The calendar now turns to June and with it comes the countdown for baseball's rumor mill. We've started to slowly see the wheels slowly spin around rumors and teams starting to identify themselves more clearly as sellers or buyers. Some teams are guaranteed to be sellers given the state of the organization and future, while other teams could be pushed to sell if the season continues to spiral down.
Today, we'll take a look at six hitters who could be traded by the time the clock winds down and the July 31 MLB Trade Deadline passes. These six hitters are all encountering various levels of performance this season, with many of them in the midst of career years. It's great news for the potential sellers and could further inflate the number of interested teams and the return sellers receive.
Eric Hosmer, First Baseman, Kansas City Royals
One major theme for all trade deadline discussions and rankings of players available centers around the Royals. With numerous impending free agents. Hosmer might be the most likely to remain in Kansas City past the deadline if the organization attempts to try and extend him in the offseason, but for now he should certainly be available if teams come calling.
The season got off to a very rough start for Hosmer. In his first 71 plate appearances, the 27-year-old first baseman posted a .185/.254/.246 with a .500 OPS and 34 wRC+. While Hosmer didn't strike out much, the power output was next to nothing.
If that continued, it would have meant terrible news for Hosmer's contract demands. But he's turned things around at the plate since then with a .359/.405/.524 line, a .929 OPS and 150 wRC+. He is playing at an All Star caliber level.
As a result, it could be both a positive and negative for the Royals. If the last two months of hitting continue fairly consistently, Hosmer's price will be driven out of the team's price range. But that could also increase the chances of Hosmer being dealt and the hot hitting inflating his trade cost.
Zack Cozart, Shortstop, Cincinnati Reds
If you asked the average fan to name 10 of the best hitters statistically in baseball this season, it would likely take them several days before Cozart crossed their mind. Yet here is the 31-year-old shortstop in the midst of a career season in which he has the second-highest fWAR in baseball (3.1).
Cozart's defense is one thing in itself. In 416 innings at the position this season, Cozart has registered three defensive runs saved (DRS) and a 13.4 UZR/150 that ranks fourth amongst shortstops. Cozart carries value just on his defense alone and we haven't even got to his numbers at the plate this season.
At the plate is where Cozart's true breakout has come this season. In 213 plate appearances, he owns a .344/.432/.622 slash line and pairs it with a .439 wOBA and 173 wRC+. This isn't just a hot April either as Cozart's .344/.420/.594 line and 164 wRC+ in May, further demonstrate his excellence at the plate this season.
While the breakout has come out of nowhere to some degree, Cozart showed signs of a power bat previously. In 214 plate appearances during the 2015 season, Cozart hit five home runs and registered a 105 wRC+. What really stands out in Cozart's sudden breakout is his increased discipline at the plate.
Cozart entered the season with a career outside-zone swinging percentage over 30 percent, but this season his O-Zone% is just 26.2 percent. Meanwhile, his contact rates are up and his swinging strike percentage is down to 6.3 percent.
Given his age and the Reds continued efforts to transition to a youth movement, it seems a certainty that Cozart is moved. Multiple contenders across the majors need shortstop help and it could develop into a nice bidding war that nets Cincinnati a strong return.
Mike Moustakas, Third Baseman, Kansas City Royals
Another one of Kansas City's potential trade candidates, Moustakas could find multiple suitors interested in his services across the American League. While Moustakas 2017 season certainly hasn't been All Star caliber, the 28-year-old is still a solid contributor.
Moustakas' season got off to a strong start, even as Kansas City struggled. He registered a .271/.303/.553 slash line with a .359 wOBA and 124 wRC+. Paired with an .856 OPS and seven home runs in 89 plate appearances, it made for an ideal third baseman for teams in need at the hot corner.
Over his last 118 plate appearances, Moustakas numbers at the plate have dropped off. While the power largely remains with seven homers over that span, his .243/.288/.477 line reflects a hitter that should be closer to the bottom of a team's batting order.
But Moustakas' power should transition even better to a more hitter-friendly ballpark and slightly above-average defense at third base further increases his value. He's also a veteran with World Series experience, which would further appeal to contenders. Kansas City likely can't retain Moustakas this offseason, so now would be the time to move him.
