houston Astros, with prospects Jacob Nottingham and RHP Daniel Mengden going to Oakland. It's not often you see two teams in the same division make a major trade like this, but it's a great indication of the direction each of these teams are going.
No one expected the Astros to be this good so quickly, but here they stand at 53-43, just two games back of the A.L. West-leading Los Angeles Angels. But for all of the positives the Astros have shown this year, they needed to bring in a number-two starting pitcher if they want to contend with the big dogs in the American League and have a shot in the playoffs.
Their rotation has been anchored by Dallas Keuchel, the 27-year-old started for the American League in the All Star Game this year and carries a 2.12 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 20 starts this season. But once you got past Keuchel, they have to rely on two rookies in Vincent Velasquez and Lance McCullers, along with veterans Collin McHugh and Scott Feldman
Velasquez and McCullers have certainly shown the ability to be No.2 or No.2 starters, but this is their first run in the majors and the Astros want to limit their innings. Velasquez has a history of injuries and pitched just 64 innings last year after 124 IP in A-ball the year before. Meanwhile, McHugh has a 4.25 ERA and Feldman is returning from a torn meniscus in his knee.
Kazmir, a Houston native, slides in perfectly right behind Keuchel and gives the Astros' rotation stability it desperately needed. While Kazmir's name wasn't thrown around in the rumor mill with the likes of Cole Hamels, David Price and Johnny Cueto, but Kazmir's 2.38 ERA is the 10th-best in all of baseball and his 1.09 WHIP is 14th-best in the majors.
This is exactly the move Houston needed and they kept their top-10 prospect group intact, thanks to Kazmir's contract ending at the end of the season. As part of MLB's recent collective bargaining agreement, a team trading for a player on the last year of their deal will not receive draft pick compensation if the player rejects their qualifying offer.
For the Athletics, this is the first of several moves likely on the horizon. IF/OF Ben Zobrist has been one of the hottest trade commodities on the market and closer Tyler Clippard will likely be dealt as well. While Nottingham and Mengden were not in any site's Top-100 prospects list, both have some upside. Mengden was a fourth-round pick in the 2014 Amateur Draft and Nottingham has shown nice offensive tools in A-ball, slashing .326/.383/.558 with 14 home runs in 76 games between A-ball and High-A.
Fantasy Spin
From a fantasy perspective, Kazmir is the only player that fantasy players are truly curious about. Playing at the O.co Coliseum, there are spacious walls and it allows fly ball pitchers more security in limiting home runs. Minute Maid Park in Houston isn't as forgiving, allowing an average of 1.194 home runs per game versus O.co's 0.824 home runs per game.
There have already been some saying Kazmir's fantasy value will take a hit in Houston with the park change, but his 46 percent ground ball percentage shows he is more of a ground ball pitcher. The Athletics lead the league in errors with 85, that's 37 more errors than the Astros have. So while he may give up a few more home runs with the Astros, he will have a much better defense behind him to limit the errors and get more outs.
If you are a Kazmir owner in your fantasy league, don't fret about the trade. Kazmir will continue to be a stud on your team and his numbers should remain strong. In deeper leagues, you could look to take a flier on Drew Pomeranz, but it's far from confirmed that he will take Kazmir's rotation spot