No matter what auction strategy you partake in, at some point everyone starts to run out of money before all of their allotted slots are filled. Since single dollar value players are generally taken after you have filled a bulk of your team out. Given that, it is a good place to take some chance on players that carry a lot of risk.
Risk on a player can be incurred due to injuries, limited guaranteed playing time, previous disappointing numbers or players who may obtain a new role such as closer. Below are some options that can be found for a single dollar toward the end of your auction draft and could wind up being worth a lot more.
Rex Brothers - Releif Pitcher, Colorado Rockies
During the offseason the Rockies signed veteran reliever LaTroy Hawkins who most fantasy players thrust right into the closer role due to the absence of previous closer Rafael Betancourt. In a vacuum it would be difficult to argue with that assumption. Subsequently, Brothers value heading into drafts has been severely depressed.
Sadly the season isn’t played out in a vacuum and Hawkins has to be viewed as a big injury risk given that 2013 was his first full season since 2009. It would astonish me if Hawkins were to maintain any piece of the closer role through May given his poultry strikeout rates and overall declined effectiveness.
Even though Brothers is a left handed pitcher, where is usually not your first choice for a closer, it is hard to argue his numbers. Over his first two and a half seasons in the majors he has struck out around 28% of the batters he’s faced while holding them to less than a 10% homerun per fly ball rate. Brothers will only be entering his age 26 season so it’s also possible a decreased walk rate could be achieved given growth in his command.
At the end of the day, if Brothers is only going to cost you one dollar in a draft it’s well worth it as he could easily reach 25+ saves even if Hawkins hangs around the entire season.
Andre Ethier - Outfielder, Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s no secret Ethier is the odd man out in the Dodgers outfield when everyone is healthy, but when are they? Even with Yasiel Puig coming up in early June, Ethier was able to play nearly every day due to the Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford injuries.
In the scenario where all three outfielders are healthy and with the possibility that outfield prospect Joc Peterson could force his way to the majors. Ethier is a candidate to be traded for infield help.
Ethier is still an impact outfielder, who managed to keep up solid production even while being forced to switch to a new position during the season. Due to the possibility that he may be squeezed out of playing time, his fantasy value has been severely depressed making him a great value pick for when an injury or trade inevitably happens.
You could do a lot worse at the end of your draft than Andre Ethier. Given fulltime playing time he’s still a 20 homerun threat and can do that while maintaining a .270+ batting average. Not bad potential for a one dollar flier at the end of a draft. If he’s traded at some point and can get out of cavernous Dodger Stadium, he’s fantasy value would get an even greater boost.
Michael Saunders - Outfielder, Seattle Mariners
Saunders possesses the coveted power and speed combination fantasy owners love, the problem is he just hasn’t been able to put all of his ability together for a full season yet. The great thing for Saunders is that he is entering his magical age 27 season and will now be batting in a lineup with more capable batters.
We’ve seen in the past that players in their age 27 season have been able to put all of their abilities together and strengthen their weaknesses. Last season Saunders had a marked improvement in his walk percentage. Currently Saunders biggest weaknesses are left handed pitching in which he managed a meager .211 batting average in 2013. If he’s able to stabilize his approach versus lefties which he has been able to do in the past, his average will approach .250 and it will also keep him from being a platoon candidate.
It’s not crazy to believe that with a marked improvement against lefties, Saunders could end 2014 with a .250+ average while smashing 20 homeruns and stealing 20 bases. If he still struggles though the Mariners have some other options they could platoon with him, cutting those totals drastically. He’s worth a one dollar flier based on his potential but if the production isn’t their quickly it would be wise to cut bait.
Yasmani Grandal - Catcher, San Diego Padres
Coming off a Performance Enhancing Drug suspension and a torn ACL, Grandal’s draft value has taken a nose dive from where it was in 2013. Grandal is still not back to full health but his on track to be ready for action very early on in April. Since he isn’t 100% healthy yet and had disappointing numbers in his brief (28 games) 2013, Grandal is currently being way undervalued.
If you take out Grandal’s shortened 2013 season he holds a career .304 batting average to go with some decent pop, as he’s hit 14 homeruns in his two full seasons in the minors. Grandal also displays great plate discipline for those playing in on base percentage leagues, as he holds a career .370+ on base percentage throughout his professional career.
If Grandal is capable of playing 90 to 100 games in 2014 he has the potential to hit double digit homeruns while holding a .280+ batting average and a .350+ on base percentage to go along with 50+ runs and runs batted in. These numbers would make Grandal a top 20 if not a top 15 catcher in 2014 especially in on base percentage leagues.
Josh Johnson - Starting Pitcher, San Diego Padres
Johnson’s disappointing 2013 campaign was shut down after he pitched just 81 innings due to a forearm strain. While looking through his numbers it looks like he may have been hurt the entire season as his homerun per fly ball rate was doubled and his batting average against was nearly .300.
The hope is a move back to the National League and to PETCO Park, along with a return to full health will help him get back to the numbers he put up in 2012. If you could get a sub 4.00 earned run average and 8.00+ strikeouts per nine innings over 25 starts, which is well worth a one dollar flier, the rest would be gravy.
Players Currently Going Undrafted In Auctions to Keep an Eye On
Omar Infante - Second Baseman, Kansas City Royals
Even after missing a chunk of time due to injury, Infante was able to smash 10 homeruns in 118 games in 2013. One would think his move from the powerful Tigers lineup of last season to the Royals would hurt his value, but the Royals lineup is nothing to sneeze at. If Infante can stick in the number two hole and hit in front of Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, and Alex Gordon he could easily amass 75+ runs scored to go with a .280+ average and a handful of steals.
Nick Castellanos - Outfielder, Detroit Tigers
Only 22 years old, Castellanos will be the Tigers starting third baseman or 2014. He possess a great hit tool and adequate power potential.
Matthew Davidson - Third Baseman, Chicago White Sox
Davidson was traded in the offseason to the White Sox and should enjoy launching balls out of the bandbox that is U.S. Cellular Field.
Starting Pitchers: Yordano Ventura, Noah Syndergaard, Archie Bradley & Jameson Taillon
These guys may not start the season with their respective major league clubs but each should be up sooner rather than later. When they get the call, you’re going to want to be the guy with them on your team.
*Auction Draft Values obtained from www.FantasyPros.com