With the 2012 regular season coming to a close, we’re reflecting on 2012’s biggest surprises and disappointments to predict their performance or forecast for 2013.

We’re taking a division-by-division approach and given you the highs (2012 surprises) and lows (2012 disappointments) in each. We’ll start by looking back at players’ predicted 2012 performance and determine those players that significantly over or undershot these predictions with their actual performance.Next up, the National League East Surprises

Pitchers

Gio Gonzalez – Gonzalez was traded from Oakland to Washington in the 2011 winter offseason.  Gonzalez had high career BB and had home run troubles (when on the road).  Combination of these rates did not bode well for him as he left the confines of Oakland’s spacious Coliseum. Bill James predicted 11 wins, an 8.94 K/9, 4.09 ERA with a HR/9 of 0.95. Solid performance, but not in-line with the elite prospects Washington traded for him.

Gonzalez has been a revelation to the Nationals, as the young team has made the leap from .500 to division winners.  Gonzalez has been the team’s ace, picking up his 20th win this week.  He’s lowered his HR/9 to 0.42 while his K/9 has ticked above 9/9 INN. He’s a leading candidate for CY Young and will be the Nat’s #1 playoff starter in light of the (poorly constructed) Strasburg shutdown.  Gonzalez has had luck on his side though; just 6% of his fly balls are leaving the park as home runs (league average is 10.6%) and his BABIP is .264, much below league average.  There’s little question he’s a solid pitcher moving forward, but I’ll chalk 2012 up as his career bests and look for some regression in 2013.

Kris Medlen – Medlen has been in the Braves system since 2006, steadily rising until Tommy John surgery derailed him in late 2010.  He did not pitch in 2011, save for 2 innings.  He came into 2012 on a pitch limit and there were low expectations for him.  Bill James forecasted a 3.08 ERA in 71 innings. No doubt he was seen a solid performer, but his work would be limited.

For the past six weeks, Medlen has been pitching like the second coming of Walter Johnson.  Since moved to the starting rotation (see Jurriens, Jair), he’s sporting a 1.64 ERA in 131 innings, with a K:BB over 5. He’s positioned himself as the Braves’ starting pitcher for the one-game NL wild card game. The Braves have a strong rotation and there are good reasons to think their excess SP could address other gaps this offseason.

There’s no question Medlen is a good pitcher, but he’s rolled performance and luck into one.  His strand rate above 85% is not sustainable and his BABIP of .266 is well below anything he’s achieved at any other stop in his professional career.  He’s not a high strikeout pitcher (just 7.91 K/9) either.  I would steer clear of expecting Medlen to lead the Braves rotation in 2013 and go with the safer bets of Tommy Hanson or Tim Hudson.

2012 Honorable Mention:  RA Dickey

Batter

Adam LaRoche – LaRoche was a known quantity coming into the season, with eight full seasons behind him. We could reliably expect  20 HRs and a 1.5-2.2 WAR over a full season.  Bill James forecasted 16 HRs and a 1.7 WAR for LaRoche’s 2012 campaign

Blowing away all predictions, LaRoche has filled in the offensive gaps caused by injuries to many key Nationals this year (Werth, Ramos, Morse).  He’s sporting a career year with 32 HRs, 3.2 war and an OBP over .830.  With his typically strong defense, he’s an easy bet to have his team option picked up by the Nationals.

The Nationals have benefitted from careers years in 2012, helping them become the NL East division leaders.  I wouldn’t bank on a repeated performance from LaRoche in 2013.  He’s 33 and with 8 prior seasons behind him, it’s unlikely he’s going to maintain his higher level of production.  He’s a useful 1B but not the elite level we’ve seen in 2012.

2012 Honorable Mentions: Michael Bourne, Jimmy Rollins, Jason Heyward, Giancarlo Stanton