The Cleveland Indians have been one of the surprise teams so far this season. Tallying a 23-17 record thus far. The Tribe have been especially hot as of late, winning 15 of their last 19. Cleveland has been led by a variety of players and this article will take a look at the statistics of some of their players with predictions of who has the biggest chance to have sustained success in fantasy baseball.
Those who will most likely improve
Jason Kipnis
Kipnis has the led the Majors in RBI's during the month of May so far, so as one can tell he is already starting to tear the cover off the ball. Kipnis stroked the first walk-off homer of his career on Friday night, to the lead the Tribe to another victory. Kipnis started the season out struggling, flirting with a batting average on the wrong side of .200 in April, but he has started to play better in the month of May. Although Kipnis is hitting only .244 on the year, in the past seven days he has been able to hit .368, with three home runs. Kipnis has not had a lot of luck with his batting average on Balls In Play and so expect him to turn it around. His power numbers have been abnormally high, but as a young player that is still improving, Kipnis is flashing pop that could make him a 20-plus home run-type of player.
Asdrubal Cabrera
Cabrera, like Kipnis, started the year off in a struggle. His current .233 average evidences this slump. Cabrera has started to show some improvement though, hitting .291 in the last 28 days. Cabrera, also like Kipnis, has not seen a lot of his hits find holes, so expect a few more bounces to go his way moving forward. Not as much as Kipnis though. My theory on Cabrera is that he is upset that he was put on the trading block during the summer and this has made some negative effects on his play. Cabrera and Kipnis both have had issues with plate discipline, both striking out at an alarmingly high rate. Cabrera’s career average strikeout rate is 16.7%, but this season he is striking out in 23.1% of plate appearances. This, coupled with his low walk rate (7.5%), has reduced Cabrera’s contact rating to a career-low 69.4%. If Cabrera can start putting the ball in play more, his hits are bound to start falling.
Two players who cannot sustain their start:
Mark Reynolds
Reynolds has looked like the biggest bargain in all of baseball’s past off-season. He has hit an AL-leading 11 kome runs already but was only signed to a one-year deal worth around $6 million. Reynolds, who notoriously led the league in strikeouts from 2008-2011, posting unbelievable K numbers as high as 223 and 204. Reynolds has also hit for a higher average than he typically has. For a career .236 batter, Reynolds has hit much better and was even around the .300 mark at one point in the season. Reynolds, is entering the prime of his career, so I predict that he will continue to show small improvements, but unfortunately, the best is probably behind him for this season.
Carlos Santana
Two weeks ago, Santana was leading the league in batting average. Evidence of his cooling down has been pretty obvious has his average has dropped down to a .320 level. Santana is one of the best young catchers in the game (27 years old). Santana has always shown a great eye at the plate and this year has been no different. Santana likely won’t be able to keep up his average, but he will continue to draw walks and hit the occasional home run. Don’t expect this guy to bat .300 on the year, but a .290 type of year seems to be his ceiling. Santana’s BABIP has been .419, which is definitely unsustainable, so a slump may be on the horizon for the young slugger.
The Indians have been a complete surprise to many in baseball and the biggest key to their success has been pitching. The resurgence of Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir coupled with the ace potential that has been shown by Justin Masterson has been the biggest surprise. The Indians have one of the best bullpens in the game and one of the best line-ups right now. That lineup eighth in the majors in runs scored with 197. They are also eighth in batting average, hitting .263. The Tribe also leads the league in Slugging Percentage and is among the leaders in home runs. The key moving forward will be the starting rotation, however, which was the perceived weakness coming into the year. If Cleveland can continue to get quality starting pitching, they have a chance to compete in the AL Central and will have a great chance at a wild card. I still wouldn’t pick up any of their starters outside of Masterson, unless you have an extra roster spot.
BONUS
My dark-horse candidate in a dynasty league, or any league really, would be 25-year-old Zach McAllister. McAllister leads the Indians in ERA, with a very solid 2.68. McAllister has shown great Strikeout potential in the past, including his first full season in the Majors last year, when he struck out 9.6 per nine innings. This season he is only striking out 8.2 per nine, but his WHIP is a lowly 1.214 and is K:BB ratio is 2.54. If McAllister can continue at this rate, he may be one a low-cost and high-reward type of option in your fantasy league.