With the 2012 regular season coming to a close, we’re reflecting on 2012’s biggest surprises and disappointments and try to predict their performance or forecast for 2013.

We’re taking a division-by-division approach and given you the highs (2012 surprises) and lows (2012 disappointments) in each. We’ll start by looking back at players’ predicted 2012 performance and determine those players that significantly over or undershot these predictions with their actual performance.

Next up, the National League East Surprises

Pitchers

Jair Jurriens – Jair has rapidly fallen from the highs of being an NL All Star selection in 2011.  He’d accumulated three seasons as a solid starter, flashing a 95 MPH fastball.  After injuring his knee in the 2011 second half, his season began to spiral down. This decline was most evidenced in a K:BB ratio that reached nearly 1.00.  With a glut of starting pitching, the Braves were actively trying to trade him after their 2011 season-end collapse, but no team would bite.

Jair started 2012 in the team’s starting five, largely a function of his $5.5M salary.  It was a chance for the Braves to showcase him for trade.  Instead, he rewarded them with worsening performance; his average fastball velocity dropped to 88 MPH and, his K:BB was 1.06 (contrasted with +2 in his strong seasons) and his strikeouts per nine dropped to just 3.5.  Jair was removed from the rotation and demoted to AAA.

It’s pretty clear that Jair has failed to recover from his 2011 knee injury. We can suspect that it’s impacted his delivery and thus his power and command are off. Much as I like Jair as he came up through the Braves system, I would not forecast any 2013 production from him.

Heath Bell – There were warning signs when Bell left the Padres and their spacious stadium, signing a three year free agent contract with the Florida Marlins.  Bell has long been an extreme fly ball pitcher, with a career FB% (38%) above league average (34%), his issues masked by the large confines of Petco Park.  Case in point: in 2012, only 1.6% of his fly balls left the park as a home run.

As per expectations, Bell’s 2012 has not matched his past dominant performance, with a +5 ERA and 8 BS.  Manager Ozzie Guillen has yanked Bell in and out of the official Closer role through the season.  Bell is not striking out batters at the clip he was in his prime (just 8.3 / 9 INN) and his strand rate has worsened.  He has been a victim of bad luck, with a BABIP over .340, but there’s just too many signs that Bell has irreversibly declined. Given his contract terms, expect him to get save opportunities in 2013, but he will not return as an elite closer.

2012 Honorable Mention:  Frank Francisco, Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay

Batters

2012 Disappointments

Logan Morrison – Another Marlin to make this list, big 2012 gains were expected of Morrison.  All prediction systems expected 20+ HRs, good plate discipline (career BB rate over 10%) a WAR over 3.0.  He was seen as a young, five-tooled outfielder to tandem with Giancarlo Stanton in the middle of the Marlins lineup.

Between poor performance and injuries, Morrison has taken major steps back in 2012. In 93 games, he’s managed just 11 HRs, his BB% has dropped to 9%, and his isolated power (ISO) dropped from .221 to .169.  This statistic indicates that Morrison is averaging fewer extra base per hit than he’s accumulated in the past.

2012 has not been kind to the Marlins or Morrison; it has surely meant some re-evaluation of the player they have in CF. There are reasons to think Morrison can bounce back; he’s young, his plate discipline (2012 o-swing% is 23%) remains above league average (average is 25%). He’s also had very poor luck on balls put in play, as evidenced by his BABIP of .243. I’d expect some recovery in 2013 and see him settle back to numbers he posted in 2011.

Brian McCann – McCann has long been one of the game’s elite catchers. He’s been the lead batter in a powerhouse Braves team.  The Braves have built a strong team around McCann, recognizing they had a chance for the postseason before his impending free agency at the end of 2013. Coming into 2012, his three prior WARs (2009-2011) were 4.1, 4.2 and 5.2. 

McCann has dealt with a sore shoulder all season and it’s clearly impacted his performance. He’s sporting a career low .297 OBP and has just a 1.8 WAR.  He continues to play regularly and many of his counting stats (HR, Runs) seem in line with past performance.

There’s clearly a lot of extenuating circumstances in his 2012 performance, and on top of his injury, he’s been victim to some of the worst luck in the game; his .228 BABIP is much below his .297 line. McCann remains a player in his prime that’s tried to play through injury given his place at a vital position. I have no doubt McCann will bounce back in 2013; he’s a good buy-low candidate, especially considering he’ll have the extra motivation of playing for a new contract at the conclusion of 2013.

2012 Honorable Mentions:  Michael Morse, Placido Polanco