On draft day, these starting pitchers were cornerstones on your - or your opponents' - pitching staffs. 2013, however, been unkind to some of the game's most decorated number ones. While plugging these pitchers in has likely had grave repercussions on your team's statistics, the question lingering on fantasy owners' minds is whether or not their struggles will stick around in the stretch run, or even spill over into 2014. The fates of these five underachieving aces depend on many factors.
Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
Two-time All Star and Cy Young contender Lester’s career has taken a severe dip that baseball analysts are equally confused by and worried about. In 2012, the lefty was rocked to the tune of a 9-14 record and a 4.82 ERA. This season, despite having his typical velocity and stamina, has been more of the same. He has allowed 149 hits in 143.1 innings for the Red Sox, who had to scrutinize Lester’s viability as a playoff ace when they traded away Jose Iglesias to acquire Jake Peavy. There is nothing physically wrong with the 29-year-old, and luck (.312 BABIP in 2013) can only account for so much. For Lester, now in his second down year in a row, there is no time but the present to work with manager and former pitching coach John Farrell to get himself straight.
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
Verlander may have been the last pitcher any fantasy owner could have predicted would fall off quite as hard as he has in 2013. While his overall numbers - 11-8 record, 3.88 ERA and 138 strikeouts in 143.2 innings - are solid among American League starters, he been undeniably un-Verlander this season. His fastball velocity is down a tick, though an average velocity of 93.7 (as compared with 94.7 MPH in 2012) is hardly to blame. Verlander is surrendering walks at a 3.51 BB per nine innings rate, something he hasn’t done since an “off” season in 2008. A .328 BABIP, a full 92 points higher than in his Cy Young 2011 campaign, can certainly account for some of the extra base hits he’s surrendered, but all 147 of the hits he’s allowed can’t be chalked up to bad fortune.
It doesn’t appear that Verlander is pitching through injury, which is a positive sign for fantasy owners searching for an explanation for his 2013 numbers. Assuming the Tigers make the playoffs in October, fantasy owners should pay close attention to Verlander’s performance on the greatest stage, as it may be a window into how he’ll rebound in 2014.
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
How much longer will fantasy owners - and Giants management - allow Lincecum to continue to take the mound every fifth day? A 13-strikeout no-hitter on July 13 that was followed up by 3.2 hellish innings against the Reds in which he allowed eight runs and three homers on July 22 are a microcosm of The Franchise’s frankly freaky season. Overall, he has a 5-11 record and a 4.43 ERA for the struggling Giants, still striking out over a batter per innings but struggling with location and his diminished repertoire. Lincecum’s velocity has been down and his walks have been up since the season opened in 2012, and neither have returned to par for the slight 29-year-old. It is logical thinking for fantasy owners to doubt that the two-time Cy Young Award winner will ever achieve the successes of his early career again. His mid-90s fastball, as well as his dominance over opposing hitters, returned out of the bullpen during the Giants postseason run last year, and perhaps we will see Lincecum in a new role sooner than later.
Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
Fans’ disappointment in Lincecum has been overshadowed, perhaps, by their confusion with Matt Cain’s 2013, one year removed from his date with perfection. Unlike Lincecum, however, Cain’s struggles cannot be pinned on velocity or control - at least directly. The possibility that the 28-year-old is tipping his pitches has been brought up, but it is very difficult to prove the theory with his fantasy statistics. Always a pronounced fly ball pitcher, he has allowed home runs at a higher rate this season than ever before in his career. 7-6 on the season with a 4.57 ERA that is nearly a run and a half above his career average, Cain’s strikeout and walk rates have stayed on par, which is reason for optimism that his down year is not a sign of lasting decline. The natural reaction would be to give up on Cain and write 2013 off as a lost season, but fantasy owners should consider the fact that he is working with the same repertoire that made him a Cy Young Award contender last season before scrapping the Giants ace.
CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
With 200 wins at age 32, Sabathia’s success to date is testament to the value of a starter who throws a ton of innings. A power pitcher who always had the ability to hit the high 90s with his fastball, the lefty had a knack for reserving his high heater for big situations in the late innings. This season, the pitch has deserted him - and his 168 hits and 24 home runs allowed in 152.2 innings are cold, hard proof. With both his walk and strikeout rates not far off his career averages, it is the longball that has been Sabathia’s demise. 14.9 percent of all fly balls hit off the giant starter have left the yard, and with his ground ball rate down slightly, there are even more opportunities for a big fly. His fastball velocity is down this season, but if there is any pitcher who can overcome speed with stamina, it’s Sabathia. His performance in 2013 means that he needs to make adjustments to regain his reputation as both an innings-eater and an ace.