Don't be fooled by the .330 batting average, seven homers, sixteen RBI and three steals. We've seen this show before.
Sure, Atlanta Braves outfielder Justin Upton is a fairly well-known name in the baseball world and there is no doubt that he is a very good all-around player, but a regression to the mean seems inevitable.
Take last year for example. Upton went on an absolute tear in April but finished the season on an extremely cold note as his batting average dropped all the way to .263 by the end of the year. Upton also homered twelve times in April 2013 and only fifteen more times the remainder of the season.
In fact, Upton only hit .300 once in his career - all the way back in 2009 - and surpassed the 30-home run plateau just once, in 2011.
Something else to take into consideration is the rest of the Braves' lineup. Chris Johnson is not hitting as well as last season. Justin's brother B.J. Upton will certainly see a regression. Brian McCann is no longer a Brave.
This all adds up to less support for Justin in the lineup: something that could certainly hurt his production. He has seen it already: for a guy hitting .330 with seven home runs, isn't sixteen a pretty low number for RBI? Especially hitting in the heart of Atlanta's order?
There are all sorts of red flags surrounding Upton, and even though he will still end up putting up solid numbers in all areas offensively, you can acquire someone that will help you out even more by dealing Upton right now.
Chances are, someone in your league will see Upton's numbers and recognize his name and immediately be willing to shell out some Grade-A talent. If you own Upton, take advantage of that person now before Upton's numbers start going south.