With their draft successes and big-name acquisitions, the Washington Nationals were expected to be a team on the rise in 2012. The rise they enjoyed, however, improving from 80-81 overall in 2011 to finishing 2012 with the highest winning percentage of all 30 teams, came as quite a surprise. The young team spent 149 days in first place behind an epic comeback from Tommy John Surgery by Stephen Strasburg, an All-Star campaign from Gio Gonzalez, acquired from the American League Oakland Athletics, and of course, the much-anticipated debut of Bryce Harper, whose spectacular play on the field and maturity off it impressed the team and their fans.
This season has been a tougher road for the Nats, currently at 32-32 on the season and with a six-game deficit on the first-place Atlanta Braves. Without discounting Atlanta, who proved their desire to win the division by signing the Upton brothers and boldly deciding to take a chance on Evan Gattis, the Nationals have not been the same team this year that they were in 2012. Much of this is due to injuries and inconsistencies with some of the names who led the pack in 2012 and coincidentally, may have been early-round draft picks and expected cornerstones of your fantasy rosters.
Even with rookies Jeff Kobernus and Anthony Rendon filling in for the injured Bryce Harper and Danny Espinosa, respectively, it is difficult to pick out any true glaring holes in the Nationals lineup. Still, since May 30, the team has scored more than three runs only twice. It is clear that the offense misses Harper’s power - who has hit 12 home runs and driven in 23 runs through his last appearance May 26 before hitting the disabled list with bursitis in his knee. A recent visit to renowned orthopedist Dr. James Andrews confirmed the injury as such, and with rest, Harper’s fantasy owners should expect his bat back within a reasonable amount of time.
Espinosa, the power-hitting second baseman with a propensity to strike out, has suffered through a tumultuous season with a .158/.193/.272 line. A fractured wrist sent him to the DL on June 3, but lost amidst his recent injury and struggles is the fact that he opted to play out the 2013 season despite being diagnosed with a torn rotator cuff - certainly a possible cause of his offensive woes. Fantasy owners of the belief that this season is a lost cause for Espinosa should keep an eye on Rendon, the former Rice third baseman drafted sixth overall in 2010. While unproven, his upside to hit for both average and power is undeniable.
On the pitching front, Gonzalez has pitched better, especially during the worst of the Nats’ struggles, than his 3-3 record would indicate. In his past two starts, he has gone seven and six innings, striking out seven batters on each occasion and limiting the opposition to two earned runs or less. Of his 13 starts this season, eight of them have been Quality Starts - six innings pitched or greater while allowing three or fewer earned runs. Gonzalez is still a fantasy ace, and his high strikeout totals and ability to limit baserunners have been as evident this season as they were last.
Similarly, Strasburg’s 3-5 record can be explained by both lack of run support and early-season struggles. He is expected to return from his strained lat muscle on June 16, and like Gonzalez, is a strikeout machine who will earn wins when the offense backs him. While the fantasy numbers are lagging a bit for the number one and two starters, it is Jordan Zimmermann who has been the big winner for the Nationals. At an impressive 9-3 on the season, the decrease in his strikeout rate is actually a testament to the adjustments he’s made to induce more ground balls and pitch deeper into games. He has pitched into the sixth inning - and often beyond it - in 12 of his 13 starts, and Zimmermann owners should revel in the fact that they have a matured young fireballer leading their staff.
The Nationals are likely to return to form when their lineup begins to resemble the same one they ran out for much of 2012. While their team record thus far is lackluster, many of the players who contributed to their first-place finish last season should still give fantasy owners reason to believe in them. With Adam LaRoche, Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond continuing to post solid numbers, Harper’s return from injury and the development of Rendon, the Nationals lineup will recover, which in turn will boost the fantasy numbers of the Nationals aces. Whether this year’s team finish with the highest winning percentage in baseball, or even beat out the surging Braves for first in the National League East remains to be seen, but giving up on the stars that carried the team there last year would be unwise.