In an instant, the biggest domino of the MLB Trade Deadline fell. On Monday, the Oakland Athletics traded away starting pitcher Sonny Gray to the New York Yankees. In a move that further drives the A's complete tear down, the haul of prospects headed to Oakland will boost its farm system into the upper echelon of baseball. YES Network's Jack Curry first reported the deal.
Gray always seemed to be New York's top target in the days and weeks before the trade deadline. Now they've landed their coveted starter. In Gray, New York acquires a right-handed starter who will provide them quality innings as a top-tier starter that will slide in between Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka, to give New York a strong trio at the front of its rotation.
While the 2016 season proved to be a disaster for Gray, the 27-year-old turned things around and posted some strong numbers for the Athletics. Across 97 innings, Gray posted a 3.43 ERA and carried an excellent 3.24 FIP to pair with it and give it some substance.
In fact, Gray's 2017 numbers with the A's are right up there with some of the best statistics of his career. His 82 ERA- and 3.70 SIERA, are right in line with the numbers that put him on A.L. Cy Young ballots and made him so loved in Oakland.
To start, just look at how often hitters across from him failed. Opponents hit .228 against him across his first 16 starts this season and Gray's ERA show signs of further improvement given his 64.6 percent left-on-base rate is 10 percent lower than his LOB percentage across 2013-'15.
Gray did the Athletics and himself favors with some of his best pitching performances coming in the past several weeks, when scouts started to flock in and determine if their teams should pursue him. The 27-year-old demonstrated his best stuff nearly every start and the numbers back it up.
In his last 10 starts before the trade deadline, Gray posted a 2.73 ERA, 2.77 FIP and missed more bats than earlier in the year. Gray's 24.6 percent strikeout rate and 16.8 percent K minus BB ratio are noted improvements over the 21.5 percent strikeout rate and 14.6 percent K-BB percentage from his first four starts.
While a move away from Oakland Alameda Coliseum to the short porches in Yankee Stadium isn't pleasant, there are factors that should help Gray's performance. The most important, he'll never suffer through the A's porous defense again.
Oakland's fielders found themselves at the bottom of the majors in nearly every defensive category. Oakland is last Defensive Runs Above Average (-48), and consider the second-worst team defensively holds a -32.5 Def.
The Athletics are also last in Defensive Runs Saved (-51) and are last in UZR/150, which is more than twice as bad as the second-worst defense in baseball.
Now compare that to the Yankees ranks defensively. New York is 12th in Defensive Runs Above Average (2.9), is significantly better in terms of Defensive Runs Saved (-7) and they have the eighth-best UZR/150 in baseball (2.4).
The improved defense behind him will be a major plus, but Gray should also be more comfortable when he takes the mound as he carries the knowledge his teammates won't have any trouble scoring runs. New York scored 106 more runs than the Athletics in just three more games.
With the defense, more run support and the added competitive fire and energy that comes from being on a playoff contender, Gray should continue to put up strong numbers even as he transitions to Yankee Stadium and the A.L. East. His ERA may tick up some, but Gray will pick up a lot of wins and give New York another strong rotation mate as they remain in the thick of the playoff hunt and look to do battle for the divisional crown with Boston.
If the Yankees make the postseason, the outlook with the trio of starting pitchers and a phenomenal bullpen with David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman can drive opposing teams crazy in a five or seven-game series. Joe Girardi will have a plethora of options and with starters that could go six-plus quality innings, then mix and match his relievers for the final three to seal a potential victory.
But this is even more so about the future for the Yankees. New York wanted Gray not just for what he could do this season, but because of his contract. Gray is due under $1.2 million over the remainder of the season and arbitration eligible in 2018 and '19. So while he will be headed for a big raise in arbitration, New York will have him under team control as they continue to rise over the next several seasons.
For Oakland, the rebuild continues as it continues to improve its farm system. The immediate reaction is to question the risk the organization takes on with two prospects that are in the midst of recovery from major surgeries and a third prospect who has disapointed thus far. But for all of the risk that comes in the James Kaprelian, Dustin Fowler and Jorge Mateo trio, there is even more upside.
Kaprelian, is a 23-year-old southpaw who offers immense promise but is on his way back from Tommy John Surgery. He previously missed nearly the entire 2016 season with a flexor strain and when issues persisted in his throwing arm, went under the knife. So with much of 2016 and the entire 2017 season missed, A's fans are left to hope he can return to the stuff he displayed before arm injuries sidelined.
He drew a consensus 60-grade fastball by MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs, in addition to a future 60-grade slider, 55-grade and a potential 55-changeup. He showed plus ability to miss bats at a high rate and he located his pitches consistently well. But those traits still need to translate to the field against minor-league competition, which we haven't seen given Kaprelian holds just 29 1/3 innings on his minor-league resume.
Kaprelian alone is a significant gamble, but Oakland took it a step further with Fowler. The 22-year-old came up for his MLB debut on June 29, but the inning before his first at bat, Fowler crashed into a low railing in foul territory and ruptured his right patella tendon, which brought up memories of Moonlight Graham and the movie "Field of Dreams".
If Fowler can return to complete health, there are plenty of tools to get excited about. Fowler's hit tool drew at times a 60-caliber grade, 50-grade raw power and 60-grade speed.
To look at what Fowler could do on the field, just glimpse at his numbers this season in Triple-A. Across 313 plate appearances, Fowler posted a .293/.329/.542, .378 wOBA and 137 wRC+. He consistently showed off his power and speed with 13 home runs, 13 stolen bases and a .249 isolated power.
Strikeouts presented an issue for Fowler however. His 20.1 percent strikeout, which more than quadrupled his 4.8 walk percentage. The strikeout rate represented a career-worst, but a BB/K sits under 0.3 for his career. That paired with the long-term concerns of his return from the torn patella tendon, make him another high-risk/high-reward piece.
Mateo is a one-trick pony of a prospect and his resume raises alarming notes, though he is at least healthy. The 22-year-old second baseman just received a promotion to Double-A, but only after he spent two and a half seasons in High-A. While the promotion seemed like good news, Mateo still encountered issues at High-A more than two years into his time there. Across 69 games, Mateo posted a .240/.288/.400 slash line with a .316 wOBA and 98 wRC+.
Mateo's first taste of Double-A has yielded positive results thus far. In 140 plate appearances owns a .300/.381/.525, .398 wOBA and a 147 wRC+. His 11 stolen bases over that time now give him 39 combined on the year. Mateo's 80-level speed draws plenty of comparisons to Billy Hamilton, who also struggles to hit.
The 22-year-old could transition at some point to center field, where his speed could play even more and a present 40-hit tool would be more acceptable. He still offers a future 50-hit tool, which could turn him into an annual leader in stolen bases, but he hasn't shown that ability yet.
Oakland hopes a change of scenery and a different environment from the organization he has been with since 2012, could turn things around.
We won't be able to give this trade fair due until five years from now, but it will turn out one of two ways. Either Oakland walked away from this with a great return and landed multiple starters, or they just gave away Gray for pitchers whose injuries and poor performance derailed their careers.