Keys to the NL Wild Card Game

Let’s start with this: projections are tough, especially in one-game winner takes all formats. 

Major League Baseball moved to expand the playoffs for 2012, adding an additional wild card to each league.  As a result, each league’s two Wild Card entries play in a one-game playoff, the winner moving onto face the best team in their respective league (AL: New York; NL: Washington). The NL matchup will feature the two teams that battled out for last year’s Wild Card entry, as the St. Louis Cardinals will travel to Atlanta to face the Braves.

We’ll provide some keys to the game, along with a forecasted winner, recognizing how agonizingly tough it can be to pick a winner in one-game formats.

NL Wild Card Game:
National League St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves – Friday October 5 at 5 ET

Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals (2.86 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 6.1 K/1.6 BB/0.8 HR per 9 innings)
Kris Medlen, Braves (1.57 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 7.8 K/1.5 BB/0.4 HR per 9 innings)

Keys to the Game:
1. Cardinals’ Lohse’s ability to neutralize the Braves’ dominant left-handed heavy bats. RHP Lohse will face a solid Braves lineup that features left handed batters Michael Bourne, Freddie Freeman Jayson Heyward and Chipper Jones (switch hitter, but is a better hitter from his left side). Lohse has no discernible platoon splits against left handed batters, but will be tested against these heavy bats. Freeman and Heyward have fared significantly better against RHP than against LHPs. Lohse is no strikeout pitcher (5.88 / 9) so he'll be tested to beat these dominant left bats 3-4 times each through the game.

2. Braves’ catcher David Ross ability to neutralize the Cardinals running game. The Braves made a surprising lineup change Thursday, removing starting catcher Brian McCann from the lineup in favour of backup Ross. The Cardinals are have a strong running game (91 SB, 37 CS), especially since the season ending injury to Lance Berkman. With Medlen starting for the Braves, the Cardinals will need to have any batters reaching base in motion, as hitting opportunities against Medlen are limited. However, with Ross at catcher, their running will be tested.  Only 17% of runners on base attempt to steal against Ross, and he’s been effective at nabbing 44% of them.

3. Braves’ Manager Fredie Gonzalez timely use of Craig Kimbrel. Gonzalez has progressively learnt from last years’ September meltdown, showing an improved ability to use dominant closer Kimbrel at opportune (read: non-save) situations this year. Let’s be clear: this is a one-game winner take all, so minimizing team’s opportunity for the big inning will likely decide the winner. Kimbrel strikes out 16.6 per nine innings (nearly 2 per inning) and his stranded runners rate is 92%. He’s the most dominant single-inning weapon in the game (sorry Aroldis Chapman), so Gonzalez needs to have a quick call for Kimbrel if Medlen or other relievers stack excessive Cardinals runners on base.

Prediction: Braves win in a close pitching-dominant game, with Kimbrel gets the stage necessary to erase his 9th inning meltdown in game number 162 last year.