MLB Opening Night is finally here, as the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers take on one another in a newly-minted AL West division battle. While one team will be battling for first with the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics, the other team will be looking to fend off another cellar-dwelling season. Let's take a look at tonight's matchup.
Projected Starters
Matt Harrison, Texas Rangers: 32 starts, 18-11, 213 IP, 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP
Harrison was lights out in his All-Star 2012 campaign. As you can see above, he approached 20 wins and possessed a stellar 3.29 ERA in 32 starts. Interestingly enough, Harrison was much better on the road than he was at home. While he only won 10-of-17 decisions away from Arlington, Harrison posted a 3.10 ERA and a miniscule 1.23 WHIP. Three of Houston's nine projected starters bat left handed. Accordingly, Harrison held opposing lefties to a .209 average, compared to .275 against righties. This is interesting considering that two of Houston's three lefties, Carlos Pena and Jason Castro, struggle against lefties.
Bud Norris, Houston Astros: 29 starts, 7-13, 168 IP, 4.65 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP
It goes without saying that Texas has the advantage here. While Harrison acted like an ace last season, Norris is nowhere near a top-of-the-rotation guy for a good team. The five-year pro struggled a great deal in 2012, losing 13 of his 20 decisions and giving up four earned runs or more in 41 percent of his starts. That being said, Norris was much better at home than he was away from Houson. He went 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA in 11 home starts, compared to 3-12 with a 6.94 in 18 road starts. So, it make sense to expect a decent performance out of the 28-year-old righty.
Difference Makers
The losses of Michael Young, Mike Napoli and Josh Hamilton really hurt this lineup. That being said, expect Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz to have success against a lackluster Astros' rotation in this series. Beltre is a career .253 hitter with niner homers and 32 RBIs in 50 games against Houston. He is batting .289 with five homers in 20 career games at Minute Maid Park. While Beltre hasn't faced Norris to date, he seems to have a huge matchup advantage here, as he does well against the variety of pitches that Norris throws.
On the other hand, Chris Carter is batting under .200 with three homers and five RBIs against the Rangers in his career. He has zero hits in seven at-bats against Harrison in his career and is batting 50 points lower away from his old stomping ground of O.Co in Oakland than he is at his former home. This doesn't bode well for the young power hitter. Carlos Pena, a former Rangers' prospect, is batting .223 with 12 homers and 34 RBIs in 53 starts against his former organization. He is, however, striking out at a ratio of once per three at-bats. Yet another bad sign for the Astros tonight, especially going up against someone like Harrison.
Prediction
While anyone would be hard pressed to say that Texas is the legit frontrunner to capture the AL West in 2013, it shouldn't have much of an issue going up against a talent-stricken Astros' team. In addition, the difference in terms of quality between these two starting pitchers is vast. I am going to go with 8-2 Texas in this one.