When we often think about a hitter in the midst of a breakout season, our mind paints a picture. A young slugger, usually a 25 or 26-year-old who just enters his prime years and we watch as everything clicks together. In an instant, he puts up All Star-caliber numbers is a stud for fantasy baseball owners and we enjoy what's to come from him. But of all the breakout players this season, one of the most interesting is a 30-year-old first baseman.

Just a few years ago, Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak was one of those hitters with a promising future. A consensus top-25 prospect before the 2009 season, many saw Smoak's power and a move to the major leagues that would lead to All Star appearances, some Home Run Derby appearances and outstanding production for fantasy owners.

But not all prospects flourish against major-league competition and of those that don't flame out before they reach the majors or those who do shortly after, there are the cases of players who take years to fully develop into regular contributor. In Smoak's case, it seems to have been seven years in the majors before everything really clicked for him.

Nothing but Smoak

Smoak grew up in the Texas Rangers farm system and made his major-league debut in 2010. But come July, the Rangers shipped him off to the Seattle Mariners. The key piece in the deal, Smoak landed in Seattle with an immediate opportunity for playing time. But the sudden change of scenery after years with one team and the move to a pitcher-friendly ballpark didn't help. 

From 2010 to 2014, Smoak's time with the Mariners didn't go as planned. His best year came in  2013 when he hit 20 home runs and posted a .238/.334/.412 slash line. What could have been the slightest momentum to build off of, ended up with more disappointment.

The next season, Smoak played in just 80 games and those didn't go well. In 276 plate appearances, Smoak hit just seven home runs, struck out in 24 percent of his trips to the plate and a 78 wRC+. Ultimately, Seattle decided it had enough. Nearly 500 games with regular at bats and Smoak joined the likes of other top hitting prospects that just never clicked in Seattle. The team placed Smoak on waivers in October 2014 and the Blue Jays claimed him not long after.

But even with the Blue Jays, Smoak's performance still didn't live up to the prospect hype years ago but he showed signs of improvement. In 669 plate appearances between 2015-'16, Smoak registered a 99 wRC+, 32 home runs, a 29.6 strikeout percentage and a .737 OPS. As a part-time player, Smoak struck out more but also showed more power in exchange. His 29.6 percent strikeout rate was a career-worst, but his hard-hit rate and HR/FB percentage rose. The change of scenery to a more hitter-friendly park and a more aggressive approach started leading to more home runs and optimism this offseason that in an expanded role, Smoak could knock out 20-plus home runs. But in order to do that, he would need to make more frequent contact and be able to handle some more at bats against southpaws.

Smoak Becomes Fire:

Now at the age of 30, it all seems to have clicked for Smoak. Surrounded by some of the best hitters in baseball in recent years, he's picked up stuff form the likes of Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, now it seems to have all come together.

Smoak entered the season with a contact percentage below 76.5 percent. This season has been a dramatic turnaround, with an 81.1 contact percentage. But even more importantly, Smoak is taking advantages of pitches that land in the strike zone and he is making contact nearly every time. Smoak's 92.8 zone-contact percentage is paired with a consistent zone-swing percentage (67 percent) to his career norms. It's not even a case where Smoak is just lucky and seeing an abnormal amount of pitches in the strike zone this season, that rate is steady with his career numbers.

What we have seen is a player with massive power who can hit baseballs hard to the rate of nearly 90 miles per average exit velocity off the bat. While it's not one of the higher rates in baseball, Smoak makes it count on fly balls and line drives. An increased contact rate in the zone, fewer swings and misses (career low 8.8 swinging strike percentage) and a jump in hard-hit contact all explain the power jump. It's resulted in Smoak's 15 home runs, seven doubles and a .924 OPS in 209 plate appearances.

Now let's pair that with the other improvement Smoak is demonstrating. The switch hitter entered with a career .230/.297/.383 line versus lefties, but this season he is the proud owner of a .390/.458/.707 with a 1.166 OPS and 208 wRC+. He isn't doing remotely that well against right-handed pitchers, with a much higher strikeout rate (21.7 to 6.3 percent) and a .259/.317/.537 line against them this season. But his .854 OPS and 124 wRC+ still provide strong numbers and more than enough to accept from a first baseman with Smoak's power 

The areas where people waited years for Smoak to show improvements in have come. He is taking greater advantage of his power in a ballpark and division that plays right into it, all while being surrounded by a deep Blue Jays lineup.

Yes, those sirens you hear getting closer ring for incoming regression. Smoak's .285 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is close to his line in 2016 with Toronto, but nearly 30 points higher than his BABIP in 2015. Given his .228 career batting average paired with that, it's probably Smoak's batting average over the remainder of the year hangs around .250. He'll also likely see some regression against southpaws, which could also cut into his batting average.

But Smoak will continue to hit fifth in a talented Toronto lineup and play in a favorable stadium. His contact rates show the improvements and adjustments he made at the plate. So even if the rest of his season comes with a batting average around .240-.255, he could still hit 20-plus home runs over the remainder of the season. You can keep that and enjoy it from a deep first base position or sell high on Smoak now.

But while the timing is perfect to sell high, Smoak is still having a breakout season that should see him top 30 home runs for the first time in his career and put up 80-plus RBIs with a decent on-base percentage. After years of smoke that would fade into white and disappear, the dark cloud and heat scream a real fire in the Blue Jays lineup and on fantasy scoreboards.