While baseball season is months away, we're only a few weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training and the excitement for baseball season really kicking off. It means that the early work for fantasy baseball drafts starts to kick off, but people get busy and getting into the research takes time, so we do it for you! In this series, we'll look at potential sleepers and bounceback candidates amongst pitchers. Here's our look at four hitters who could make for nice sleepers come draft time.
So let's take a look at four pitchers whose numbers indicate a bounceback is coming and could lead to some draft day bargains in your fantasy leagues.
Jon Gray, Starting Pitcher, Colorado Rockies
Pitchers who make half their starts in Coors Field are typically viewed very unfavorably. It's nothing personal against the pitcher, it's just that pitchers ERAs seem to die at Coors Field, with baseballs just lofting further through the air and over the fences or into the wide open gaps. But I'm optimistic about Gray, as he showed he can do enough at Coors Field and shine on the road.
Gray went through stretches last year where for months, you'd see an ace then for a few weeks you'd feel like he was no more than a number four pitcher in a team's rotation. When you watched Gray for his 13-week stretch between May 26 - August 2, you witnessed brilliance. Over that span, Gray had a sparkiling 2.61 ERA with an 8.82 K/9 and just a 1.2 HR/9 rate.
Of course, it's also important to note over that stretch there was plenty of luck. Gray's .235 BABIP allowed to opponents would have been one of the lowest in the league and his 4.15 FIP shows the ERA was hard to sustain.
Oddly enough, he then ran into a stretch in his final 10 starts of the season where the FIP was on his side but his ERA was an eye sore. Gray did start missing significantly more bats with a 10.97 K/9, his HR/9 dropped to 0.84 and that very FIP we speak of now sat at a very respectable 3.33. But his ERA skyrocketed to 6.41 and the BABIP shot up over 100 points to .369.
The truth about where the 25-year-old lies is somewhere in between. He's certainly not going to be a sub-three ERA pitcher as long as half his starts are coming at Coors Field, but he's far better five or six-plus ERA he had towards the end of the season. Gray finished last season with 185 strikeouts across 168 innings and with an increased workload, Gray can easily surpass 200 strikeouts next season.
A 25-year-old pitcher with 200-plus strikeout upside who can have a 4.2-3.8 ERA and give you some great starts on the road, with some quality starts mixed in at home, is absolutely worth having in fantasy.
Robbie Ray, Starting Pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks
xFIP: 3.45
FIP: 3.76
ERA: 4.9
K/9: 11.25
Ray is going to be one of the more popular sleeper picks this season. Face it, we love strikeouts. The ability to generate swings and misses is pure bliss to watch. Last season, we saw Ray run into some bad luck that resulted in an ERA near five.
The 25-year-old increased his groundball rate to 45.7 percent last season, while his flyball percentage dropped to 32.6 percent. It was steady improvement for the young lefty and a great push to cut down on his home runs surrendered.
But that didn't happen, in fact things got much worse. A pitcher who allowed just nine home runs and a 0.63 HR/9 across 127 2/3 innings in 2015, surrendered 24 home runs and a 1.24 HR/9 across 174 1/3 innings.
As a result, Ray's ERA jumped from 3.52 in 2015 to 4.90 in 2016. It was a lterrible year for Ray's luck with flyballs as nearly 16 percent of the fly balls left the yard. That rare was more than double his HR/FB percentage last season. Now being in Chase Field, a park that's typically friendly to hitters, that HR/FB rate is udnerstandably more along the lines of 9-12 HR/9, 15.5 was the outlier last season.
That wasn't the only area where Ray has encountered some poor luck. As a groundball pitchers, a lower BAIP is crucial to having some success and limiting base runners.
Once again the numbers weren't on Ray's side as he his .352 BABIP to opponents was the highest amongst qualified starting pitchers last season. The defense behind him wasn't especially sharp and balls found the right gaps.
