The American League East has been long-considered baseball’s premier division, a five-team battle featuring baseball’s largest baseball rivalry (New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox), plucky-and-savvy Tampa Bay Rays, ever-developing Toronto Blue Jays, and cellar-dwelling Baltimore Orioles.
2012 featured both new and old; themes of the past continued, with the Yankees winning the division, the Rays overachieving with premier pitching and despite a small payroll, and the Blue Jays disappointing. It featured new themes, with the Red Sox reaching an ebb in the division’s competitive balance (finishing with 90+ losses, first time since 1965), and the Orioles surprising with a Wild Card entry.
2013 will see some of these trends continue, but new are sure to emerge. The Blue Jays have gone all-in, trading future for present while adding $40M+ payroll. The Red Sox have added $60M+ payroll but have open questions about their star power and pitching depth. The Orioles face open questions about sustained performance that was built largely on the backs of their outstanding records in one-run games. The Yankees have gotten older and have not added significant pieces. However, one trend sure to continue is that the AL East features the game’s premier fantasy talents, both batters and pitchers. Today we’ll review and rank the top AL East fantasy pitchers.
1. David Price, Starting Pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays
The reiging AL CY Young winner, Price has proven himself to be durable (643 INN in past three seasons) and outstanding (3.16 career ERA). He’s just 27 years old and seems to get better every year. He’s a good bet to sustain his 2012 performance, so bank on 17-20 W, 180 SO, 2.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP .Behind Justin Verlander, he’s the AL’s #2 pitcher for 2013.
2. R.A. Dickey, Starting Pitcher, Toronto Blue Jays
The reigning NL CY Young winner moves over to the American League courtesy of a trade to the Toronto Blue Jays. Dickey’s, 38, exceeded strong 2010 and 2011 campaigns by putting together a league-best 20-6 record, with a 2.76 ERA and 4.6 WAR in 2012 with the lowly New York Mets. While he moves to a hitter friendly league and ballpark, some of that negative effect is mitigated by his move into a domed stadium, which should improve late movement on his power knuckleball pitch. Some may be concerned that his 2012 numbers were a fluke, but his metrics do not point to any kind of an abberation – he held a remarkably consistent opponent BABIP, while he improved his SO/9 and BB/9 in the past three seasons. One a good team, he can repreat his 20 W 3.00 ERA and 200 SO.
3. CC Sabathia, Starting Pitcher, New York Yankees
Sabathia has been one of baseball’s elite starting pitchers for a decade. He’s pitched over 2,500+ MLB innings and may be showing some wear. In October, Sabathia underwent surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. The bigh left-hander has not missed significant time in his career, so he can still be reliably counted on for 17-20 W, 180 SO and a 3.00-3.50 ERA. Draft with caution, there is growing concern that a trip to Dr. James Andrews is approaching.
4. Matt Moore, Starting Pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays
A surprise entry at number four, as 2012 was Moore’s first full MLB season and he finished with just a 3.81 ERA and 11 W. However, Moore’s 2012 was a story of two halfs, as his second half saw vast improvements. In 2012 second half, Moore lowered his ERA to 3.01 and his wOBA from .330 to .285. He walked a batter less per nine innings, while cutting his HR% in half. Moore’s an outstanding stealth buy for rounds 4-6. Expect him to challenge Price as the Rays new ace.
5. Hiroki Kuroda, Starting Pitcher, New York Yankees
At 38, Kuroda is well established and there’s little chance of upside to his 2013 performance. However, he’s a predicatble number two starter, consistently producing 13-17 W, 6.5-7.5 K/9 and a low-3.00 ERA. Aging, reliable vets tend to draft lower than their performance indicates, so he’s a safe bet to go in rounds 6-9. Get him early and you’ll save yourself the disappointment of other, similarly drafted pitchers.
6. Brandon Morrow, Starting Pitcher, Toronto Blue Jays
As the contrast to Kuroda, Morrow is the high-upside, oft-injured pitcher that can vault your pitching performance to first, or last. In 2012, Morrow finally put together his wicked fastball/slider combination to lower his ERA, WHIP and BBs. He broke everyone’s heart by hitting the disabled list again, but with a non-pitching injury. If Morrow can repeat his 2012 performance and remain healthy, he’ll easily rank in the top 10 MLB pitchers. I’ll take the middle ground and say he’s good for 13 W, 180 SO, 3.20 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
7. Fernando Rodney, Relief Pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays
Fernando Rodney had a dream 2012 season, but it was full of outliers (89% strand rate) indicating he’s ripe for some 2013 regression. Nonetheless, he’s a leading closer and will easily eclipse the 30 SV, 60 SO territory thanks to Maddon’s perfect bullpen deployments.
8. Mariano Rivera, Relief Pitcher, New York Yankees
Rivera returns in 2013 after an ACL injury derailed his 2012 season. He’ll be 43 years old, but there’s no reason to think he’ll be anything short of the game’s best closer. He averaged 41 saves and 8.0 SO/9 between 2008 and 2011, so there’s no reason to believe he can’t return as a premier closer.
9. Jon Lester, Starting Pitcher, Boston Red Sox
Lester was the victim ofbad luck in 2012: his BABIP was up to .313 (from .286 in 2011), even while his GB% remained within 1% of his career. There’s no reason to believe he can’t return to deliver 15 W, a 3.20 ERA, 160 SO and a 1.25 WHIP.
10. Jim Johnson, Relief Pitcher, Baltimore Orioles
Buck Showalter’s optimum bullpen useage will ensure Johnson continues to get loads of saves. In his first year as a closer (2012), he led the majors with 51 saves. Bank on him for 35-45 saves. Only drawback with Johnson is his low SO/9 rate; as a closer he won’t pitch many innings, so the only real value you’ll get from him is in the SV department.