It is hard to believe that we’re already a month and a half into the baseball season.  Statistics are starting to stabilize and trends are starting to become more easily recognized.  This list will be based upon who have been the most detrimental players in fantasy baseball over the first leg of the season.

Some of the players who make the list are somewhat surprising, as there is a defending Cy Young winner and a perennial MVP candidate. The blurbs after their name will describe how things are looking for the rest of the season for the player. Whether it be bad luck or just a decrease in skills, I used advanced statistical analyses to try and diagnose the problems these players are having as well as giving a forecast into the future.
 

1. Ryan Vogelsong  - SP - San Francisco Giants (Season: 2.1 ; L15: -5.0)

Vogelsong tops our list of the coldest fantasy baseball players.  The 35-year old veteran has allowed an opponent’s batting average of .315.  He has also allowed a league-high mark of 34 earned runs. Although Vogelsong’s K/BB ratio is a decent 2.5, he has allowed a putrid 12.1 hits/nine innings.  Vogelsong can’t continue to be this terrible, right? His ERA currently stands at a league-high 7.78, but expect him to eventually come back down to a number closer to his career average of 4.53.
 

2. Mark Buehrle  - SP - Toronto Blue Jays (Season: 2.7 ; L15: -2.0)

Second on our list and especially horrible in three of his last four starts, is Mark Buehrle.  Before saturday night’s impressive outing against Boston, Buehrle had allowed 17 earned runs in his previous three starts. Most of Buehrle’s numbers are in line with his career averages, except for the fact that he is allowing 2.4 HRs per nine innings.  This atrocious figure has led to an ERA of 7.02. Buehrle will likely improve a little more as the season moves along, but his numbers are making fans and analysts question how much gas the 14-year veteran has left in the tank.

3. B.J. Upton  - OF - Atlanta Braves (Season: 0.5 ; L15: -0.1)

Upton was expected to be an impact free agent acquisition this past off-season and that should come as no surprise to anyone. Upton has improved his HR-rate each season and although he is only a career .252 hitter, no one expected to see what we have seen from him this year. Upton has not been very lucky, as his Batting Average On Balls in Play, or BABIP (which is a statistic used to figure out if the balls put in play by the hitter are finding holes or not), is a mere .243. This is over 110-points below his career average and well below the league average. Upton has also posted a career-high K-rate of 32.8%.  Upton is too good of a player to continue batting .153, but how long will it take for him to rebound? Upton has only drawn 13 BBs and has also been caught stealing on 50% of his attempts.  The ball has not been bouncing his way, but look for him to turn it around.

4. Jeff Keppinger  - SP - Washington Nationals (Season: 0.9  ; L15: 0.1)

Keppinger puts the ball in play as well as just about any player in the majors. He posted a 91% contact rate in 2011 and has a career contact rate of 87.1%. These are very high numbers, but they also mean that Keppinger does not walk or strike out very much. It’s almost baffling to look at this numbers for the current season. Keppinger has not drawn a walk yet in 117 plate appearances.  He also has not hit a HR. Although Keppinger has never been known for his power, it is befuddling to look at Keppinger’s statistics.  A lot of red flags come up, but Keppinger has also posted a career low BABIP, so do expect the bounces to go his way a little more as the season moves forward, just simply due to the law of averages.

5. Adam Dunn  - 1B - Chicago White Sox (Season: 1.0 ; L15: 1.5)

Adam Dunn’s poor numbers have been a mixture of him coming to the end of his career and some very bad luck.  Dunn’s BABIP is just .225, which is 137-points lower than his career average. Unfortunately for fantasy owners who still have Dunn on their team (only 29% of ESPN owners), his K-rate is right near his averages for the past few seasons and owners should only expect a small uptick in walks.  Dunn’s power outage is another story in itself. In 2011, Dunn’s HR-rate was only 2.2%, and although it has not fallen to that point this year, Dunn only has 6 dingers to go along with his .142 average.
 

6. Josh Hamilton  - OF - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Season: 1.1 ; L15: 0.8)

Not many would have predicted Josh Hamilton’s placement on this list before the season, but oh how the mighty fall. Last season, Hamilton had a career-high K-rate of 25.5%, but it was mostly forgiven because he had good luck with a good BABIP and also hit .285 with 43 home runs. Hamilton isn’t being forgiven right now though, because his K-rate has risen 2%, but his home run percentage is at a career-low level (2.58%). Typically players who have a very high K-rate only have that number because they are being aggressive and swinging for the fences a lot, and while Hamilton may be swinging for the fences, he is not connecting. Hamilton is also not being patient at the plate and has had a rough start to the season, batting only .206.

7. R.A. Dickey  - SP - Toronto Blue Jays (Season: 7.3  ; L15: 6.0)

Another surprise name on this list, defending NL Cy Young award winner, R.A. Dickey.  The knuckleballer has been the epitome of inconsistency so far this season. Dickey has allowed 16 earned runs over the course of his last four starts. Dickey is 2-5 with a 5.06 ERA, but I would urge fantasy owners to hold out as he will likely get back to being a respectable starter. Still, owners have been burned by this player who was chosen at an average spot of 8th overall in ESPN fantasy drafts. Dickey was not a well-known pitcher until 2010-2012, when he averaged 2.2, 2.3 and 2.1 walks per nine innings respectively. Key stat for Dickey is that before that stretch of seasons he was consistently walking over 4 per nine inning, which consequently led to 4.5+ ERAs.  This season Dickey has walked 4.2 per 9. If he can get his control back, he will improve.
 

8. Rickie Weeks  - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers (Season: 1.3 ; L15: 1.7)

Weeks has had his fair share of bad luck this season with a low BABIP, but he also has himself to blame as he is striking out at a career-high rate (29%) and his contact-rate is the lowest of his 10-year major league career (57.1%). Weeks is hitting well below his career average of .249, but his HR-rate is also at a career low.  Weeks will likely come out of his current slump and power-outage, but he may never be the player everyone thought he could be when he was drafted second overall in the 2003 amateur draft.

9. Will Middlebrooks  - 3B - Boston Red Sox (Season: 1.4 ; L15: 1.3)

Middlebrooks is in his first full season as a major league starter for the Red Sox, so he gets a little more slack than some of the others on the list. It also makes it more difficult to project his future though. In 75 games last season, Middlebrooks hit a respectable .288, but was helped by a good BABIP of .391.  Middlebrooks is a young player and like many other young players, he has not been very consistent. Middlebrooks has shown flashes of greatness, including a three home run effort against Toronto in early April. I expect some real improvement from Middlebrooks throughout the rest of the season.

10. Victor Martinez  - C - Detroit Tigers (Season: 1.7 ; L15: 2.4)

Martinez has been a very consistent hitter throughout his 11 years in the big leagues, batting .301 for his career.  Many thought that Martinez would be a major help to the Detroit lineup after he missed the majority of the 2012 season due to injury.  So far, however, Martinez has seemingly not been able to bounce back to form, batting a lowly .218. Interestingly, Martinez’s numbers all line up with his career numbers and his numbers from the past few seasons. There are two trains of thought in trying to decide what is going on with Martinez: 1.) It seems that Martinez is playing just like he has over his past few healthy seasons, but he just hasn’t been finding holes. This is evidenced by his BABIP being 100-points below his career average. Martinez has a great chance to turn things around as his hits will eventually start falling. or 2.) He isn’t comfortable yet recovering from his injury and thus he has not been hitting the ball as hard (under 1% HR-rate). Either way, Martinez is a solid option at catcher moving forward, but just monitor his pop.