The Kansas City Royals came so close to destiny on October 29, 2014. A small budget team no one expected to reach the World Series had Alex Gordon standing at third base and Salvador Perez at the plate with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.
But San Francisco Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner stood in their path to history. Bumgarner turned in one of the greatest stretches of performance in World Series history with 21 innings of one-run ball, which included a five-inning save in Game 7 just three days after a complete game shutout. If not for this herculean performance, the Royals certainly would have been World Series champions for the first time in 29 years.
But destiny made them wait for their chance. One year and a five-run 12th inning later, Royals closer Wade Davis recorded the final three outs to win the World Series and end the franchise's 30-year drought.
Unfortunately for the Royals, all empires fall. As quickly as Kansas City became a power in the American League, it fell just as swiftly. Baseball gave the little guy a shot at greatness and the Royals reached the pinnacle. But for small market teams, it can only be a taste of excellence before money and free agency drive a core apart.
Kansas City's foundation centered around its bullpen and a young lineup. A bullpen that boasted the three-headed monster of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland for years, now has Herrera on his own.
Meanwhile, the Royals lineup could soon change. Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Alcides Escobar are all expected to be free agents this offseason. Four core pieces of this organization's success over the years, who saw the team rise from rags to riches, could all be in new uniforms at this time next season.
Early last week, Kansas City sat at the bottom of the standings. The team climbed its way up recently, but questions about the future remain. In a division with the Cleveland Indians and an American League postseason race that will feature the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox and a second team to break out of its slump in the A.L. West, a scenario where the Royals become a playoff contender seems remote at best.
With many key contributors headed for free agency with eyes on life-altering contracts that can help provide for their families, the Royals are put between a rock and a hard place.
Do they attempt to hang on and keep fighting, with a message of not giving up on the season and then attempt to try and re-sign some of their critical free agents? It presents a major risk for a team that is 15th in the payroll and would certainly want to cut back if the playoff success doesn't come. If the players bolt for greener pastures, Kansas City is left relying on compensation picks outside of the first round.
The better scenario might be a fire sale, using whatever present assets the team holds on its major league roster that can help other teams contend in exchange for prospects. It's needed, given the Royals depleted farm system. In MinorLeagueBall's preseason farm system rankings, Kansas City ranked 25th. Baseball America ranked the Royals minor league system 26th. Even worse, Kansas City didn't have a single prospect ranked in BA's updated top 100, nor in MLB.com's updated top 100 list.
For team's that operate on a smaller payroll, they need multiple players under team-friendly deals and at the bottom of the pay scale. The best way to get that is by developing prospects and taking advantage of the six years of team control. It's what made the Royals so successful before and it's what they'll need to do in order to reach the top again.
Fortunately, Kansas City boasts plenty of trade assets. Hosmer, Cain and Moustakas could all fetch nice returns for the Royals. While they're all rental players, which will reduce the overall return, there will be multiple bidders.
Look around baseball and you'll see potential playoff contenders with massive holes in the outfield, corner infield spots, rotation and bullpen. Whatever a team needs, Kansas City has it.
But it doesn't stop there for Kansas City. Ian Kennedy registered a 3.03 ERA and 7.82 K/9 in six starts to start the season before a hamstring injury sidelined him. He could slide into the middle of a rotation perfectly and provide quality innings and starts for a contender. He can opt out of his contract this offseason, but if he remained under team control he'd make $49 million total over the next three seasons.
Fellow starting pitcher Jason Vargas could be a beneficial trade chip as well. The 34-year-old is in the last year of his deal, but with a 2.15 FIP and .205 batting average allowed to opposing batters in seven starts, he too would make for a reliable mid-rotation starter. Vargas' increased effectiveness of his changeup and curveball this season have put him front and center on the map and if it continues, will make him a hot commodity on the trade market later this season.
Kansas City would also attract plenty of interest from contenders if they made Joakim Soria and Kelvin Herrera available. Two effective late-inning relievers who could pitch in set up or closer roles for a contender and serve no purpose for a team in transition. While they wouldn't fetch an Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman-like return, they'd land Kansas City more than enough in young talent.
The trade market will be flooded with buyers, especially in the American League. The Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians all have needs that could be addressed by at least one of the Royals potential trade candidates.
It would create an ideal seller's market for Kansas City and play right into their hands as they have rivals and playoff competitors bid against each other.
Perhaps a perfect partnership for a deal could be the Royals and Washington Nationals. The Nationals are in desperate need of a reliable closer for manager Dusty Baker and they need a center fielder who can get on base, steal bases and play defense.
Cain fits that bill perfectly and as an impending free agent, they could let him walk when Adam Eaton returns healthy next season. Meanwhile, Herrera could slide in as Washington's closer with Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover performing as great set-up men. In exchange, Kansas City could land outfielder Victor Robles.
While Robles is likely two years away, he is a consensus top-10 overall prospect in baseball and seen as a five-tool player in the mold of Andrew McCutchen. A player of that caliber if developed correctly, under team control for multiple years, and with a reloaded farm system.
It could be a tough decision to make for the Royals. Giving up on a season is tough, but trading all of these starters would likely surrender the 2018 season as well and make 2019 a transition year. But it very well could be the best move for this organization in the long-term and put them right back into the playoff cycle a few years down the road.
While the Royals might have fallen from the king's throne, this July could give them opportunity to build a new kingdom and give their fans a very bright future to look forward to.