With the 2012 regular season coming to a close, we’re reflecting on 2012’s biggest surprises and disappointments to predict their performance or forecast for 2013.

We’re taking a division-by-division approach and given you the highs (2012 surprises) and lows (2012 disappointments) in each. We’ll look back at players’ predicted 2012 performance and determine those players that significantly over or undershot these predictions with their actual performance.

Next up, the National League Central Disappointments

Pitchers

Shawn Marcum – Milwaukee Brewers acquired the five-pitch SP Marcum in a 2010 offseason trade with the Toronto Blue Jays that sent top prospect Brett Lawrie back to Canada.  Marcum was the Jays’ number one starter in 2010 and performed similarly with the Brewers in the playoff-bound 2011 campaign.  He posted 7.09 K/9, a 3.54 ERA to compile a 2.8 WAR.  Marcum tired in September and was clearly bagged by the time the playoffs began.  Nonetheless, the season was a success for Marcum and the Brewers looked forward to 2012 continuation of his steady performances. FanGraphs predicted a 2.8 WAR and 3.66 ERA for Marcum’s 2012 campaign.

Marcum started 2012 in similar fashion to his 2011, but his performance worsened until he went on the disabled list in June. He’d reported elbow injuries similar that similarly led to his Tommy John surgery in 2008.  He rehabbed through June and July, returning to the Brewer rotation in August. His season peripherals are in line with his career averages (2012 numbers are: 7.91 K/9, 2.98 BB/9 and 3.70 ERA), but advanced peripherals provide a stronger warning about this upcoming free agent: his ground ball ratio has fallen, while his line drive and fly ball rates have risen; his fastball velocity has dropped (86.3 MPH) and thus he’s using it a career low at just 30% of all pitches.  Finally, he’s pitching less – he’s not lasted more than six innings since his June injury trip. He’ll end 2012 with just a 1.4 WAR.

I’ve always liked Marcum because of his pitch command and array of pitches.  However, his inverted-W delivery has always been a source of worry, and these concerns may be reappearing.  I’d be careful about Marcum in 2013; any team that signs him will get a starting pitcher that relies on strong command and pitch array, but they should not expect the highs we saw between 2010 and 2011.  He’s a decent #3 pitcher, but we should be cautious about expecting 30+ starts from him moving forward.

Mike Leake – Leake was a rookie SP on the Cincinnati Reds 2010 playoff team, starting 22 games to a 4.22 ERA on a team lacking any quality pitching.  He upped his performance in early 2011 before sliding back to league average performance through the  second half. He ended 2011 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.5 WAR while upping his innings pitched to 167.

Leake was projected as a middle-ranked pitcher in the Reds 2012 rotation. While he continued to sport a very low strikeout ratio (2011 was 6.33/9), he kept the ball in the yard, with low fly ball rates (25.6%) and line drive ratios (24.5%). Fangraphs projected some 2012 improvement, pegging him at a 2.5 WAR.

Leake’s defied these projections and clearly settled into what are career norms.  He’s continued to strike out a low number of batters (5.83/9; league average is 7.10), while not being terribly effective with his command (2.83 BB/9). He’s also yielding more HRs, as 16.7% of his fly balls allowed have left the yard in 2012 (up from career averages of 13%).

Leake doesn’t profile with the swing-and-miss stuff (just a 6.9% swinging strike rate), nor the command to indicate there’s any room for improvement. We can expect continued 2013 performance in-line with his 2012 season.  I’d avoid him in all but the deepest NL-only fantasy drafts.

Rickie Weeks - Weeks is one of the core young players to help return the Brewers to NL Central contention. He logged outstanding 2007, 2008 and 2010 campaigns and was on his way to a career year in 2011 before a  severe ankle sprain injury limited him to 118 games. On his return, he continued his strong play, ending 201 with 126 wRC+ based on a .818 OPS.

Coming into his age 30 season, forecasters expected another strong year. Bill James forecasted a .348 wOBA with an .806 OPS. Fangraphs pegged him at a 5.1 WAR. Instead Weeks has logged a mildly disappointing year, with just 101 wRC+, a .323 wOBA and a .727 OPS. His compiling statistics have been strong (21 HR, 84 RBI), but he’s just not has hits go through that may have in the past (.285 BABIP). Strangely, his plate discipline is in line with career numbers (62% z-Swing; 21% o-Swing) yet he’ll end the year with a lowly .227 AVG. The only statistical explanation I’ve seen for his poorer performance is his increased vulnerability against fastballs through 2012.

Weeks remains an elite offensive 2B that’s run into an uncharacteristically poor year with little clear explanation for his low hit totals.  He experienced a tough first half (BA reached just .151 in late May) before improving through the remainder of 2012. I see no reason that Weeks won’t return to his career norms in 2013. 

Devin Mesoraco - Mesoroaco was a stud catcher coming up through the Cincinnatio Reds system, teaming with Yasmani Grandal to load the Reds with top-flight catching prospects.  Grandal was traded to the Padres last offseson (for Mat Latos) to make way for Mesoraco to become the number one Reds catcher for 2012 and beyond.

Mesoraco was expected to combine a solid bat with outstanding defence behind the plate.  Fangraphs pegged him for .314 wOBA and .754 OPS - solid numbers for a rookie with just 18 prior games MLB experience.

Instead Mesoraco has badly struggled in his 2012 rookie season. He'll end the year with a .272 wOBA and just a 65 wRC+ (meaning he is 35 runs created below the norm for a regular at his position). However, his plate displine (especially for a rookie) has been strong: he's walking in over 9% of his plate appearances and he's been selective with pitches (o-Swing% of 32%, z-Swing% of 73%).  He's had very poor luck on balls put in play - his BABIP is just .234 against a league average of .300. With his young age, and undisputed role as the #1 catcher, Mesoraco will get plenty of chances to improve in 2013.  His professional career is filled with success at every level and I fully expect he'll improve in 2013.  Mark him down for 14 HRs, 100 wOBA+ and strong defence behind the plate.

2012 Honorable Mentions: Pedro Alvarez, Brett Wallace