As the Major League Baseball’s offseason enters January, most significant player transactions are complete and rosters largely settled for the 2013 season. Through January, we’ll feature the contenders in both the National and American Leagues, assessing their offseason efforts to address their 2013 roster needs. We’ll look back at how each team’s 2012 season ended with an eye on the updates and upgrades required to compete in 2013, how they’ve fared through the offseason and what the team looks like as we approach spring training.
We’re looking at the National League, with today’s focus being the 2012 Wild Card Play-In game participants, Atlanta Braves.
Braves' 2012 Offseason Requirements
The Atlanta Braves were well positioned to advance through the 2012 wild card play-in game, as the one-game matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals was in Atlanta, with the Braves starting their red-hot ace Kris Medlen. The Braves lost the game through a combination of bad umpiring and poor defence. The 2012 offseason represented a time of great roster change, with 19-year veteran Chipper Jones retiring and leaving a large hole at third base. Star centerfielder Michael Bourne was scheduled for free agency and was unlikely to accept a Braves’ qualifying offer.
Between the anticipated departures of Jones and Bourne, general manager Frank Wren had a considerable offseason task in front of him. The front office would need to fill both left field and centerfield positions, with 2012 leftfielder Martin Prado moving to third base to cover Jones’ departure.
Offseason Transaction Recap
Bourne quickly rejected the Braves’ qualifying offer and remains a free agent seeking a lucrative multi-year deal. Wren countered, signing Tampa Bay Rays centerfielder BJ Upton to a five year, $75M deal. Upton, 28, will average $15M annually through the deal that takes him to his year 33 season. He’s changed his game considerably through his six major league seasons, ditching much of his early-career plate disc line (16-19% O-Swing% between 2004 and 2007, 32% in 2008) to take a more aggressive plate approach that has enabled him to increase his power (from a low of .132 isolated power in 2007, to .208 ISO in 2012). He’s a plus defender and there’s good reason to think Upton can still improve his game in the next two or three seasons. He’ll likely provide solid value on his contract, but for an Atlanta club that is increasingly hamstrung as a small market franchise, it leaves Wren little room for error with the rest of his roster.
Useful backup catcher David Ross opted for free agency, netting a two-year deal with the Boston Red Sox. While Ross’s 2012 performance will missed, Atlanta is expecting greater 2013 production from start catcher Brian McCann, as he recovers from knee injuries. In Ross’s place, Wren signed journeyman catcher Gerald Laird to a two year deal.
In 2012, Atlanta witnessed a disappointing performance by star pitcher Tommy Hanson. As the season drew to a close, it was evident that Hanson had lingering elbow issues that could result in a long-term disabled list stint. With excess starting pitching on hand, Wren traded Hanson to the Los Angeles Angels for a high-leverage, late-inning power arm in Jordan Walden. Walden is a high-effort, two-pitch (fastball and slider) right-handed RP that generates strong whiff rates (11.08 K/9 in 39 innings). He does have problem with issuing walks (more than 4 BB allowed per 9 innings). While there’s a high likelihood that the high-effort Walden will face elbow issues as innings mount on his arm, he’s just entering his arbitration years and the Braves will happily go year-to-year with him for the next two years. Walden provides the Braves an impact arm for late innings alongside bullpen stars Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters.
With Prado moving back to third base for 2013, the Braves are still searching for a left field replacement for the retired Chipper Jones. This should be a relatively easy replacement as the Braves line-up is stocked with productive hitters. A replacement-level player available at the conclusion of the offseason should suffice.
2012 Offseason Report Card and Look Forward to 2013
Wren and the Braves’ front office has acted decisively to address their center field needs by acquiring Upton on a long-term contract. However, as the offseason’s center field market has shaped up, there’s been more fleet-footed outfielders (Upton, Bourne, Shane Victorino, Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan) on the market than available spots. The cost-conscious Braves may have waited the game of musical chairs to acquire the last man standing (Bourne) at a price below the cost of their Upton contract.
Walden represents a low-risk, low-cost addition to the Braves bullpen and the cost (Hanson) had clear warning signs attached as 2013 approached. With a stocked rotation, there was no place for the arb-eligible Hanson. Walden joins a power-armed bullpen that provides manager Fredi Gonzalez plenty of late-inning options.
With catcher Brian McCann squarely facing free agency in 2013, the looming question for the Braves organization is how to handle a potential long-term contract for star outfielder Jason Heyward. Heyward, 23, posted superstar numbers in 2012 (117 OPS+). Heyward is first-time arbitration eligible in 2013 and the Braves would be wise to ink their rising star to a long-term deal in advance. Early indications have a five to seven year contract being valued at $15-$17M per season.
The Braves adeptly addressed their primary offseason needs, leftfield still outstanding. They deserve a B+ mark for their offseason efforts. Built on pitching, defense and a solid core of young position players, they’re well positioned to challenge the Nationals for the 2013 NL East Championship.