Keys to the AL Wild Card Game

Let’s start with this: projections are tough, especially in one-game winner takes all formats.

The AL wild card matchup will feature very different teams, as the upstart / surprising / overachieving Baltimore Orioles travel to Texas to play the two-time World Series finalist Rangers.

Baltimore has been surprisingly consistent through the year, never falling below third place.  They’ve had a lot of luck go their way in 2012, with a .763 winning percentage in one-run games, while winning 16 consecutive extra-inning games.
Texas has to be disappointed to be playing on Friday. Heavily favoured to repeat in the AL West, the Rangers led their division from April 9th, only surrendering it with a final game loss to the upstart Oakland Athletics. Similar to Baltimore, they feature a dominant bullpen, but also have a stacked offense that wears down opposing teams.  They’re a much better team when playing at home, with a 50-31 won-loss record at Arlington.

We’ll provide some keys to the game, along with a forecasted winner, recognizing how agonizingly tough it can be to pick a winner in one-game formats.

AL Wild Card Game:
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers – Friday October 5 at 8:30 PM ET

Starting Pitchers:
Joe Saunders (Orioles) vs Yu Darvish (Rangers)

Keys to the Game:

1. Yu Darvish’s control. As the featured offseason signing from the Nippon Baseball League, Darvish has had an equally exciting and frustrating first season in the majors.  He’s shown plenty of signs that he can be the dominant pitcher everyone expected when the Rangers signed him. He features six-plus dominant pitches¬¬¬¬¬¬ and struck out 221 batters this year (5th in the AL), but also walked 89 (4th most in the AL).  He’s been reluctant to use his fastball to full effect, not pitching inside to hitters.

Baltimore features some heavy sluggers (Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds, Matt Weiters and Adam Jones) that can make for some big scoring innings. Their power can be neutralized by pitching inside. I expect Darvish will feature his best stuff and strong command: he’s shown increased command through September (just 7 BB in 35 INN) and it’s translated to his best month yet. Opposing batters are managing just a .433 OPS against him for the month.

2. Use of Baltimore’s bullpen firearms if Saunders does not last long. Saunders is no ace, as Baltimore picked him up in a late-season deal from the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has been effective in September, pitching to a 2.75 ERA and opposing batter .674 OPS. Historically, Saunders has struggled against the Rangers in Arlington, with an 0-6 record and 9.38 ERA in the Lone Star State. With their dominant bullpen, manager Buck Showalter will surely have a short hook for Saunders.

Showalter has managed his team through September as if each game is a one-game playoff. He’s shown no issue with emptying his bullpen to get the pitcher-batter matchup he wants.  I can see him using Darren O’Day and Pedro Stroop early if needed. The longer the game stays close, one has to favour the Orioles, as their power-heavy lineup has the opportunity to hit the go-ahead home run necessary to bring closer Jim Johnson to the game.

3. Ian Kinsler’s offensive prowess at home, and against Saunders. Kinsler has had a polarizing 2012 season; he’s been a strong performer in Texas (135 runs created), while struggling all season on the road (62 runs created).  He also features excellent career numbers against Joe Saunders (.464 OBP and 1.000 SLG in 24 ABs).

Kinsler can disrupt the game with a home run or his speed on the bases.  Playing on home field while facing a pitcher he’s owned through his career, I expect he’ll play a key role in securing an early Texas lead against Saunders.

Prediction: Rangers will knock Saunders out of the game by the 4th inning.  Showalter will play mix-and-match with his bullpen through the middle innings, but it won’t prove to be enough as Texas will ride Darvish’s strong pitching performance for a trip to New York for the AL semifinals.