Reasonable Statistical Projections for Chris Davis

By Andrew Forthuber on Sunday, April 21st 2013
Reasonable Statistical Projections for Chris Davis

If the season ended today, Baltimore Orioles’ slugger Chris Davis would shatter his previous season highs of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage; but, it doesn’t.  That being said, he is still on track to set career marks in home runs, runs batted in, hits, and walks.  This question looms though; can Davis make his amazing first week of the season translate into the remaining 147 games?  His career numbers, along with statistics from weeks two and three of the season suggest that he unfortunately cannot. 

In the first four games of the 2013 season, Davis notched nine hits in 16 at bats; good for a .600 batting average.  Of those nine hits, four were home runs and three were doubles, which contributed to a staggering 16 runs batted in.  Yes, you did read that correctly.  Over that four game span, Chris Davis averaged one run driven in in every at bat.  In the 11 games that followed (36 at bats), Davis has only produced four runs batted in, one double, and nine total hits.  To contrast the two periods, he went from driving in one run every at bat to driving in one run per every nine at bats.  During his four game hot streak, the Orioles won three out of four games.  Since Davis has cooled off, they are 5-6. 

So the question for Orioles’ fans and fantasy owners alike remains, ‘What can we expect from Chris Davis in the remainder of the season?’  Take a sigh of relief, because Chris Davis is not going to be a flop for the rest of the year.  He’s proven that he can productive in past years, specifically last season when he set career highs in home runs, runs batted in, runs scored, and hits.  Look for that upward trend to continue the rest of this season. 

One of the main reasons why Davis will continue to be productive this season is the Orioles’ lineup as a whole.  He has hit in the fifth spot in the order in 14 out of 15 games so far this season.  With Adam Jones hitting in front of him and Matt Wieters hitting behind him, opposing pitchers essentially can’t pitch around him.  As long as those two stay healthy, Davis will continue to see good pitches to hit.  It’s also safe to assume, barring an injury, that Davis will stay fresh all season long since even if he needs a day off in the field, O’s manager Buck Showalter can still utilize his bat in the designated hitter slot.

Come the end of the season, I expect Davis to have a career year; not quite as good as his first four games led some people to believe, but good nonetheless.  I’m predicting a .283 batting average with 37 home runs and 112 runs batted in.  He will continue to strike out regularly, putting him around 135 come season’s end.  Orioles’ fans have a good year to look forward to and Chris Davis will play a large role in the team’s success!

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