In 2013 the National League Central Division proved to be the best division in baseball as three of the five teams made the playoffs. The division is the home of the National Leagues' top outfielder, and the second-best first baseman and starting pitcher, to go along with a former National League MVP winner and a recent top prospect first baseman.
These star players can lead thier respective teams to wins on the field and power your fantasy team to the top of your league.
Andrew McCutchen - Center Fielder, Pittsburg Pirates
McCutchen has been one of the most consistent player over his time in the majors. He has registered four-straight seasons of 154 or more games. Through those seasons he has also racked up double-digit homeruns and 20-plus steals in five straight seasons.
In 2013 “Cutch” was also clutch. He had 88 plate appearances deemed “high leverage” and in those he hit .348 while driving in 25 runs and swiping seven out of seven bags. McCutchen also drew 28 (nine intentional) of his 90 walks in these plate appearances which shows us just how feared a hitter he is.
The one place McCutchen’s value took a hit in 2013 was his homerun output. He saw his homerun per fly ball rate drop from 19.4-percent in 2012 to 12.4-percent in 2013. This led to his homerun output falling from 31 to 21. The power wasn’t completely lost however, as he did tally 38 doubles in 2013, nine more than 2012.
Something that may have contributed to McCutchen’s decrease in homerun output was his increased plate discipline. McCutchen lowered his strikeout rate from 19.6-percent in 2012 to 15-percent in 2013 and also increased his walk rate to 11.6-percent in 2013.
Given that his power wasn’t entirely lost and that his plate discipline increased from 2012, it is very hard to ding McCutchen even a little. McCutchen remains a solid top-five overall fantasy player for 2013 and is the premier player in the National League’s Central Division where he will stay for years to come.
Joey Votto - First baseman, Cincinnati Reds
Coming off left knee surgery in 2012, Votto played all 162 games for the Reds in 2013. Over Votto’s five full seasons (130+ games) in the majors he has posted over 20 homeruns, 92 runs scored, 91 runs batted in and eight steals. These numbers and his above-average defense make him the National League Central’s premier first baseman.
In 2013 Votto put up a disappointing 73 runs batted in, a sticking point for recent anti-Votto sentiment. A huge contributing factor in his low runs batted in total is his walk rate with runners in scoring position. Votto is such a fared hitter that opposing pitchers put him on base 26.4-percent of the time in 2013 with runners in scoring position, an increase of 5.2-percent over his career average.
Another factor contributing to Votto’s somewhat-decreased value is the loss of centerfielder Shin-Soo Choo. I actually see this as a potentially good thing for Votto and his fantasy owners as he should get to see more pitches in 2014 since there is one less bat in the lineup that can really hurt opposing teams.
I expect a bigger overall season from Votto in 2014, given that opposing teams go after him more than previous seasons due to the decreased offense around him. Even if that doesn’t come true, you can still mark him down for 20-plus homeruns, 85-plus runs scored and 70-plus runs batted in to go along with a handful of steals and a .300 batting average. Votto is signed through 2023 with the Reds so he will continue to dominate the National League Central for years to come.
Ryan Braun - Right Fielder, Milawaukee Brewers
Much like most baseball fans, Braun entered 2013 as one of my favorite players, and he existed 2013 as one of my least favorite. Braun only played in 61 games in 2013 before being suspended for the remainder of the year. Getting away from the steroids and lies, Braun has put up some simply amazing numbers over his seven seasons in the majors.
Before the suspension shortened season, Braun had put up five straight 150 game seasons. In every season in the majors excluding 2010 (25 homerun), Braun has topped the 30 homerun plateau to go along with four seasons of 100-plus runs scored and five seasons of 100-plus runs batted in. To go along with his power, Braun has also helped his team and fantasy owners on the base paths, swiping 130 bases in his 944 career games.
Given his now-known history of performance enhancing drug use, it is going to be very difficult to accurately project Braun, as it is really impossible to quantify the impact steroid use has on a player. One could surmise that his consistent health may falter more than his power numbers. If that proves true and Braun is really more injury prone than in the past, that would hurt his value more than a decrease in power.
The question marks will be there until we actually see Braun on the field, the only place where speculation can be proven either right or wrong. Even with steroids it is hard and damn well near impossible to deny that Braun possess the skill to be a top flight outfielder in both real life and in fantasy.
If the now-31 year old Braun can stay on the field and play every day like he has in the past, he will push McCutchen for the title of top National League Central outfielder and may prove to be a fantasy steal even in the second round in 2014.
Adam Wainwright - Pitcher, St. Louis Cardinals
After turning in a disappointing 2012 season, Wainwright came back with vengeance. The six foot seven inch right-hander hurled 241.2 innings of sub-three earned run baseball in 2013, striking out over eight batters and walking just over one per nine innings. Those are powerful and dominating numbers to put up for a 32 year old starter.
One thing aiding Wainwright to his third career 19-plus win season was an above average Cardinals' offense and his propensity to go deep into games. Wainwright went 7-plus innings in 26 of his 34 starts, including 5 complete games.
There is nothing in Wainwright’s track record or 2013 numbers that points to a decline in his skills. With that said it won’t be easy for him to repeat the sparkling statistics he was able to put up in 2013. Wainwright is the most dominating and dependable starting pitcher in the National League Central, a place where he will stay through the 2018 season if not longer.
Anthony Rizzo - First baseman, Chicago Cubs
Last season was a real disappointment for Rizzo, the Cubs, and ultimately anyone who selected him on draft day. Given that, it was just his first season in the majors and he’s still just a pup at 24 years old. Even with the unsatisfactory results I’m still confident in anointing him as the best player on the Cubs, which could be taken in two different ways. Either the Cubs are just that bad or that Rizzo has the potential to be an above-average major leaguer. In the end, it is really a mixture of both as the Cubs are in the process of rebuilding.
Rizzo’s minor league track record shows us that he has the capability of hitting 25-plus homeruns while batting for a solid .250-plus average. When digging through Rizzo’s batted ball numbers his .258 average on balls batted in play really stands out as it lies at a below-average rate. This rate can be expected to increase given a little better luck and a strengthening of his ability to hit left-handed pitching, as he only hit a meager .189 against land handed pitching in 2013.
I’m confident that Rizzo can improve his numbers across the board in his second full season in the majors. The influx of help from the minors the Cubs will see in 2014 won’t hurt his overall statistical line either, as the Cubs are poised to add Javier Baez, Jorge Soler and potentially Kris Bryant to their lineup in 2014.
Even after being the best division in Major League Baseball last season, the National League Central is in position to get even stronger in 2014. It will be fun to see how this division shakes out over the course of the season and to see which one of these fantasy studs can lead their team to the Central Division crown.