In 2012, the Chicago White Sox nearly rode young left-handed pitcher Chris Sale’s arm to a playoff berth. However, in August and and September, Sale and the (over-achieving) club faltered, finishing second to the Detroit Tigers in the American League Central.
Despite is late-season swoon, Sale, 23, was the White Sox ace and finished the season with 17 wins, a 3.05 ERA, 192 SO, 1.14 WHIP in 192 innings. He was arbitration eligible this offseason but has just signed a three year, $35M deal that includes three option years that may keep him with the White Sox until 2018 for $60M.
The new contract is not unprecedented, as the White Sox have long made efforts to lock-up their top young pitchers, as John Danks and Gavin Floyd can attest. However, the timing and risk associated with Sale are different than Floyd and Danks and leave open questions about the timeliness of the deal.
Sale is a ace-level pitcher, but has garnered a host of critics given his awkward, 2/3 delivery motion that puts pressure on his left elbow. These concerns were present when he was a first round amatuer selection and have continued as he’s blossomed in the majors. Until his 2012 breakout, he was flip-flopped between the rotation and bullpen over questions as to which role would best preserve his elbow.
As a pre-arbitration player, Sale was slated to earn $500K-$600K in 2013, but his new contract jumps his 2013 salary to $12M. By signing Sale long term before his thrid MLB season, the White Sox have chosen to opt out of a cost-effective, elite pitcher they could have signed year-to-year (or released) according to his health or performance. In 2014-2016, Sale’s arbitration years, his arbitration-awarded salary would have only progressively reached the $10-$13M salary range. Instead, the White Sox are locked into an eight-figure annual salary for a pitcher that is likely to miss at least one season over the next four year years due to elbow issues (admittedly, I’ve already assumed Sale is going to require at least one Tommy John surgery to replace torn ligaments in his left elbow).
In comparison, Floyd and Danks were locked into long-term deals one year before they approached free agency.
I’ve long thought that baseball teams have moved too aggressively to sign their top young players to long-term contracts. Where these long-term contracts buy out a player’s first one or two free agent seasons, there may be some discount for the club. However, there is significant risk that these young players (particularly pitchers) do not sustain the early major league success or are sidetracked by major injury. In such cases (see Adam Lind) teams are stuck with an overpriced, unmovable player filling one of their 25 team roster spots. It's not just a risky investment, it's also poor roster-spot management.
It’s contract extensions like Sale’s that may lead clubs to reconsider long-term deals for players with inherent performance risks. Buyer beware.