Heading into the last series before the All-Star break, we can start to see which teams are in it to win it this season, and which teams can start thinking about selling at the trade deadline. I know the standings don’t look quite like I thought they would at this point in the season, so I will talk about which five teams have been the most surprising at this point in the season, both surprisingly good teams and surprisingly bad.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox top my list of surprising teams, because for the first time in many seasons they were a popular pick to finish dead last in the AL East. I can’t blame the people who picked them to finish so low, if you think about a team that finished last place in 2012, and take away Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, and Carl Crawford, so it seemed like a team that was rebuilding. Apparently they know what they are doing in the Boston front office because this team is obviously ready to win right now. Getting Mike Napoli on a one-year, five-million dollar contract was a huge help, but the real reason this team is winning is their pitching staff. Clay Buchholz has been on fire when healthy, and he looks like he’s going to be back soon from his injury, and John Lackey and Jon Lester are having some great resurgent seasons. The Red Sox are a legitimate threat to go from worst to first this year, and make a run at another World Series title.
Pittsburgh Pirates
I know the Pirates seem to do this every year in the first half of the season, but it feels like they could keep it up this time. The Pirates pitching staff has been the best in baseball this year, leading the league in team ERA at 3.09, and Batting Average Against at an incredible .225. Unlike the Red Sox, the Pirates seem to be winning with a makeshift staff, having eleven pitchers make starts for them already. Andrew McCutchen is giving his usual All-Star performance, and Pedro Alvarez is having the best season of his young career. The Pirates have fooled us before, but I think it will be a different story this fall, with Pittsburgh playing in the postseason.
San Francisco Giants
The winners of two of the last three World Series’, I certainly didn’t expect the Giants to be tied for last in the NL West heading into the All-Star break. What was expected to be so good for the Giants was their pitching, and it just hasn’t been. The Giants rank 20th in the Majors in team ERA at 4.15, and they aren’t getting much help from the top end of their rotation with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum both having below-average years. In their two recent championship seasons, the Giants have added key pieces at the trade deadline, but those moves have cost the Giants some of their top prospects. If I were running the Giants, and saw some their best players having poor seasons, I would have to take advantage of their unfortunate situation, and become sellers at the trade deadline, which would essentially end their chances at a postseason run this year.
Los Angeles Angels
I guess after last year I shouldn’t be surprised, but after adding Josh Hamilton I really didn’t think the Angels were going to struggle offensively again. For some reason, big time sluggers are having a hard time adjusting to Anaheim. Hamilton is struggling similarly to Albert Pujols’ first season, but also like Pujols, seems to be coming around in the summer months. I didn’t think the Angels rotation would struggle as much either, because I didn’t feel like they were really replacing Zack Greinke since he was a late season addition anyway. Essentially they swapped Ervin Santana, Tommy Hanson, and Jerome Williams for Jason Vargas, Joe Blanton, and Tommy Hanson. Santana has been close to an All-Star in Kansas City, Hanson has been out so much that Williams has had to make a lot of starts in his place, and Blanton was getting rocked early in his first season with the Angels. Overall, it looks like the Angels are going to struggle with this core team for a while if they can’t upgrade their rotation, which is going to be hard to do with so much money tied up in their lineup, and not a lot of high-end prospects to trade with.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals aren’t doing terrible, but they were the most popular team I saw picked to win the World Series this year, so it’s pretty surprising to me that they are only a few games over .500 at the All-Star break. Their pitching staff is doing well as expected, but the offense is really struggling. The Nationals rank 27th in the league in runs, batting average, and on-base percentage. Part of their offensive struggles has to do with the fact the Bryce Harper was out for so long, so they should improve since he has recently come back. Adam LaRoche has stepped it up after struggling early in the season, and they are getting more production out of their second base spot in the lineup since Anthony Rendon has replaced Danny Espinosa in the starting lineup. If the Nationals are going to make a postseason run, it may have to be through winning the wild-card game since the Braves have built up a healthy lead in the NL East.