The San Diego Padres have hit it big once again at the MLB Trade Deadline as they continue to sell off pieces to contenders. The Padres have agreed to trade Andrew Cashner, Colin Rea and Tayron Guerrero to the Miami Marlins in exchange for prospects Josh Naylor, Luis Castillo and major-league players Jarred Cosart and Carter Capps.
For Miami, this move was all about adding to their rotation and hopefully stocking up so they can contend for the playoffs this season as they sit just five games back of the N.L. East-leading Washington Nationals and hold the second wild card spot.
Cashner will step into the Marlins' rotation immediately and be on a contender for the first time since he was a rookie relief pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds in 2010. This season, Cashner has registered a 4.76 ERA, 7.60 K/9 and a 1.39 WHIP. Cashner has gone into the seventh inning just once this year, likely the cause of San Diego trying to play it safe with a starter who has dealt with numerous injuries in his career.
While Miami will hope that a fresh start and a competitive environment can yield better results from Cashner, his 4.51 xFIP and 0.2 Wins Above Replacement this season are a greater indicator that he is just a slightly above replacement level starter. He is also an impending free agent this offseason and will not qualify for draft-pick compensation if he walks in free agency.
The Marlins also acquire Rea, who holds a 4.76 ERA, a 6.89 K/9 and 1/73 K/BB rate across 19 appearances (18 starts). The 26-year-old righty entered the season with just 30 major-league innings to his name and was regarded as a top-five prospect in the Padres' farm system by FanGraphs and Minor League Baseball. He was regarded as a pitcher who knows how to pitch to his spots in the zone and command his pitches well, but after 131 innings in the majors between last season and now, the Padres decided his 3.0-plus BB/9 in addition to other concerns, was enough sample to trade him away.
Rea may not be ready to slide into a major-league rotation for a contender, but Miami grew desperate after Wei-Yin Chen was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a left elbow strain.
Miami also acquired a flame-throwing reliever in Guerrero, who has struck out 36 batters across 35 2/3 innings in the minors this season, though command remains a major issue for him. Across those 35 2/3 innings, Guerrero has allowed 21 earned runs, 32 hits and 19 walks. The 25-year-old righty isn't major-league ready, but he has the velocity that team's love to try and work with and develop into a lights-out reliever.
Of course, this all came at a cost for Miami. In what had already been a seller's market where teams are tearing apart their farm systems to find upgrades, the Marlins gave up an overwhelming amount.
San Diego will acquire first base prospect Josh Naylor, who was the 12th overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft. Naylor was the top-rated prospect in the Marlins' farm system and made Baseball America's mid-season Top 100 prospects list. He offers what many teams drool over, a left-handed power bat that is cost-controlled. This season in A-Ball, the 19-year-old has slugged nine home runs and 24 doubles across 342 at bats. Naylor has also showcased some speed on the basepaths with 10 stolen bases and has only been caught three times.
The Padres also acquired Castillo, who was ranked as the Marlins' fifth-best prospect by MLB.com in their mid-season update. Castillo brings the upper-90s fastball that teams love, especially when it can occasionaly get into triple digits. MLB.com graded his fastball as a 70 on the 20-80 scale, a testament to just how good it is. Of course, he does need other pitches and that's where his slider comes in. It still needs a lot of refinement, but the 23-year-old still has time as he works to improve on it in High-A.
This season for High-A Jupiter, Castillo has registered an exceptional 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across 18 starts with an 84/15 K/BB line in 100 2/3 innings pitched. It's possible the Padres could determine upon acquiring him, that Castillo is ready for the jump to Double-A.
Capps is one of the more intriguing names in this deal. He is out for the season after he had Tommy John surgery in March, which means he will also likely miss half of the 2017 season, but there is a lot to like.
Before he tore his UCL, Capps was in contention to win the closer's job in Miami over A.J. Ramos. Across 31 innings as a reliever in 2015, Capps registered a ludicrous 16.84 K/9 rate with a 1.10 FIP and 90.9 left on base percentage. He was one of the best relievers in baseball and if there are no complications and no stuff is lost in his return from TJS, San Diego hopes he could return to something close to that level. If he does, we could be talking about him as a major trade chip over a year from now and San Diego can further add to its farm system.
Lastly, San Diego also acquired Cosart, the former top pitching prospect whose career has unraveled. Cosart entered the season as a member of Miami's rotation, but quickly found himself in Triple-A after he allowed 13 earned runs across three starts. Upon his arrival in Triple-A, Cosart continued to face struggles as he had a 4.09 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and had an ugly 30/25 K/BB ratio across 50 2/3 innings.
Cosart is still just 26, so there may be some who hope a fresh start in a low-pressure environment can help him turn things around, but his future as a major-league starter looks bleak. But for a Padres' team with rotation spots to fill after numerous trades, he'll be a starter for now. He should remain off the fantasy radar in all fantasy leagues.
Overall, the Padres turned an below average starting pitcher who would have left in free agency and a young, righty pitcher who just wasn't working for them into further depth and talent injected into their farm system and a reliever who could turn into an excellent trade chip a year from now if he has a healthy return from TJS. This was another home-run trade for the Padres as their rebuild continues.