When many fantasy managers look at the second round of their drafts, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg are sure to be options for a No. 1 or No. 2 starting pitcher. Both pitchers are going very close to each other in most drafts. In ESPN mock drafts, Kershaw is going 13th overall, which in a standard league would be the first pick of the second round. Strasburg is only going five spots behind him at 18th overall. In Yahoo! drafts, Strasburg is going just a little higher than Kershaw, but both are going around the 13th pick. Assuming you don’t get Justin Verlander, both Kershaw and Strasburg are the best options at starting pitcher heading into this season. But heading into the second round, which one is the better option? Let’s find out.
Strasburg
Possibly the most talented pitcher in the majors, Strasburg is coming off of a shortened season, when he was shut down early while he was recovering from Tommy John surgery he had to the prior season. However, it looks like the Washington Nationals won’t be holding him back this season. This is great news for fantasy owners, as he was shut down just before the fantasy playoffs last year. If he stays healthy, Strasburg has the potential to win 20 or more games, especially with the lineup and bullpen behind him in Washington. Prior to being shut down, Strasburg was 15-6 with a 3.16 ERA. His biggest strength is his ability to fool opposing hitters, as he has 313 strikeouts in his first three years in the majors, only issuing 67 walks in that time. These are certainly impressive numbers, but the innings count has to be a concern for any fantasy owner. Even in the shortened season, he threw for just over 159 innings. That was the most of his entire career, as he never threw more than 109 innings in college, and didn’t get close to that mark in his first two years in the majors. There’s no question that Washington’s ace has the talent, but as he gets later into the year, fantasy owners should keep a very close eye on how he reacts to a larger innings count.
Kershaw
Unlike Strasburg, Kershaw undoubtedly has the track record to prove that he can go late into the season, and has the numbers to prove he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. Kershaw followed up his 2011 Cy Young-winning campaign with an equally impressive season in 2012, his fifth with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 25-year-old averages over 188 innings per year, and pitched 227.2 innings last year. While he lacked a high volume of wins (he only finished with 14), his other stats were far more impressive. Kershaw finished the year with a 2.53 ERA, and gave up only a little less than seven hits per nine innings. He also struck out 229 batters, and only gave up 16 homers all year to opposing teams. The pressure will somewhat relax on Kershaw this year, as the Dodgers signed free agent Zack Greinke. The Dodgers also improved their lineup in the second half of 2012; adding Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez. With those additions, the pressure should be off Kershaw to be as dominant, and he’ll have a better supporting cast that will bump his wins up.
The verdict
While both Kershaw and Strasburg are two of the best in the league, Kershaw is the better option for fantasy owners if given a choice between the two on draft day. Strasburg has launched up mock-draft boards based upon name power alone. He had a great 2012 before being shut down, but there are too many question marks around him. It’s too much of a risk to take Strasburg when owners don’t know what he’ll do when given an innings count similar to Kershaw’s. Kershaw’s ERA has never been higher than 2.9 since his rookie year, and he is the much-safer pick in the second round. If this was to rebuild a professional team, Strasburg might be the better option. But for this fantasy season, there is no reason why Strasburg should go ahead of Kershaw. There’s nothing wrong with taking Strasburg toward the end of the second round, but pick up Kershaw as soon as Verlander leaves the board, as he is sure to be one of the top three candidates for the Cy Young again this year.