We come full circle to what makes Ray such a compelling fantasy talent. He misses bats at a near-elite level, generating swings and misses on a consistent basis. Having a young lefty who can do that is even more valuable. With better luck on his side and some numbers returning closer to norms. Ray's ERA can reasonably drop into the 3.6-3.9 range with 200-plus strikeouts.
Michael Pineda, Starting Pitcher, New York Yankees
BABIP: .339
HR/FB: 17 percent
K/9: 10.61
FIP: 3.80
ERA: 4.82
Pineda is an enigma. We saw brilliance immediately upon his arrival in the major leagues. Across 171 innings, the rookie had a 3.42 FIP, struck out 173 batters and showed the promise of a future ace. Then Pineda was traded and over the next three seasons, he barely cracked 100 total innings due to various arm injuries. The narrative was set, Pineda was a bust and the chances he'd never pitch again in the majors was considered.
But slowly he made his way back and in 2015 he turned in a quality season under the circumstances with a 4.37 ERA, 8.74 K/9 and a strong 3.34 FIP. After throwing 160 innings, Pineda was able to remain healthy and have a healthy offseason so he could head into the new season without any issues and just focus on improving.
There was certainly some improvement. The swing-and-miss stuff from earlier in Pineda's career was as strong as ever with a 10.61 K/9 and he surpassed 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career.
You love the K/9, but there were sveral factors that led to a jump in his ERA to 4.82 last season. First off, pitching in Yankee Stadium is certainly not ideal for Pineda. His flyball percentage sits at 32 percent and in New York with the short porches, that translated into nearly one out of every five flyballs leaving the yard.
Pineda's 3.80 FIP indicated more of a pitcher whose defense and ballpark weren't especially helpful for preventing runs, especially when you consider he had a .339 BABIP. That number is consistent with his .332 BABIP in 2015, but up until 2015 his career BABIP was below .280.
The stretches of brilliance are an ace who can put up 250 strikeouts in a season, but they also come with stretches of a pitcher who seems more fit for the minor leagues due to a complete lack of command. Pineda carries the biggest risk on this list but with it, he also carries great upside.
Marcus Stroman, Starting Pitcher, Toronto Blue Jays
4/3 - 7/15: 120 2/3 IP, 88/34 K/BB, 1.04 HR/9, 5.15 ERA, 4.12 FIP
7/20 - 9/29: 83 1/3 IP, 78/20 K/BB, 0.76 HR/9, 3.24 ERA, 3.12 FIP
After a 2014 rookie season where he had a 111/28 K/BB ratio, a 3.65 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. It was a very strong debut for the rookie hurler and the hype train was fully loaded heading into the 2015 season.
Then early bad luck struck. Early in spring training, Stroman tore his ACL and missed most of the season. He was able to return late in the year and made four starts. Across 27 innings, Stroman only allowed five runs and 20 hits. It was another step towards the hope that surrounded Stroman and a belief that if healthy in 2016, he could put up some great numbers and be an impact fantasy starter.
His first start out of the gate went well, very well in fact. Stroman went eight innings in the Blue Jays' season opener and allowed just three runs. But then things went downhill quickly. Simply put, Stroman looked like a back-end starter with an ERA above five. In situations like that it's often strikeouts that are the only saving mark to keep a pitcher even remotely fantasy relevant, but Stroman didn't have that either with a 6.44 K/9.
But in the second half, we saw the old Stroman. He cut his ERA down from 5.15 to 3.24 and his 3.12 FIP backed up that the ERA held legitimacy. It was the numbers you hoped for and on their one, you could have easily taken that and a 6.44 K/9, but Stroman raised the bar in that category as well with an 8.42 K/9.
One way he was able to cut down the ERA, in addition to generating more strikeouts, was the reduce long balls Stroman's HR/9 rate dropped from 1.04 to .76, his HR/FB dropped from 18 percent to 14 percent.
The second half of the season wasn't an outlier. Stroman has shown he can consistently keep the runs down and help the Blue Jays stay competitive in games. He certainly may not have the 180-plus strikeout stuff, but you can count on him for runs, a reliable ERA and he can throw in some strikeouts as an added bonus.