Jed Lowrie, Second Base, Oakland Athletics
While Lowrie always seemed to be a trade candidate, even the A's couldn't have seen a season like this coming. The 33-year-old is having a career season and as a result, it could turn what would have been a minimal trade return into a much more sizable return.
Lowrie's .293 batting average, .360 on-base percentage, 132 wRC+ and .843 OPS would all be career bests for the shortstop. In an A's lineup that has been full of surprises and breakouts, Lowrie remains a constant in the third spot of their lineup.
His sudden breakthrough at 33 could be attributed to a dramatic increase in his hard-hit rate from 27.8 percent to 36.6 percent. Many of Lowrie's contact rates in and out of the zone show slight improvement, though nothing that screams as the major difference maker.
While Lowrie isn't known for his defense, he does offer a team the versatility to play both middle infield spots and can play third base. It gives a potential contender flexibility in how they put him in the lineup.
Lowrie may be due for some regression but his big year at the plate paired with his versatility will make him a coveted middle infielder on the trade market. Oakland should be selling in July and a Lowrie trade would further enhance an improving farm system.
Marcell Ozuna, Outfielder, Miami Marlins
After attempts to trade Ozuna in the offseason didn't yield the returns Miami sought, the organization decided to keep him in hopes he could have a career season and turn himself into a must-have option come trade season.
To this point, Ozuna surpassed even the grandest expectations Miami held. The 26-year-old seems to be just entering the prime of his career with a season line to this point that could earn him a few MVP votes. In 236 plate appearances thus far, Ozuna owns a .325/.390/.566 line with a .401 wOBA and 151 wRC+.
While power hitters typically carry some significant strikeout burden, Ozuna's 20.3 strikeout rate is around the league average and still under his career strikeout rate. To do that with the high batting lines and 14 home runs speaks to just how great Ozuna has performed at the plate this season.
Even when you look at Ozuna's .364 batting average on balls in play and expect regression, it shouldn't be so significant that Ozuna's batting average drops below .270. Ozuna's career BABIP is .323, so there's certainly reason to believe the young outfielder could sustain a high batting average over the remainder of the season.
Ozuna raised his hard-hit contact numbers and exit velocity this season, which paired with his increased zone swing percentage from 65.6 percent last season to 73.1 percent in 2017.
Miami's stadium is a pitcher-friendly park as well, which gives optimism for what Ozuna's numbers could be like if he player in a more hitter-friendly stadium. Ozuna can play any of the three outfield spots and while his defense is below average in center field, he is strong in the corners.
The Marlins farm system desperately needs help in the farm system, especially given they are viewed as having one of the worst minor league systems in baseball. An Ozuna trade could dramatically change that and give this team a brighter future that it needs.
J.D. Martinez, Outfielder, Detroit Tigers
If the Tigers sit outside the playoff picture come July, they could be one of the most fascinating sellers in the lead up to the trade deadline. One name who could reign supreme over all other candidates is Martinez, whose return from the disabled list has been MVP-like.
Martinez came off the disabled list on May 12 after he missed seven weeks of action with a lisfranc sprain in his right foot. Since that time, the 29-year-old's performance in the batter's box puts him amongst the superstar level.
Across 88 plate appearances, Martinez hit 10 home runs, 22 RBIs and a 2.201 OPS. The .292 batting average is strong, but the power and patience at the plate jumps off the page. Martinez has walked 18 times this season, which matches his number of strikeouts.
Everything you could ask a MVP-caliber power hitter to do, Martinez has done since his return from the disabled list. The biggest changes come in his fly ball rates and hard-hit numbers. Martinez's fly ball percentage jumped from 36.2 percent last season to 43.6 percent this year. Meanwhile, his hard-hit rate is at 56.9 percent and Martinez's 94.8 MPH average exit velocity is third best in the majors.
While a 41.7 percent HR/FB rate is due for major regression, Martinez has shown a more aggressive, power-focused approach at the plate. While the strikeout rate could be fairly high and the batting average will come down, Martinez's fly ball approach and ability to generate hard contact could lead to a 40-plus homer season.
Martinez would be coveted by a plethora of contenders and near contenders if Detroit makes him available. He could play either corner infield spot or be a designated hitter, bat from the cleanup spot. Martinez is a free agent in the offseason, which will hurt his trade value a bit, but he is a name to watch as July approaches and the Tigers season unfolds further.