The NL Central is a division filled to the brim fantasy ledgens and up and coming fantasy stars, as with anything though there are a few bad eggs in the bunch.
Jean Segura, Shortstop, Milwaukee, Brewers
After a torrid beginning to his first full major league season, Segura cooled off considerably. In draft rooms everywhere Segura is currently being taken as the fourth shortstop with an average draft position of 41. Luckily you have me here to throw some cold water on everyones overheated hype.
Here is a breakdown of his first two months versus his last four months of action.
April and May
.354 Batting Average (74 for 209) 8 Homeruns 15 for 17 Stolen Bases
Rest of Season
.261 batting average (99 for 379) 4 Homeruns 29 for 40 Stolen Bases
As you can see his numbers dramatically dropped off. This could be due to the league figuring him out, a nagging hamstring injury or could possibly be contributed to the Brewers lineup missing Ryan Braun. The drop off may also be contributed to a leveling out of his performance with the end result being the player that he is and will be.
While pondering the ladder, it should be known Segura only hit 24 homeruns in 1,598 career minor league plate appearance over his five season there. That is an average of 9 homeruns for every 600 plate appearances. The 12 homeruns he smashed in 2013 in the majors comes off as extremely fluky to me since he wasn’t able to produce those numbers in the minors.
Judging by his minor league numbers, we can disprove his capability of repeating his homerun numbers which his draft position is extremely reliant upon. If you remove his double digit homerun capacity he becomes an almost identical mold of Everth Cabrera who is being taken 78 picks later.
Since it is difficult to quantify a drop in batting average, power, and speed totals due to a player not being in the lineup or to know how long an injury was effecting a players preformance, we have to rely on previous data. In Segura’s case, his previous data is almost entirely from his time spent in Double-A ball or lower where players typically post numbers far better than what they can do at the major league level. It is very difficult to see how Segura was able to do it unless he took a magical pill Braun had left behind, I can't bring myself to predict him reaching a double digit total in homeruns again.
Brandon Phillips, Second Base, Cincinnati Reds
Since joining the Reds, Phillips has been the picture of consistency, playing in over 140 games in each of his eight seasons in Cincinnati. Phillips is now entering his age 33 season in 2014 and will now be six seasons removed from his 30 homerun, 30 steal season and four seasons removed from his last 20 homerun 20 steal season.
Even though he hasn’t met those plateaus in years it seems that fantasy owners still want to dream that it is possible. When you mix those lofty goals with the hyperinflation of the second base market due to the shortage of talent, it forms the recipe for a sever letdown.
When dreaming of Phillips’s 103 runs batted in from last year, one must remember Shin-Soo Choo and his .400+ on base percentage are now in Texas. This doesn’t just kill all the at bats Phillips had with runners on base but it also means he could move to the number two hole in the Reds lineup.
Usually I would say, where there is risk, there is also reward. In this case you’re just going to be paying too much in an auction draft or spending too high of a pick to land Phillips to extract any significant reward.
At the end of the day you have to ask yourself, why draft Phillips and his declining skill set around pick #120 when you could wait and grab someone statistically comparable such as Neil Walker nearly 130 picks later. Check out how they matchup below.
Brandon Phillips, Pick 120
2013 Stat Line: .261BA .310OBP 18Homeruns 80Runs 103RBI 5 Stolen Bases
2014 Projection: .269BA .334OBP 15Homeruns 78Runs 78RBI 8 Stolen Bases
Neil Walker, Pick 250
2013 Stat Line: .251BA .339OBP 16Homeruns 62Runs 53RBI 1 Stolen Base
2014 Projection: .267BA .366OBP 14Homeruns 68Runs 64RBI 3 Stolen Bases
Yes with Walker you’re going to take a hit in runs and runs batted in, but those are categories you can beef up with the picks you’ll have saved.
Jason Grilli, Relief Pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates
In 2014, Grilli will be entering his age 37 season and second season as the Pirates closer. Grilli’s story is truly awesome as he seemingly came back from the dead in 2012 when he joined Pittsburg. While in Pittsburg he quickly found his way into the closers after going exclusively to a fastball and slider repertoire.
My issue with Grilli isn’t his ability on the field but is more with his health. We received a taste of the injury bug in 2013 as he was forced to sit out the entire month of August with a forearm strain. Once Grilli came back from the injury and was 100% healthy, he wasn’t automatically handed back the keys to the ninth inning.
It wasn’t until Mark Melancon blew a few saves that he took the role back near the end of the regular season. If injury happens to strike Grilli again in 2014, I don’t believe he will be as lucky. Melancon had been lights out until the three blown saves in late September.
Currently Grilli is the 15th reliever being taken in draft with an average draft position of 130. At that position he is going ahead of Steven Cishek, Jonathan Papelbon, Grant Balfour and Addison Reed who are much safer bets to maintain their hold on the closers role all season.
Oscar Taveras Outfield, St. Louis Cardinals
There aren’t many concerns about this nearly 22 year old top prospect. Though the one concern is the main reason why he will be a disappointment for fantasy owners in 2014. That concern is his health. Taveras has dealt with some major injuries over his four seasons as a professional in the minor leagues. An ankle injury being the worst and that held him to only 46 games at Triple-A in 2013.
Taveras also has some roadblocks of a different kind in his path to major league playing time and they come in the form of Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos. With Jay still providing serviceable play and Bourjos providing excellent defense and speed on the bases, the Cardinals have every reason to take their time with Taveras.
The Cardinals will probably chose to hold Taveras at Triple-A for more seasoning, unless both Jay and Bourjos prove completely incompetent of holding down centerfield. Taveras remains a great pick in dynasty formats or deeper keeper leagues, but temptations should be tampered in 10 to 12 team redraft leagues.
Travis Wood, Starting Pitcher, Chicago Cubs
If you’re in a standard issue 10 or 12 team league Wood probably won’t be on your radar draft day, but much like last year owners will be looking to use in as a streaming option. In 2013 Wood posted a 3.11 earned run average while only striking out 17.5% of the batters he face over 200 innings pitched. These were great numbers for a pitcher who rarely ever tops 90mph on the radar gun.
Looking through his underlying numbers one can draw the conclusion the Wood got by in 2013 by using some smoke and mirrors, aka deception and great command. Due to Wood having to rely on the margins when things go bad they can go bad very quickly and easily.
Wood also seemed to be figured out some down the stretch as his earned run average ballooned to 3.61 in his 77+ second half innings from a 2.79 over his 122+ first half innings. Due to his already uninspiring strikeout numbers, the closer his earned run average gets to 4.00 the less his marginal fantasy value will become.
Even though he is still relatively young, 27 years old, it is tough to see his numbers every getting close to those that he put up in 2013 since he has a very limited ceiling due to his limited “stuff”. Pitching in Wrigley field doesn’t do him any favors either as he held a 0.69 higher earned run average there in 2013 than on the road.
Wood is currently being taken as the 83rd starting pitcher and 320th overall in drafts. If your draft goes this deep taking a shot on prospects such as Noah Syndergaard, Archie Bradley, Yordano Ventura, Kevin Gausman or Jameson Taillon is a much better choice, even if they begin the season in the minors.