On Friday, free agent right hander Brandon McCarthy agreed to a two year, $15.5M contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The former Oakland Athletic will move from the AL to NL West and join what is currently a loaded pitching staff, headed by Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley, youngsters Tyler Skaggs, Trever Bauer, Patrick Corbin, and 2011 standout (and 2012 injury victim) Daniel Hudson.
The world loves Brandon McCarthy. He’s a smart, gregarious major-leaguer; he gives speeches at sabermetric baseball junkets in the offseason, he’s an astute twitter-er, and he really knows how to evaluate advanced baseball statistics to gain an edge in his game. Before 2011, he studied pitch f/X to identify the root cause of his homer-prone ways and subsequently scrapped his four-seam fastball. Despite low strikeout totals, he’s become a groundball machine, as nearly 50% of his balls in play hit into the ground. He averaged just 0.6 HR/9 innings over the past two years. When healthy, he’s one of baseball’s best starting pitchers, as he’s compiled 6.6 WAR in the past two seasons.
The qualifier here is healthy. McCarthy’s totaled just 60 GS since 2008, as he’s consistently battled shoulder injuries. 2012 was the first season in which his shoulder held together fine – and instead he suffered a life-threatening, season-ending injury to the skull that resulted in emergency brain surgery.
Coming off surgery, there’s no reason to think that McCarthy won’t be ready to start 2013 in the crowded Diamondbacks starting rotation. Considering the far-inferior Joe Blanton received the same contract from the Angels, the Diamondbacks signed a McCarthy to a bargain contract that does not require him to be consistently healthy in order to deliver value on the $15.5M. McCarthy delivered 1.8 WAR in 18 2012 starts; as baseball free agent contracts typically value WAR at $5.5M/1 WAR, McCarthy doesn’t need to be healthy for 30 starts per season. If he can pitch at the same performance levels he’s exhibited through 2011 and 2012, averaging just 15 to 18 starts per season, he’ll easily provide value to the Diamondbacks.
In a beefed-up NL West that features the World Champion San Francisco Giants and behemoth Los Angeles Dodgers, Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers is making smart moves to keep pace with his division rivals. Despite a pitching surplus, he’s acquired a top performer for his rotation that can be replaced with major league-ready depth when (if) he lands on the disabled list.