We're roughly six weeks into the 2017 season and it's certainly been a fun one for baseball. But with so much attention focused on what is going on at the major-league level, looking at hot and cold pitchers and hitters, the minor leagues often receive less attention. But fans want to get excited about the future and get an idea of how the stars of tomorrow are performing.
So, every two weeks we'll take a look at how some of the top prospects in the minor leagues are performing and what it could mean for potential appearances in 2017, along with the prospect's long-term future. It won't all be hot starts, but it will provide a nice look at names to keep an eye on in the minor leagues.
After examining a few of the top hitting prospects, let's take a look at some of the top pitching prospects and how they've performed so far this season.
Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros
MLB.com Rank: 17th Baseball America Rank: 17th
'17 Stats: 5 GS, 19 IP, 20/19 K/BB, 5.68 ERA
The Houston Astros pitching has really clicked this season and it's a big reason why the team holds the best record in baseball. Which is good news, since it seems clear Martes is far from ready to pitch against major league hitters.
Martes began this season at Triple-A Fresno, his first taste of Triple-A competition. He certainly earned the promotion after he posted a 9.41 K/9 and registered a 2.73 FIP in 125 1/3 innings pitched at the Double-A level.
Now in Fresno, the 21-year-old's wildness on the mound has kept him from working deep into games. In five starts this season, Martes pitched past the fourth inning just twice and both came in his first two starts of the year.
Martes is currently walking a batter per inning, matching his strikeout rate. Of the 532 pitches the young righty has thrown on the year that weren't hit, 33.1 percent of them were called balls. It leads to deep counts and 20-plus pitch innings that keep him from working even into the middle innings.
Houston originally had initial plans to call up Martes this year and give him some opportunities to start, but that seems out of the question right now. General Manager Jeff Luhnow is still optimistic about Martes pitching this season and continues to show faith in the 21-year-old, but Martes major-league debut may now come much later in the season and out of the bullpen.
His future remains bright and the electric stuff that helped him excel in Double-A last season and strike out a batter per inning this season stand out, but he will certainly need more time as one of the youngest pitchers in Triple-A to catch up to the competition and show improved command. If Houston looks to acquire another ace at the trade deadline, Martes could be the center piece in a deal sent to the rebuilding team.
Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB.com Rank: 41st Baseball America Rank: 18th
'17 Stats: 8 GS, 40 IP, 39/8 K/BB, 2.93 ERA
The Pirates organization carries a great track record when it comes to pitchers. From the major leagues where young reclamation projects and veterans are tweaked into major contributors to their scouting department and minor league coaching ability to spot and develop raw pitching prospects. They are doing it once again with Keller, a lesser-known high school prospect in 2014, who is developing into one of the best young arms in the minor leagues.
Keller spent much of the 2016 season in Low-A, where he dominated the competition to the tune of a 9.48 K/9 rate, 2.46 ERA and a 23.2 K-BB%. Pittsburgh played things fairly cautiously and kept him there for most of the season, but he did eventually earn a call up and looked outstanding in his High-A debut with six shutout innings and seven strikeouts. The young righty showed the organization more than enough evidence he was ready for a full run in High-A in 2017.
Sure enough, that's where Keller's season has started. Much like Keller showed great success in Low-A, he has proved himself once again at the next level. In eight starts this season, Keller continues to show outstanding command of his pitches and a knowledge for the zone. With an average of just one walk per start, the 21-year-old is avoiding the common issue of allowing free base runners that you see with many young hurlers in the minor leagues at his age.
One number that stands out this season is the amount of ground balls Keller has generated. Over the past two years, Keller's ground ball rate sat in the low 40s, but it has jumped up to 54.4 percent this season, while opposing batters are hitting significantly fewer line drives off him. Meanwhile, the biggest negative that has gone against Keller's favor is the major change in his HR/FB rate rising from three percent in 2016 to 12.9 percent this season. 12.9 percent isn't a major issue as his HR/9 is just 0.9, but it could also reflect that a little regression will come in that number.
Keller's most recent started ended rather quickly. After 18 consecutive shutout innings heading into the outing Keller allowed two hits, including a home run, and a walk with one strikeout to and faced six batters. The team pulled him from the game after that inning with back tightness. The injury could help explain the poor outing and while no updates have been announced yet, this hopefully is just a minor injury and should not keep him out for extended time.
Fans should expect Keller to see a similar plan that the team operated under last season, keeping Keller at the same level for around 20 starts and then promoting him if the numbers remain consistent. Pittsburgh is in no dire need for pitching, especially as young as Keller, so it can take its time developing him and demonstrating consistent success at every level. If this keeps up, Keller should be a consensus top-20 prospect by season's end.
Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
MLB.com Rank: 26th Baseball America Rank: 22nd
'17 Stats: 8 GS, 45 2/3 IP, 59/10 K/BB, 3.35 ERA (Between Double-A and Triple-A)
Few organizations in baseball are as good as the Rays at developing young pitchers. It's not just because they operate on a lower budget that they deal so many away, the team just seems to have a constant stream of pitchers ready to step up into the major-league rotation when the Rays open the door for one of them. It's a certainty that one of Tampa Bay's current rotation arms will be traded by July 31. When it happens, Honeywell could be the man who gets the call and slides into the vacant rotation spot.
