Curious Moves: Boston Red Sox Sign OF Shane Victorino

A day after announcing the signing of first baseman/catcher Mike Napoli, the Red Sox continued their roster remake, signing former Phillie' and Dodger' Shane Victorino to a three year, $37M deal.  The deal makes for an annual average value (AAV) of $12.3M and considering two of Victorino’s three past seasons, confirms that money flows like water in baseball.

Shane Victorino comes to Boston with eight solid seasons to his resume, all of them spent in center field.  He’s long been considered one of baseball’s top defensive outfielders and much of his value has been tied to his defense.  He enjoyed a career year in 2011, sporting a .279 AVG, .355 OBP and .491 SLG slash line (good for 5.9 WAR) that was well above his (very steady) career averages of .275, .341 and .430.  in 2012, the Phillies flipped him in a late-season trade to the Dodgers where he never got his offense going. He entered the 2013 free agent market as one of many center fielders trying to lock down a limited number of gigs at that all-important position. 

Boston has started an interesting roster rebuilt that has focused on signing free agents to shorter-term deals through higher-than-expected AAV. Their targets (David Ross, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli and now Victorino) feature extreme platoon splits that may take advantage of Fenway Park and the AL East’s heavy focus on left handed pitching. However, there’s a lot of open questions about these signings, and the same applies to Victorino.

With Jacoby Ellsbury signed for one more year, the Red Sox will ask Victorino to man the expansive grounds of Fenway’s right field.  Right field is not a position typically manned by the fleet of foot or defensively gifted, which are some of Victorino’s redeeming skills.  Further, his offensive value has typically been derived from his speed and extra base hits; these skill sets do not age well (evidenced by his 2012 season) and place further questions on his ability to hold down right field (unless Ellsbury is traded from the club). 2013 will be Victorino’s age 33 season, so there’s little offensive upside and plenty of room for decline in the three years ahead.

Considering the anticipated offensive performance of Victorino in right field and Napoli at first base, the Red Sox have gone after strong complementary players but poorly pegged them in key offensive corner positions (1B and RF). The two hitters, both in their early 30s cannot be expected of further performance improvements and place a greater burden on the Red Sox’s other positions to produce the offense needed to compete in the AL East.