The 2012 Chicago Cubs began a long over-due organization overhaul, with new President Theo Epstein focused on developing a long-term blueprint for success on Chicago’s North Side. The club avoided signing veteran free agents, instead focused on building a stronger minor league system and providing younger players with trade value with MLB playing time. All necessary steps in building a Cubs organization built for long-term success in a way not seen under prior GM Jim Hendy.
While the Cubs remain a long way being competitive in the NL Central, there are promising young players on the Cubs roster. Shortstop Starlin Castro and second baseman Darwin Barney provide a dynamic up-the-middle combination well suited for the top of the Cubs’ lineup. Anthony Rizzo looks the prototypical power-oriented, corner bat the Cubs have lacked since Derrick Lee’s departure. There are more players on the way, as Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer drafted well in 2012, filling the minor league system with potential impact players.
Nonetheless, the NL Central is a challenging division and the Cubs are a long way from the likes of the Cardinals and Reds.
Their position makes the signing of starting pitchers Edwin Jackson and Carlos Villanueva more surprising.
Free agent pitcher Edwin Jackson has signed a four year, $52M deal ($13M AAV) with the Cubs, while Carlos Villanueva signed a two year, $10M deal ($5M) AAV. The fast-forward on the Cub’s rebuilding seems to have begun.
Jackson, with his eighth team in six years, in 2012 signed a one-year contract with the Washington Nationals on a one-year contract. Jackson had been re-buffed in his efforts to sign a long-term contract and settled for a one-year “pillow” contract with the Nationals. His 2012 pitching performance was in-line with his career averages, as he finished with 10 wins, 11 losses and a 4.03 ERA. His advanced peripherals told a better story, as he managed 7.97 SO/9 innings, just a .285 BABIP and a 3.85 FIP. Jackson has long tantalized clubs with his plus fastball (2012 average of 93.5 MPH) and killer slider combination, but his inconsistency, straight fastball and tendency for high pitch counts have left many-a-club less than satisfied. He offers the Cubs a front-rotation starter that can be banked on for 30+ starts, 200 innings and a WAR between 2.5 and 4.0.
Villanueva has been with the Toronto Blue Jays the past two years, operating as the swingman alternating between the rotation and the bullpen. In 2012, he started 16 games while relieving an additional 18 as their long man from the bullpen. Late in the 2012 season, Villanueva indicated an interest in securing a contract that guaranteed him a rotation spot; he has the pitch variety (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup) to keep hitters on their toes multiple times through the lineup. However, he’s shown an inability to stick as a starter as the season progresses; in 2012, Villanueva held a low-3.00 ERA into August before imploding with an 8.10 ERA in September. As he has not been stretched out as a starter for a full season, the Cubs may stretch out his arm and hope to obtain good value for his $5M AAV.
These signings do seem strange, considering the Cubs’ current position. Jackson, entering his age-30 season will not get better as he enters his four-year deal and the Cubs did not get any bargain in the signing ($14M AAV translates to 2.5-3 WAR per season, in line with Jackson’s career line). The Cubs had already signed a number of inning-eater pitchers this offseason (Scott Feldman, Scott Baker) so there was no pressing need to fill the rotation at this point in the team’s development curve. I suspect they see Jackson as their rotation ace, enabling them to trade Matt Garza once he starts the season healthy. Villanueva is a challenge pickup, offering the Cubs an arm that has the stuff to emerge as a rotation regular, but one that can fill needs in the bullpen if his arm does not hold up to 30+ starts.