Opening day is right around the corner and fantasy drafts are winding down all across the country. You have undoubtedly poured over statistics and crunched the numbers every which way to determine your player wish list.
It is a common occurrence in fantasy pools to see a team loaded with offensive talent and big names; however, the pitching gets completely neglected. I know the old adage (thanks to Nike) that chicks (and fantasy general managers) dig the long ball but I’m here to tell you that pitching wins your fantasy pool.
Solid pitching, not offense is the mark of a successful fantasy squad. Now there is only one Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg available in every pool so one must dig deeper to find some hidden pitching gems that can add tremendous value to your squad while not costing high-round picks to acquire.
eDraft is continuing its analysis of fantasy sleepers as we now move on to the men on the mound. What will follow is a division by division breakdown of sleepers and undervalued arms that could just propel your fantasy squad to the top or at least garner you some serious props for your baseball insight.
We have finished our sleeper analysis of the American League and now we start in on the National League. First up is the NL Central analysis of those sleeper arms that will help your fantasy squad. To check out the AL Sleeper picks click here. Stay tuned to eDraft for fantasy pitchers from throughout the National League.
Gerrit Cole – Starting Pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates top-rated prospect has been sent down to Triple-A Indianapolis where he will open the season. The much-anticipated call-up for Cole will likely come in the summer as the Pirates will first want to evaluate some Triple-A starts. There is no doubt that this 22-year-old can flat out pitch and he will have an impactful career in the majors; however, for now that road is going to be a slow one. It is clear that Cole believes that he should be on the opening day roster for the Pirates and he had no problem in voicing that opinion when he was informed of his demotion.
The next few months will be telling as to how Cole handles the disappointment. The demotion has a lot less to do with performance than it does with money. Here we see another top-prospect who is major-league ready be optioned to Triple-A by the parent club in order to postpone his free agency and delay Cole’s salary arbitration years. Still a pitcher who breaks camp at Triple-A cannot be worthy of anything more than a late-round pick; however, if you have the roster spot available there aren’t many more players more deserving of a draft and stash spot than Cole.
John Axford – Relief Pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers
If you are looking for fantasy value in a relief pitcher, than look no further than the Brewers closer John Axford. Coming off a season in which he posted 35 saves, took 8 losses, had 39 walks issued in 69 innings worked and posted an ERA of 4.67; it is clear that he had his struggles. The control issues that plagued him last season seem to have been rectified as he looked sharp pitching for Team Canada in the World baseball Classic. Despite the high walk totals from last year, Axford still struck out 93 over the same 69 innings. This season the ERA and WHIP should come down and the loss total will be less. There is no reason to think that another 35-plus save season isn’t achievable and coupled with strong strikeout numbers, fewer walks and fewer runs allowed all of a sudden Axford gives great fantasy value on a bounce-back type season.
Marco Estrada – Starting Pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers
Here is another Brewers’ pitcher who represents great fantasy value on a bounce-back year. Last season he started 29 games for the Brewers and he took home only 5 wins out of those starts. What was impressive and gives reason for optimism heading into this season was the low ERA of 3.64 over those games, the low 1.14 WHIP and the fact that he averaged more than a strikeout per inning throughout the season. To start the season Estrada was the Brewers likely number two man in the rotation, with the recent addition of Kyle Lohse it remains to be seen if he will hold onto that spot or slide down to number three; either way it shouldn’t affect his value too greatly. A very solid fantasy pickup and I might even consider moving up the board to grab him before someone else sees the value too.
Lance Lynn - Starting Pitcher, St. Louis Cardinals
An 18 game winner last season for the Cardinals, Lynn has undergone a physical transformation this off-season as he shed about 35 pounds off his hulking frame. This has seemingly affected his delivery and adversely affected his pitching thus far. Spring training has not been kind to Lynn who has struggled throughout. He remains the Cardinals number three starter in the rotation so there is hope that he regains his control and does so quickly. Many fantasy draft boards have Lynn slipping down to the later-rounds and this is fine by me as I’m happy to grab him there instead of having to use a mid-round pick. Lynn still projects out with 12-plus win season and should post 150-plus strikeouts on the year.
Fyuji Fujikawa – Relief Pitcher, Chicago Cubs
The 32-year old Japanese import has already made quite an impression on the Cubs organization as he has demonstrated command of his pitches and the ability to locate them to both sides of the plate. While he projects as the team’s set-up man, the potential for him to become the everyday closer is there. Current closer Carlos Marmol has a tenuous grasp at best on the role currently and any early-season stumbles could cost him the spot for good.
The Cubbies spent a considerable amount of money for Fujikawa and they will be looking to extract as much as they can for their buck. The numbers he posted while in Japan are downright sick as he left with a career ERA of 1.36, a 0.85 WHIP and averaged 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings. If your fantasy league tracks holds then I would value Fujikawa as a middle to late-round pick up. If it is just saves that your league tracks then look at grabbing him near the end of the draft and stash him until he sees regular action as the Cubs’ closer.