Before the season began, I fully doubted Joey Gallo's ability to be a major contributor in 2017. The opportunity didn't seem to exist given the Texas Rangers lineup and that would force Gallo back to Triple-A, where he did not perform well in 2016. But then Adrian Beltre suffered a right calf strain and hasn't returned since.
Thus, another opportunity landed in the hands of the 23-year-old. With Beltre out, Gallo could stay at his more natural third base position and hit in a deep lineup with half his starts coming in a friendly ballpark that played into his power.
But how Gallo reacted to that opportunity is what matters. For a hitter that struck out nearly 35 percent of the time in Triple-A last season and 19 times in 40 plate appearances in the majors, Gallo needed to show some signs of progress to help keep some of the hope he'd ever live up to the hype that surrounded him for years.
The Optimist
The old saying "Chicks dig the long ball" has been around for years. But in reality, any baseball fan that is still living loves the moment when a human steps into the box and uses a stick to hit a baseball 400-plus feet. It's easy to see why a guy like Gallo, who many rated as a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball just two seasons ago, is loved so much.
Gallo's 70-plus grade power tantalizes us all. We think of the potential 50-plus home run seasons he can have and the sweet sound that will come off the bat when it makes contact before a majestic, eye-catching home run. It's the sound of beautiful music, unfortunately the musician's hit rate with songs left plenty to be desired in recent years.
This season, Gallo's magical tune shines a little more than it used to. While we are working off a small sample size, he has more than double the plate appearances this season as he did in 2016 and with that jump, his strikeout rate dipped.
What makes Gallo's strikeout numbers to begin the season so interesting is the variety that exists across different categories. A remarked improvement can be found in his swinging strike percentage, which sat at 22 percent the past two seasons but he has cut down to 15.7 percent this year. It's a remarkable improvement for Gallo. While the rate is still high and top-10 amongst qualified hitters, it's far better than his previous rates.
It's not so much Gallo laying off more pitches and showing more selectivity, he's just making contact a lot more this season. Gallo's overall contact rate is off to a much better start this season than in his past, going from below 53 percent in each of the last two seasons to 66.7 percent to start the 2017 season. We've seen even greater improvements on pitches inside the strike zone. In 75 plate appearances, he posted a 60 percent zone contact rate in his first two seasons and raised that number now to 80.9 percent on the year
Gallo's progress gives everyone hope that he can tap into more of his prestigious power and start sending baseballs 450-plus feet on a more consistent basis. He's done very well so far in the power department with a team-leading six home runs, three doubles and a 25 percent HR/FB rate in 75 plate appearances. The HR/FB rate is close to his career norms and his 63.2 fly ball percentage on balls in play, though unsustainable over a full season, tap into his career numbers.
So if he can sustain the HR/FB rate and keep a fly ball percentage close to his career numbers, a higher contact percentage could further fuel his power numbers and aid him in finally putting up the 30-plus home run season we've all wanted.
The Pessimist
Sure, there are some good numbers up there that can give hope Gallo comes through and can be who everyone wanted him to be. But even at this point, Gallo looks like a severe three-outcome player.
He holds a 13.3 walk percentage this season and throughout his career in the majors and minor leagues, demonstrated he can keep that number above 12 percent. But Gallo's 34.7 strikeout rate matches his numbers from Triple-A last season and would put him first amongst qualified hitters last season by two full points, if he played a full season.
Those are number teams have shown they are willing to live with up to a certain point. Chris Carter posted the second-highest strikeout rate last year at 32 percent, meanwhile he drew a walk in nearly 12 percent of his plate appearances. He also hit 41 home runs, posted an .821 OPS and finished the year with a 0.9 Wins Above Replacement. In exchange, he waited months until a part-time role with the New York Yankees opened up and saved him from a potential stay in Japan.
Gallo has better numbers in his favor than Carter did that year certainly. On the year, Gallo boasts an outstanding 151 wRC+,. 385 wOBA and .911 OPS, those numbers would lock him into the All Star Game. But Gallo's ratings versus specific pitches and what he is seeing right now raises concerns.
He loves fastballs, almost everyone does, and not many are better against the fastball than Gallo. He owns a 2.45 wFB/C grade this year, which ranks 30th amongst all qualified hitters. But even more so than fastballs, Gallo is teeing off on curveballs this year with a 5.23 wCB/C that puts him 21st amongst all qualified hitters. It further helps Gallo that pitchers are throwing him the fastball nearly 58 percent of the time this season, compared to under 52 percent each of his past two trips to the big leagues.
But Gallo's negative grades against all other pitches, especially -1.15 wSL/C (slider0, -3.34 wCT/C (cutter) and -1.40 wCH/C (changeup), demonstrate a hitter that still really performs poorly versus typical off-speed pitches. For DFS players, also keep in mind Gallo's abysmal -10.16 wSF/C (split finger), so keep him away from lineups if the starter he faces throws a split finger.
(Heatmap via FanGraphs)
It's then you pair that with Gallo's rising swing rate on pitches outside the zone from 27.3 percent to 29.6 percent from 2016 to 2017 and a contact rate that while remarkably improved, is still one of the lowest in baseball, you see how pitchers can attack Gallo even more going forward. Off-speed pitches outside the zone and on the inside of the plate, that's his weakness. As FanGraphs' heatmap shows, pitches on the inside corners that jam him still prove to be a trouble spot.
As the season moves on and pitchers game plan for Gallo's power, they'll know his weaknesses and attack them constantly. Then it will be up to him to adjust, just as he did on pitches on the outside corner of the zone, where Gallo has shown improvement this season. But his numbers must start improving against off-speed pitches or be able to do better on pitches inside. Otherwise, his wRC+ and OPS will decline, while his strikeout rate will go up and his batting average will continue to sit around .215.
Rest of Season Outlook:
Fantasy owners should operate under the idea that Gallo will be afforded playing time for the foreseeable future. Beltre's timetable for a return is still unknown and even whem Beltre returns to the hot corner, Texas could very well opt to transition Gallo into left field.
We very well could see Gallo make the adjustments that allow him to achieve a 40-plus home run season. On Tuesday night, Ervin Santana pushed him with an inside fastball and he sent that fastball 450-plus feet into the stands. So we are seeing the adjustments from Gallo that need to be made, especially the big improvements made from 2016 to this year.
But if I told you he'd finish the year around a .225 batting average with, 30-35 home runs and 200-plus strikeouts, what would that be worth. Miguel Sano< another high-end power and lower average slugger, carries a walk percentage nearly 10 points higher (21.4 to 12.8) than Gallo, sits in the top three of Minnesota's batting order and currently carries a better batting average.
In the end, I think we see pitchers make adjustments first and then Gallo go through weeks of struggles, before he figures it out and gets hot again. With him hitting in the bottom half of Texas lineup, a strikeout rate above 35 percent and an above average walk rate, I can't view Gallo as a top-125 player in fantasy. He'll contribute at a high level in one category (home runs), good production in walks and RBIs, but his batting average and strikeouts will cripple you.
Fresh off hitting his seventh home run of the season and with the hype train rolling, fantasy owners should try and sell Gallo right now. A major cold spell will come, Texas will eventually move him to a uncomfortable position which could also impact his comfort at the plate and numbers he puts up as a result. Then, if you want to land him again, you can try and buy low on him later on in the year.