Pay for saves or punt saves? Wait on relievers or be sure to get at least one or two top tier closers? What round should I take a closer? Who can I trust? Who’s the next in line? Is the risk worth the reward?
Every year there are a ton of questions about drafting saves. Relievers who’ve retained or received the “closer” tag over the offseason hold vastly inflated draft values. Draft strategies can be molded around the selection of pitchers that will only pitch one inning in only 60 to 75 games throughout season.
Closers are such a small and sometimes insignificant cog in real life baseball can make up a very important wheel that can drive your team to a fantasy baseball championship.
While putting together a draft strategy regarding relievers, one must first fully understand their league settings and player pool depth. In shallow (10 or less teams) a lot more extreme strategies, such as punting categories can be effective on draft day since adequate players will be available throughout the season.
To be competitive in the saves category come September, your team will need to amass around 80 to 100 saves in 10 to 12-team leagues. Hitting this mark isn't however necessary on draft day because injuries and poor preformance happen. Below, I go through some different ways to value closers on draft day and help you spot some potential value picks for the later rounds.
The ultimate sticking point for ranking one player over another is health. If a player isn't healthy they can't play. Every year there are big name closers that sustain injuries thus killing their fantasy owners chances of competing in the crucial category of saves. On draft day it only makes sense to draft an injury prone closer if he can be selected at a discount.
Some closers that have injury concerns are, Huston Street, Jason Grilli, LaTroy Hawkins, Casey Janssen, Bobby Parnell, Neftali Feliz and Jesse Crain.
Strikeouts, Strikeouts, Strikeouts!!! There were five relievers that posted over 100 strikeouts in 2013. They were Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Trevor Rosenthal, Greg Holland and Koji Uehara with Craig Kimbrel just falling short by two.
If your missing bats and locating in the strike zone your not allowing as many baserunners so it’s no wonder these are six of the top 10 closers headed into 2014. Additionally, with strikeouts are also widely used category, high strikeout relievers garner additional value.
What kind of teams do closers with big save totals usually play for? Winning teams. It seems simple and that’s why it can be easy to overlook, but a reliever’s team needs to win games for them to earn a saves. I like to give a small bump up to relievers on teams poised to have winning seasons.
Some teams have closers who are paid very handsomely such as the Phillies Jonathan Papelbon, the Braves Craig Kimbrel, the Nationals Rafael Soriano and the Tigers with Joe Nathan. Since these relievers make so much money it would be very difficult for their managers to move them out of the closers role in favor of a lesser paid and heralded reliever. A move such as that would take a serious implosion or injury for a change to be made, so this is also worth a small bump.
Spotting weak closer situations can be a help in two ways for you on draft day. For one it helps you avoid wasting a pick on a shaky closer who may not last long in the role. Secondly it can give you some teams to target late in draft where you could pick up some cheap relievers that have the potential to save games.
This final piece of reliever analysis is my favorite way to view relievers heading into the draft. For me there are really only ten currently listed closers that I will pursue on draft day before waiting for the second in line type relievers. Here are the ten “current closers”:
Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Greg Holland, Koji Uehara, Trevor Rosenthal, Addison Reed, Jonathan Papelbon, David Robertson and Joe Nathan
After those ten are off the board it is time for to round out your hitters and maybe add a starting pitcher or two. End of draft relievers can be valuable in earned run and walks plus hits per innings pitched categories even if they aren’t earning saves. These guys are also very helpful in leagues with holds categories. Relievers I love as end of the draft save candidates are:
Rex Brothers, Cody Allen, Joaquin Benoit, Mark Melancon, Tanner Scheppers, Luke Gregerson, Danny Farquhar, Jake McGee, Jared Burton, Joe Smith and Steve Delabar
Doing this will allow for the flexibility you’ll need at the end of the draft to add the most valuable secondary relievers to your team as others scramble to fill out their starting roster slots. Even though these picks won’t be regarded as “sexy” draft selections, other owners will sure be jealous when your holding five closers come July when you left the draft with only two currently listed closers
Getting weird with it for deep leagues, these relievers have a chance to earn holds and possibly even saves come September. Here they are in no particular order,
Victor Black, Daniel Webb, Heath Hembree, Darren O'Day, Pedro Strop, Carter Capps, Louis Coleman, Nick Wittgren, Ryan Buchter, Richie Mirowski, Kevin Quackenbush and Shae Simmons