Due to a loaded rotation at Triple-A Durham, Honeywell started the year in Double-A. What could have been seen as a disappointment or put down after he already crushed Double-A competition, Honeywell took it as an opportunity to further display his superiority over the level. All it took was two starts, in that time Honeywell surrendered just eight base runners across 13 innings pitched and struck out 20 batters.
Now in Durham, the 22-year-old is experiencing the typical ups and downs for a youngster against a higher level of competition. His first three starts, especially his third against the Blue Jays Triple-A affiliate, proved to be the toughest outings for him. Across 15 1/3 innings pitched, he allowed 15 hits, three home runs, three walks and allowed 10 earned runs. With a 5.67 ERA, things were rough to start out and he wasn't missing many bats.
But Honeywell's last three starts have demonstrated a pitcher that can make adjustments and learn to adapt to the new level. In 17 1/3 innings pitched, Honeywell has allowed 21 hits but only four runs allowed and is missing far more bats with a 25/4 K/BB ratio. A majority of hits are coming in the later innings when he starts to face the top of the lineup for the third time, so it's a natural learning process for the righty.
Fantasy owners and Rays fans should get excited about the opportunity to watch Honeywell pitch this season. He's got good swing-and-miss stuff, solid command and offers a pitch that many don't see often. Honeywell is well-known for his screwball, a pitch few major-league hitters have seen in several years. When he comes up and stays for good, Honeywell should frustrate hitters with his immense repertoire of pitches and become a strong mid-rotation starter in the future.
Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB.com Rank: 42nd Baseball America Rank: 26th
'17 Stats: 6 G, 21 2/3 IP, 22/13 K/BB, 5.82 ERA
One of the top international signings in 2015, Yadier Alvarez ripped opposing hitters to shreds as a 20-year-old when he made his professional debut last season. The Dodgers hoped Alvarez could develop into their next international signee turned elite prospect.
Los Angeles initially tested him in Rookie ball and quickly elevated him after he humiliated Rookie-level hitters with 26 strikeouts and just four runs allowed in 20 innings. After five starts, the team promoted him to Low-A and he again dominated. Across nine starts, Alvarez struck out 55 batters and allowed just 31 hits in 39 1/3 innings pitched. After the outstanding debut, Alvarez skyrocketed up many lists as a top-50 prospect.
This season, the Dodgers presented Alvarez with a challenge. The 21-year-old is in the midst of his first season in High-A and the results have been mixed. While the strikeouts are still there with a 9.14 K/9 rate, his command is more erratic than before.
Over 30 percent of pitches thrown by Alvarez have been called a ball, meanwhile his WHIP is up to 1.71 and his K-BB% is down to 9.2 percent. It's also been a progressive problem for him, with nine of the 14 walks allowed coming in his last three starts.
There is good news though, reason to believe we see some of Alvarez's numbers sink sharply in the next few months. A .376 batting average on balls in play allowed in addition to a 64.6 left on base percentage are uncharacteristically high and should drop over the coming weeks. Meanwhile, his 4.20 FIP indicates some more bad luck and his HR/9 is still outstanding at 0.42.
Command will remain a question, but Alvarez has the raw stuff that could turn him into an ace with outstanding strikeout ability. There's a major variance in outcomes for Alvarez, but the Dodgers have a good track record and can give Alvarez time.
A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics
MLB.com Rank: 61st Baseball America Rank: 79th
'17 Stats: 9 G (6 GS), 34 1/3 IP, 54/12 K/BB, 4.19 ERA
A quick glance at Puk's ERA and mixed appearances between the bullpen and rotation. It's understandable, under normal circumstances those numbers would certainly leave many with questions. But Puk, the sixth overall pick in the 2016 Amateur Draft, has put up impressive numbers that should overshadow the ERA and mixed role. The Oakland A's are doing things differently with how they handle Puk's outings, but there's plenty to get excited about.
In 32 2/3 innings last year in Low-A, Puk whiffed 40 batters and walked just 12. His electric stuff and ability to locate his pitches was on display early, now we are seeing it once again. In 34 1/3 innings pitched, Puk has struck out 54 batters for an unfathomable 37.8 K%, 14.16 K/9 and 29.4 K-BB%. All three numbers lead the league and it's not very close either, with the next closest in each category multiple points behind. While Puk has never gone more than five innings in an appearance, Puk has struck out six-plus batters in six of his nine appearances.
It's been pure filth from Puk, whether he's come out of the bullpen or thrown the first pitch of the game. Oakland is using the tandem rotation system, a newer age model that the A's are using along with others to try and help reduce some of the wear on young pitchers arms. While they continue to tweak it, the results so far seem to be shining for Puk and should leave dynasty owners and Athletics fans excited about the swing-and-miss stuff the young southpaw is hurling each appearance.
As for Puk's ERA, consider it likely to change. Not only does he lead the league in strikeout rates and numbers, but Puk's 2.29 fielding independent pitching is also a strong indicator that he has performed much better than his 4.19 ERA would indicate. If you take away just one uncharactertistically bad outing Puk had on April 23 when he allowed five runs in three innings, Puk's ERA shines at 3.16.
We should see Puk earn a promotion to Double-A sometime this season, likely in the second half. He is showing all of the tools that made him a top selection in the 2016 draft and could help him rise up the ranks quickly. He may not pitch in Oakland until 2018, but numbers like this will vault him up the prospect rankings and help him become the guy A's fans are most excited about for the future.