While it's a limited sample size, the World Baseball Classic flashed a side of Gregory Polanco that the Pittsburgh Pirates and fantasy owners have dreamed of. In a tournament that featured MVPs and perennial All Stars, Polanco shined the brightest. In just 19 at bats, Polanco collected 11 hits and put his power and speed on display numerous times.
Certainly you can't skyrocket a player up fantasy rankings off of a brief appearance in the World Baseball Classic, but there's still plenty of reason for optimism. Because when you combine many of the things Polanco did in 2016 with his performance in the WBC, the fantasy potential is enticing.
But before we look at the high potential we so badly crave, let's first take a look at what happened in his 2016 season
2016 Recap
Polanco entered the 2016 season healthy and he tore the cover off the baseball to kick off the season. Across his first two months, he put up some of the best numbers across the majors. His .311/.391/.553 in 221 plate appearances demonstrated his all-around ability with the bat and an example of his power-contact combo. Polanco paired it with an outstanding .391 wOBA, 148 wRC+, eight home runs and seven stolen bases.
You couldn't paint a more perfect start for Polanco, the numbers were all on his side. Over that two-month span, Polanco generated excellent contact off the bat with a 35.7 percent hard-hit percentage, a 15.4 percent HR/FB rate, 26.1 percent line drive rate and he walked in 12 percent of his at bats. Patience at the plate, timing, hard contact and generating more velocity off the bat were all there.
But the numbers started to dip as the calendar turned to June. From June 4 to the end of July, Polanco's triple-slash line dropped to .257/.321/.446, with a .329 wOBA and 106 wRC+. A far drop off from the numbers he put up the two months prior, Polanco resembled a close to average player. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) sunk from .352 to .295, his walk rate dropped to 9.1 percent, while his infield fly ball percentage jumped.
Polanco's greatest issue might have just been his timing at the plate with his strikeout rate jumping from 18 percent to 23 percent and the drop in walks. His fly ball rate and hard-hit rate remained close to the prior months, so he got the ball in the air, they just didn't seem to be carrying as much.
It's also worth noting that Polanco missed the first few games in April with left shoulder soreness, something that could have lingered and impacted the amount of power he generated. He didn't miss any significant time over the rest of the season, but his numbers after July were ugly. A .211/.251/.400 slash line with a 71 wRC+ just crushed his play in the second half of the season and pushed him to the back of the lineup. But even while all this happened and he struck out in more than 21 percent of his plate appearances, his 22.1 percent line drive rate and 36.4 percent hard-hit rate showed the abilities he still had.
Constant platelet rich plasma injections into his knee and shoulder likely did him in and altered his results at the plate, he's far too good of a player when healthy to put up subpar numbers. Polanco carries major injury risk into the season, but the World Baseball Classic showed just what he can be capable of when healthy and producing. Because even when there is plenty of inconsistency and injuries, he still put up a near 20-20 line with 80-plus runs scored and 80-plus RBIs
2017 Outlook
Health will obviously be a key for Polanco in 2017. Further shoulder or knee soreness could lead to trips to the disabled list now that it has been moved from 15 to 10 days. Shoulder and/or knee soreness could also further to contribute to issues with power or on the base paths, both of which are critical to Polanco's fantasy appeal.
That said, fantasy owners shouldn't shy away from Polanco. While he isn't on the elite scale of speed by any means, his line-drive rates, above average speed and ability to make hard contact point towards a BABIP that should be closer to the .350-range he posted in the first two months of the season, rather than the sub-.295 BABIP over the remainder of the season.
Pittsburgh's lineup isn't one of the best in the National League, but Pittsburgh's trio of outfielders with Polanco, Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen should keep the runs coming fairly often and not allow opposing pitchers to pitch around any of them. Any concerns about Polanco hitting at the bottom of the lineup should be put away, he represents one of Pittsburgh's best bats and biggest threats on the bases.
Polanco demonstrated last year his approach and patience at the plate is improving and he could finish with a walk rate above 10 percent this season. The next step for him with an improved, quicker swing could be to generate more loft and raise the launch angle for baseballs off the bat, giving him slightly more air under the ball and potentially bumping up the home run total.
What mill make him valuable is the home run-speed combo and achieving the important 20-homer, 20-steal mark which would cement him as a fantasy stud. If he can accomplish that, which he has the opportunity to given his batted ball rates, he can be a premium fantasy outfielder who climbs up the ranks and heads into the future as a top-50 fantasy player. Injury risk has to be accounted for, but a healthy Polanco can be a difference maker in fantasy and someone owners should absolutely land if given the opportunity.
2017 Projection: .263/.338/.463, 23 HRs, 24 SBs, 84 runs, 89 RBIs
ADP Analysis
Polanco is being viewed as a top-60 player in fantasy by the market based on ESPN's live average draft position. It might sound a little off but when you examine the names going around the same range, Matt Carpenter, Ian Kinsler, Aroldis Chapman and Adrian Beltre, it makes sense.
In fact, Polanco could easily prove to be worth more than those going around him. Chapman and Kenley Jansen, going a few spots ahead, represent the early closers coming off the board and people arguably paying too early for saves. Kinsler put up great numbers last year and great production at second base in fantasy is great, but he makes for a serious regression candidate after he hit 28 home runs last season as a 34-year-old.
A case could be made to take Polanco, young and growing into his potential, over the likes of Beltre and Andrew McCutchen. We already saw McCutchen turn in a down year last year and the hit in stolen bases struck a blow with only six successful steals. Meanwhile, Beltre will turn 38 in April and the power could be in for a drop from the 30s to the 20s, with it comes a significant fantasy hit.
Polanco certainly carries risk with him but McCutchen, Kinsler and Beltre all raise serious red flags with their age and declining abilities. If I'm going to take the risk already, give me the potential 20-20 player whose skill set is on the rise.