FanDuel MLB Analysis: Opening Day SP Targets

By Matt Johnson on Friday, March 23rd 2018
FanDuel MLB Analysis: Opening Day SP Targets

Friends, the time is here. Major League Baseball is back in its biggest form with the return of opening day. It's that special time of year when you can sit down, relax and watch hours of America's pastime all unfold right in front of you. Home runs, popcorn, peanuts, strikeouts and of course daily fantasy baseball.

Now it's still early and lineups for opening day aren't out yet, so we can't target specific value players based off where they will be hitting in the order. So instead we'll first focus on the starting pitching options and highlight two elite pitchers we love, two value plays we are targeting and two pitchers we'll be looking to target hitters against.

Elite Plays

Chris Sale, BOS @ TB, ($11,200)

While Clayton Kershaw merits plenty of consideration here, the top spot on this list and our preferred premium ace of the day is Sale. Last season, Sale averaged 48.6 FanDuel points per contest and he is coming off a career-best 308 strikeouts last season. He regularly checked off all the boxes with quality starts, low run totals, a high strikeout rate and put himself in the best position to walk out with a win. All of those factors stand out especially for Thursday's opener with a premium matchup to target.

He'll face a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that drained four of its best offensive producers from the 2017 season and replaced them with significant question marks at the same respective positions. Sale is one of the game's best pitchers and should generate a significant amount of strikeouts against Tampa Bay's lineup and keep the runs to a minimum. We could easily be looking at an outing with just one run allowed over seven innings of work and the potential to reach double-digit strikeouts. Tampa Bay is a lineup fantasy owners will want to target pitchers for throughout the season and it will all start on Thursday with Sale's matchup against them.

Luis Severino, NYY @ TOR, ($10,000)

One of baseball's breakout stars last season, Severino proved to be a trustworthy ace for both the New York Yankees and fantasy owners. In 2017, the 24-year-old averaged 40.2 FPG and displayed a phenomenal ability to miss bats. Across 193 1/3 innings pitched, the righty registered a 10.71 K/9 and recorded a 13 percent swinging strike rate. Strikeouts are a huge plus with FanDuel's scoring, but even greater reasoning to target Severino once again this season is New York's potent offense. A high-scoring lineup, especially one as strong as New York's group will provide Severino with plenty of run support and the chance for a six-point bonus for wins.

Severino's matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, a club who collectively struck out in over 20 percent of its place appearances last season, is a favorable target. He'll also be away from Yankee Stadium, which gives him slightly more favorable odds of turning in a quality start and avoiding a bad inning than the unforgiving stadium in New York. With the money saved versus other elite options, fantasy owners will also be able to spend up for a better hitter.

 

Value Plays

Dylan Bundy, BAL vs. MIN, ($7,100)

We saw more flashes from Bundy last season that showed glimpses of real potential and someone we'd want to build lineups around. From Aug. 1 to Sep. 12, Bundy made seven starts and flashed an ability to generate a lot of strikeouts with an 11.35 K/9 and posted an elite 58/11 K/BB ratio with a 2.83 FIP over that span. His matchup at home in Camden Yards isn't ideal and the Minnesota Twins lineup will be solid once again this season, but there is some strikeout upside here and Jake Odorizzi's hanging fastball could cause him some serious problems in homer-friendly Camden Yards. Bundy comes with some risk, but offers the upside for seven-plus strikeouts, a quality start and a win all at an affordable rate.

Julio Teheran, ATL vs. PHI, ($6,300)

This spring training, we've seen pure filth out of the hands of Teheran. Across 20 2/3 innings pitched, the 27-year-old allowed just 16 hits and two earned runs allowed. While the strikeouts haven't been at a premium, he is starting to generate more whiffs as of late and more importantly he is showing much more consistent command than his performance throughout last season. He'll face a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that posted one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball last season and should see that number elevate even more with some of the three-outcome hitters they've added.  This should be a fairly low-scoring contest and can see Teheran walk out with a quality start and a potential win.

 

Target Pitchers

Cole Hamels, TEX vs. HOU, ($6,800)

It seems only a few short years ago Hamels would find himself atop this list as an elite pitcher we'd target as a centerpiece. Now here we are with Hamels a targeted player who we'll focus on stacking against. The 34-year-old finished last season with a career-worst 6.39 K/9 and his swinging strike rate dipped below 10 percent for the first time in his career. Facing the best lineup in baseball, Hamels is in serious danger of being obliterated by Houston's bats. It will be an expensive DFS stack with the likes of George Springer and Jose Altuve, but there will be plenty of value targets as well.

Homer Bailey, CIN vs. WAS, ($5,500)

Bailey, who was once one of baseball's top pitching prospects and spun a no hitter a few years ago, is quickly on his way to having one of the worst contracts in all of baseball. Durability remains a massive concern for Bailey and even when he is on the mound, the 31-year-old hasn't experienced a sub-6.4 ERA in the past two seasons. At home in Great American Ballpark, one of the most homer-friendly parks in baseball, Bailey is in significant trouble against the Washington Nationals lineup. Trea Turner and Bryce Harper will draw a majority of the attention but keep a targeted eye on Michael A. Taylor and Howie Kendrick could be DFS value targets.

Stay In Touch

Scores

Orioles
6
Tigers
5
Astros
0
Mets
5
Cardinals
9
Astros
4
Red Sox
7
Rays
5
Pirates
6
Twins
4
Phillies
7
Nationals
3
Yankees
7
Braves
3
Blue Jays
7
Marlins
8
Reds
11
Padres
10
Giants
3
Rockies
11
Athletics
7
Rangers
3
Dodgers
7
White Sox
6
Rangers
1
Brewers
5
Angels
5
Cubs
4
Diamondbacks
13
Royals
10
Mariners
8
Guardians
7
Orioles
4
Rays
3
Tigers
4
Blue Jays
4
Twins
3
Red Sox
5
Phillies
5
Tigers
3
Braves
3
Pirates
1
Mets
0
Cardinals
6
Marlins
1
Astros
4
Cubs
7
Rockies
14
Royals
8
Mariners
8
Guardians
4
Rangers
11
White Sox
2
Reds
3
Diamondbacks
7
Dodgers
10
Padres
7
Angels
3
Brewers
13
Giants
12
Yankees
7
Nationals
0
1:05 PM ET
Twins
-
Yankees
-
1:05 PM ET
Pirates
-
Orioles
-
1:05 PM ET
Cardinals
-
Mets
-
1:05 PM ET
Rays
-
Blue Jays
-
1:05 PM ET
Tigers
-
Phillies
-
1:05 PM ET
Braves
-
Red Sox
-
1:05 PM ET
Phillies
-
Marlins
-
3:05 PM ET
Reds
-
Angels
-
3:05 PM ET
Cubs
-
Guardians
-
3:05 PM ET
Royals
-
Athletics
-
3:05 PM ET
Giants
-
Dodgers
-
3:05 PM ET
White Sox
-
Rangers
-
3:10 PM ET
Rockies
-
Padres
-
3:10 PM ET
Brewers
-
White Sox
-
6:05 PM ET
Nationals
-
Astros
-
8:10 PM ET
Mariners
-
Diamondbacks
-