The start of the regular season is only a few days and it took until now for free agent starting pitcher Alex Cobb to finally find a contract and landing spot he liked. On Tuesday, Cobb and the Baltimore Orioles agreed to a four-year, $57 million contract. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported word Cobb was close to an agreement with Baltimore
For months many saw Cobb sitting on the open market hoping for a multi-year deal for more than 14M AAAV was an unachievable dream given how poor free agency went for many players. Skepticism grew even larger after we saw Lance Lynn, a comparable pitcher, settle for a one-year deal worth $12 million with the Minnesota Twins two weeks ago. Yet Cobb remained patient and ultimately found a deal that, while less than what he might have hoped for at the start of free agency, is a good contract for the veteran starter.
Two years removed from Tommy John Surgery, Cobb served as a reliable piece of the Tampa Bay Rays rotation last season. While he didn't reach the marks we saw from him pre-TJS, Cobb made 29 starts last season and gave Tampa Bay 179 1/3 innings pitched. Over that span, he displayed impressive command with a 2.21 BB/9 and he maintained his status as a ground ball pitcher with a 47.8 percent ground ball rate.
The move to Camden Yards and remaining in the A.L. East isn't ideal for Cobb's fantasy value, but it won't kill him. The veteran righty already would have seen some ERA regression this season as his BABIP jumps back up to the .300 range and his 4.16 FIP from last season pushes his ERA back to the low fours this year. Where Cobb will hurt fantasy owners is the lack of strikeouts, as demonstrated by his 6.42 K/9 and 17.3 percent strikeout rate last season.
In deep fantasy leagues, Cobb is someone who can give you quality starts, rack up innings and for the most part keep the ERA down. Home runs shouldn't be too problematic for him given his ability to generate softer contact and more ground balls, so this shouldn't be overly concerning for fantasy owners. Though the fly balls he does give up will leave the yard on plenty of occurrences and it could lead to a HR/FB rate above 15 percent.