I’m a new member to the exciting lineup of journalists here on eDraft. I’m a hyper-enthusiastic baseball fan and will be contributing to eDraft’s baseball roster/ content.
With the increased awareness of saber metric statistics and data analytics in baseball, I think there’s a place for baseball commentary that looks at player, team and boarder league wide trends that we can find in number-sources. Sources like Fan Graphs and Baseball Reference are incredible baseball data warehouses that I'll draw on in my future baseball commentary.
With the 2012 regular season coming to a close, we’ll start with a series of columns that look at 2012’s baseball surprises and disappointments and try to predict their performance or forecast for 2013.
We’ll take a division-by-division approach and given you the highs (2012 surprises) and lows (disappointments) in each. We’ll start by looking back at players’ predicted 2012 performance and determine those players that significantly over or undershot these predictions with their actual performance.
American League East Surprises
Pitchers
Fernando Rodney – A journeyman by the start of 2012, no one expected Rodney’s 2012 brilliance. He’s gone from mop-up to closer, leading the Rays bullpen in every major statistical category. Marcel projected a 4.22 ERA from the 35 year-old. Instead, he’s turned in a 0.64 ERA, league leading 44 saves and a sparkling 4.92 K:BB ratio. This is a Dennis Eckersley-like season and no one should expect such performance repeated.
With a team option that will easily be picked up, Joe Maddon will continue to use Rodney in similar situations next year. Everyone has to expect some regression to the mean. With a team built around pitching and run prevention, Rodney will continue to get plenty of save opportunities. We can’t expect the same sparkling ERA or peripheral statistics, but a solid 30+ save, ~3.00 ERA is easily within reach.
Jason Hammel – He was traded in to Baltimore in what was a swap of equally frustrating arms (from Colorado, for Jeremy Guthrie). Baltimore clearly came out winners on this trade. Hammel was projected by Marcel for a 4.47 ERA and 2.17 K:BB ratio. When healthy, he’s been their ace with a 3.43 ERA and a 2.69 K:BB in a tougher division. Baltimore has run into a lot of 2012 luck, and Hammel has been such a benefactor; his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as been .234, which is substantially lower than league average. We can expect some regression in 2013, though he’ll a decent middle rotation pickup. I’d expect a mid 3 ERA with a WHIP around 1.20.
2012 Honorable Mention: Wei Yin Chen, Casey Jannsen and Pedro Stroop
Hitters
Chris Davis – Long on power, short on plate approach, Davis has long tempted his teams. Finally traded from Texas to Baltimore in 2011, the question was Buck Showalter would have the patience to stick with Davis though his strikeouts to tap into his enormous power. Davis has been slotted all over the diamond and he’s rewarded them with 26 HRs and an .787 on base plus slugging (OPS). He’s walking more and even added a win while pitching 2 innings in Boston. As long as he gets 500+ ABs, fans can bank on a lot of strikeouts and 20 home runs.
Will Middlebrooks – It’s hard to find positives in the Red Sox 2012 campaign, but going into the season, Middlebrooks was not on the major league roster and there were few baseball predictions for him. By mid-season, he was a regular at 3B and had forced Ben Cherrington’s hand to trade New England favorite Kevin Youkilis.
Middlebrooks has been injured through August and September, but there’s a lot of positives from his 2012 campaign; his power numbers and hitting was consistent in 250+ ABs. He’ll need to learn to take a walk, with just 13 in 251 ABs, but expect him as Boston’s 2013 regular 3B and he’ll be given the chance to improve his plate discipline through the season with 600 plate appearances.
2012 Honorable Mention: Edwin Encarnacion (his 2012 production could have been predicated based on his improved plate discipline in the 2nd half of 2011), Russell Martin and Adam Jones