The National League East is an intriguing division particularly when it comes to dissecting the pitching talent. There are many pundits who are predicting the Washington Nationals to represent the NL come October; however, those predictions are based firmly on the right arm of Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg.
Aside from Strasburg, this division is packed with big-name hurlers who are looking to rebound from mediocre seasons in 2012. The Philadelphia Phillies could find themselves leading the charge in the division if their trio of stars can find their form. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels all represent big dollars but will they produce up to their contract value?
The other team looking to challenge for a Division title is the Atlanta Braves, who this off-season made their upgrades on the offensive side. The Braves pitching will once again lean on Tim Hudson to stay healthy and chew up innings while they are hoping that Kris Medlan’s 10-1 record last season was only a glimpse into his potential.
Pitching can win titles and for the teams in the NL East they will be relying on their pitching staff’s to carry them deep into the postseason. Last season saw the Nationals have the top ranked staff in the NL while the Braves were ranked fourth overall and the Phillies, despite their struggles, weren’t far behind.
Here is eDraft’s ranking for the top ten fantasy pitchers from the NL East. The pitching talent in this division is probably the deepest in MLB. From a fantasy perspective most of these guys could be interchangeable and as the season progresses one might just surprise and become the best in class. As you can see the list is dominated by three teams, as the NY Mets and Miami Marlins traded away their best pitching talent during the off-season.
1- Stephen Strasburg – Washington Nationals
The ace of the Washington Nationals staff has got baseball fans and fantasy GM’s excited as we all wait to see what kind of numbers a healthy and unshackled Strasburg can put up in a complete season. There is nothing holding this 24 year old back from joining the ranks of baseball’s fantasy elite. Strasburg could potentially take the pitchers triple crown and walk away with the CY Young come year end. A season of 20 wins, over 230 strikeouts and an ERA right around 2.35 is very attainable. As far as drafting goes; someone between Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Strasburg will be the first pitcher off the board. As soon as one guy goes, start positioning to draft whoever is left as these three are significantly better than everyone else.
2- Rafael Soriano – Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals made a significant bullpen upgrade when they acquired Soriano to fill the closers role. With Soriano the Nats bullpen is airtight as Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard are going to occupy the set-up roles and fill in should there be an injury. Many people will view Soriano as maybe not even being the best reliever in the division; however, if the Nationals improve on their 98 win total from last season then there will be a heck of a lot of save opportunities and Soriano will benefit hugely from those chances. Despite a history of arm injuries, Soriano still saved 42 games last season for the NY Yankees. If he can just stay healthy throughout the season I think his fantasy value will just edge out that of Craig Kimbrel’s. While Kimbrel’s stats were better last season, I think a new league and new hitters will have a hard time adjusting to Soriano’s stuff and he will be lethal coming out of the pen for the Nationals.
3- Craig Kimbrel – Atlanta Braves
I have Kimbrel ranked third here, but in reality he could actually be the top NL pitcher available. His last two seasons as the Atlanta Braves closer have been lights out ridiculously good. Tough to argue with a guy who actually improved upon a 46 save season, but that is exactly what he did last season. This probably comes down to preference, if you believe the Braves will improve upon last season’s record then you probably want to pick Kimbrel ahead of maybe Strasburg and Soriano; if on the other hand you are like me and see the Nationals winning 105-110 games then you probably want to pick one of their fantasy studs ahead of Kimbrel.
4- Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies
If 2011 marked a high point in Cliff Lee’s fantasy worth then 2012 marked the low. Injuries contributed to reduced velocity and loss of control for Lee; however, this season he should be poised for a comeback. Despite only posting 6 wins on the year, Lee had 23 quality starts out of 30 games started and still struck out over 200 batters. I rank Lee only slightly ahead of Gio Gonzalez here but it is by the slimmest of margins.
5- Gio Gonzalez – Washington Nationals
It was Gonzalez who led the Nationals in wins last season, check that, Gonzalez led the entire National League in wins last year. While duplicating that feat will be difficult he is nonetheless poised for another great fantasy year. If the walk totals and corresponding pitch counts can be lowered then the innings pitched will increase and that will bump Gonzalez’s overall fantasy value. Expect another season with 16 to 18 wins, around 200 strikeouts and an ERA that hovers around 2.90.
6- Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
Last season Cole Hamels was the Phillies best hurler. This season I’m expecting a bounce back year from Cliff Lee; however, Hamels is very much in contention for best of staff recognition once again. Hamels did post a career high in wins last season so bettering that number might be a stretch. Regardless, season end totals of 17 wins with 220 strikeouts is very attainable once again. Hamels represents great fantasy value as the lefty might just slip to the mid rounds given his third wheel status on the Phillies rotation.
7- Kris Medlen - Atlanta Braves
Despite coming back from Tommy John surgery, Medlen had an unbelievable 2012 season. Something to keep in mind when drafting Medlen is that he has yet to play a full season of major league baseball. If his arm can hold up to it, his innings pitched this season should see a dramatic jump and with it his strikeouts will increase as well. If Medlen can maintain arm strength throughout the season then a win total of 15-17 to go along with 175 strikeouts is very solid production. I really like this young man’s talent; however, I caution about overpaying for him due to the hype from last year, those numbers are simply unattainable when stretched over a full season of baseball.
8- Jordan Zimmermann – Washington Nationals
Zimmermann may very well be a product of pitching on a top-notch ball club. His win totals are likely squeued as a result of the Nationals success; however, there is no arguing against Zimmermann’s near 200 innings logged and sub 3.00 ERA from last season. Expect another solid year in 2013 as 15 wins and an ERA around 3.00 is likely. There could be real value in drafting Zimmermann as Gonzalez, Strasburg and Dan Haren could conceivably all go off the board before he does. If you see Zimmermann sitting there in the late rounds pick him up as there are far worse fantasy pitchers out there.
9- Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies
The biggest risk-reward pick of this top-ten bunch has got to be Roy Halladay. When healthy and in command of his pitches Halladay is a dominant starting pitcher capable of throwing a no-hitter every time out on the mound. Unfortunately Halladay battled shoulder injuries last season and that affected his delivery, velocity and command. Early reports out of Spring Training have Halladay throwing well but still not looking 100% healthy. There is a risk in drafting Halladay as any extended visit to the disabled list will cost you valuable fantasy points. Having said that, Halladay could be a terrific steal in your draft if too many people are scared off by last season and lingering injury concerns.
10- Dan Haren – Washington Nationals
Dan Haren gets a new start in Washington this season after the Los Angeles Angels declined an option year on his contract. The move to the National League should benefit Haren as he no longer has the overpowering fastball that the AL seems to demand. With the Nationals success, Haren should post a solid win total and if he can stay healthy 32 starts and around 200 innings are achievable. Haren’s ranking at number ten here shows the depth of pitching in this division as he is still a very solid starting pitcher who is capable of solidifying the back end of the Nationals pitching rotation.