It’s only three weeks into the new MLB season, but some of the pre-season candidates for the National League MVP award have already started to separate themselves from the pack with a white hot start.  Some of the other usual suspects are having a little tougher time getting out of the gate.  Here is a look at how some of the biggest names in the National League have started the season. 
 

Starting Strong

Justin Upton, Atlanta Braves

Many experts thought that Justin Upton moving from Arizona to Atlanta this offseason to anchor the Braves outfield alongside his brother B.J. Upton would be a shot in the arm for Upton.  So far those experts are looking very wise, as Upton has had as hot of a start as anyone in the National League.  Upton’s nine homeruns lead the NL, and his .313 batting average is almost 50 points above his career average.  Upton’s hot start has been one of the main reasons for the Braves setting the pace with the best record in baseball.  If he keeps up this pace, not only should Upton expect to be one of the NL MVP finalists, but the Braves should also expect to make a deep run in the playoffs.


Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies

After sitting out most of the 2012 season, it looks like Troy Tulowitzki is back to his all-star form in the beginning of 2013.  Tulowitzki’s hot start has placed him among the league leaders in homeruns with five, and RBI with 16 in the early campaign.  Widely believed to be the best shortstop in baseball, Tulowitzki’s early success has helped the Rockies to jump out to an early lead in the NL West, despite the hefty payroll of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the recent success of the San Francisco Giants.  It may be unreasonable to expect the Rockies to hang in there at the top of the NL West all season long, but a comeback season from Tulowitzki could help them hang in there deep in the summer.


Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds

Perhaps not the Red you would expect to see on this list, but Brandon Phillips has trailed only Robinson Cano as far as second basemen who are also offensive weapons over the past few seasons.  Phillips is near leading the league in RBI with 20, while only playing in 17 games so far. As long as new Cincinnati lead-off man Shin-Soo Choo continues to get on base as much as he has been, Phillips should have plenty of RBI opportunities still to come this season.  His four homeruns put him on pace to have his best homerun total since he hit 30 in 2007.  The only negative number that jumps out from the start of Phillips’ season is his lack of any stolen bases so far.  In fact, he has yet to attempt a stolen base so far this season, which is odd given he’s averaged about 20 a year since he joined the Reds.  The more he assumes the role of power hitter an RBI producer, he may be less inclined to steal bases, or perhaps he may just not want to risk getting thrown out stealing bases with power hitters Joey Votto and Jay Bruce batting behind him in the lineup.

An Average Start

Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

Braun’s AVG/HR/RBI line of .283/4/13 might not look very different from some of the strong starters, but this line is a little misleading given that two of those homeruns, and five of those RBI have come in his last three games.  Even with those last few games, for someone who has been averaging over 30 homeruns and well over 100 RBI a year, you might expect a little stronger start from the Milwaukee slugger.  While his batting average is about 30 points below his career average, I wouldn’t call that a major concern, as his on-base percentage is still above .400 in the early season.  After all, it has been a lot easier to pitch around Braun in the Brewer’s lineup since Prince Fielder left for Detroit in 2012.  Braun’s start isn’t a huge concern, but he is going to have to pick it up a bit to be considered one of the MVP candidates in the National League this season, or if his Brewers are going to have a chance to contend with Cincinnati and St. Louis in the NL Central.


Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

McCutchen is another NL Central player who is only having an average start to the season given his recent success.  His .273 batting average is close to his career average, but he only has two homeruns and 12 RBI in the young season.  His on-base percentage is also looking a bit low at .333, 40 points below his career average, as he’s not walking as much with only five on the year so far, but he’s also not striking out as much either.  McCutchen has gotten off to a good start with six stolen bases, so he’s well on pace to eclipse his career average of 20.

Need to pick it up

Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

Posey, the reigning NL MVP, batting champion, and 167-million dollar man is off to an awfully slow start out in San Francisco after being signed to an eight-year extension this offseason.  He’s also only got one homerun this year, even though he’s averaged over 20 per season in his only two full seasons.  Posey may just be catching a little bit of bad luck early in the season, as he only has ten strikeouts, and he’s still a career .310 hitter even though that career is still a relatively small sample size.  The catch here is that catchers skills will decline faster than most players because of the stress catching puts on the knees defensively, which may have some Giants fans worried about that eight-year contract.  I don’t think this is a serious concern however, and I believe Posey will likely pick it up and be back to hitting .300 in no time.


Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Maybe a bit of a stretch here saying Joey Votto needs to pick it up, as he’s hitting .328, but Votto is a big-time power hitter who only has three homeruns and seven RBI in the season so far.  The 2010 MVP is starting to run into a problem seen by many of the game’s other great hitters; no one will pitch to him.  In 19 games, he’s already drawn 25 walks.  It might be getting frustrating not being able to drive in a ton of runs, but if pitchers aren’t going to give him anything to hit, he’s better off taking the walks than chasing pitches out of the zone.  I’m convinced this type of frustration is what caused Albert Pujols to start off slow last year, and ultimately he started chasing a lot of pitches out of the zone, resulting in the lowest walk rate of his career.  If Votto can avoid chasing pitches, eventually he’ll get some pitches in the zone and he should be able to bring those numbers back up.

Other names to watch

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

With Bryce Harper’s long powerful swing, he seems like the kind of hitter who’s going to hit a lot of homeruns, but strike out a lot with an average on-base percentage.  So far this season, Harper has been the best of both worlds with seven homeruns while still sporting a .369 batting average and .431 on-base percentage.  If he can keep this up, he’ll be an MVP candidate for sure this season.


Matt Harvey, New York Mets

With only 14 career games started, MVP for Matt Harvey might seem a bit premature, but top national analysts in baseball are already making big statements about him.  I’ve heard at least one analyst say if they were starting a team from scratch today, they would take Harvey over Steven Strasburg, and another say he’s already the best pitcher in baseball.  Starting pitchers don’t win a lot of MVP awards, but Harvey’s early stats this season of a 0.93 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, and a 3.5:1 K/BB ratio suggest that he’s the real deal.