Every year there are a handful of players that come right out of the gates and catch peoples’ attention with the amount of early home runs that they hit.  However, very few players actually sustain their hot start throughout the season.  Many of them will have spurts of greatness, but won’t remain consistent with their power numbers.  Now that the 2013 season is about 25 percent complete, it’s time to look at players with 10 or more home runs and their reasonable statistical projections for the remainder of the season. 

Bryce Harper - Outfield, Washington Nationals

The 2012 rookie campaign for Harper was outstanding.  Everyone could see the raw talent and potential pour out of him throughout the season.  He hit .270 while blasting 22 home runs and driving in 59 runs.  Some people were expecting a sophomore slump for Harper in 2013, but he has made his critics eat their own words as he is on pace to improve in every offensive statistical category.  One of those categories is obviously home runs.  After slugging two long balls on Opening Day this year, I’d say Nationals fans, as well as Bryce Harper, have been disappointed with him only hitting eight home runs in the subsequent 39 games.  In my opinion, Harper will finish the year with 36 home runs and 84 runs batted in.

Paul Goldschmidt - First Baseman, Arizona Diamondbacks

Goldschmidt is on pace to demolish his career highs in home runs, runs batted in, batting average, and (unfortunately) strikeouts.  He started out having a mediocre month of April, in terms of home run hitting, only sending five balls out of the park in the first month.  However, he has been heating up in May, already matching his April total in only 15 days.  Since the Diamondbacks traded Justin Upton and Chris Johnson last year, Goldschmidt doesn’t really have the protection in the lineup that he deserves.  This is going to hamper his ability to continue to hit long balls as pitchers learn that they can pitch around him with infrequent consequences.  A reasonable stat line for him come the end of the season is 33 home runs and 102 runs batted in.

J.P. Arencibia - Catcher, Toronto Blue Jays

Through Arencibia’s brief career in the big leagues, his highest home run total in a season is 23.  Through a quarter of the season, he’s on pace to almost double that.  The Blue Jays catcher has 10 dingers so far in 39 games played.  However, I wouldn’t necessarily expect that trajectory to continue.  He’s played in 39 of the team’s 41 games, which is fairly uncommon, even in the American League where the designated hitter is an option.  I would expect Arencibia to start receiving more games completely off (not in the lineup at all).  With that being said, I’m willing to bet Arencibia won’t finish the season with more than 33 home runs.

Robinson Cano, Second Baseman - New York Yankees

Cano has been under a tremendous amount of pressure season.  He’s been expected to shoulder the offensive load with superstars Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Mark Teixeira on the disabled list and he hasn’t disappointed.  In fact, his 10 homeruns, 25 runs batted in, and .301 batting average has helped propel the New York Yankees to first place in the AL east with a record of 25-15.  Once the injured Yankees’ sluggers return to the lineup, I think Cano will be able to relax and his offensive numbers will actually improve, as hard as that may be to fathom.  I think Cano stays on his current home run pace and finishes the year with 40 long balls.

Nelson Cruz, Outfield - Texas Rangers

Cruz, like the Tigers, is off to yet another hot start to the season.  He’s got 10 home runs so far this year, including three in his last five games.  This is an extremely good sign for Cruz and the Rangers, as it could spell trouble for opposing pitchers if he continues to see the ball as well as he is.  As we’ve seen in the Home Run Derby in years past, Cruz has the ability to hit a lot of home runs.  I think he has been underperforming in the home run category in the last few years.  So, I expect him to hit at least 40 home runs by the end of the 2013 campaign.

John Buck, Catcher - New York Mets

The Mets are off to a less than desirable start this year, but the same can’t be said for catcher John Buck.  He certainly doesn’t look like a player that has never hit more than 20 home runs in a single season in his nine year career in the big leagues.  He’s on pace this season for 40 long balls and 120 runs batted in.  At eight games below .500, Buck and starting pitcher Matt Harvey might be the only bright spots for the Mets all season long.  With numbers like Buck has had in his career, you can’t expect his up-trend to continue all season long.  I expect to see no more than 31 home runs from Buck at the end of 2013. 

Vernon Wells, Outfield - New York Yankees

Yankees’ left fielder Vernon Wells is the only person consistently giving Robinson Cano help on the offensive side of the ball.  Like Cano, Wells has notched 10 home runs this season, including three in the team’s last seven games.  He’s totaled more than 30 home runs in a season three times in his career, so reaching that number won’t be too much of a problem for the 14-year MLB veteran.  The hard thing for Wells will be reaching the 40 home run plateau for the first time in his career.  Unfortunately, I don’t think this will be the year he accomplishes that feat.  I’m projecting 33 home runs and 98 runs batted in for Wells come the end of the season.

Carlos Beltran, Outfield - St. Louis Cardinals

In his 15th year in the league, Beltran is on pace for 40 home runs for the second time.  He accomplished the feat in 2006 with the New York Mets when he hit 41 round-trippers.  At age 36, you’ve got to think his best years are behind him, right?  People thought the same thing about Jose Bautista last year, but he proved them wrong.  Unfortunately for Beltran, situations like that don’t come around very often.  I still think Beltran will have a great year and contribute greatly to the Cardinals’ playoff run, but he won’t hit 40 home runs.  I think 34 home runs will the extent of Beltran’s power numbers come the end of the season.

Chris Davis, First Baseman - Baltimore Orioles

Last year, Davis finally got the opportunity to play a full season and proved that he could put up some significant power numbers.  He finished the 2012 season with 33 home runs and 85 runs batted in.  This year, he blasted six home runs in the first nine games of the season, but has only hit five in the team’s last 30 games.  Davis will definitely still be an essential part of the Orioles’ season, though he most likely won’t hit as many home runs as the first week of his season may have indicated.  I will stick to my guns, and predict the same numbers for Davis as a did in my earlier article on reasonable statistical projections for the Orioles’ slugger; 37 home runs, 112 runs batted in, and a .283 batting average.

Mark Reynolds, First Baseman - Cleveland Indians

Reynolds is known for two things; hitting home runs and striking out.  If his current statistics this year indicate things to come, he will match his career high in home runs (44), and set a career LOW in strikeouts.  In addition, his batting average is 50 points higher than in any of his past three seasons.  However, Reynolds has only hit one long ball in his last 29 at-bats, which may suggest the beginning of a power-slump.  Nonetheless, he’s having a great offensive season, and I think he’ll end up with 40 home runs and over 100 runs batted in, while his average should settle around .250.

Edwin Encarnacion, First Baseman - Toronto Blue Jays

In 2012, Encarnacion set career highs in home runs and runs batted with 42 and 110 respectively.  This year, he’s on pace for very similar numbers and has a good chance to set career highs for a second straight year.  He’s hit 11 dingers so far this season, which is tied for second in the majors.  That number could struggle to climb though, depending on how teammates Jose Bautista and J.P. Arencibia perform throughout the season.  If they aren’t hitting well, Encarnacion won’t have any protection in the lineup and opposing pitchers will have no issue with pitching around him.  Luckily for him, I think Bautista and Arencibia will continue to produce which means he will continue to see decent pitches to hit.  I’m projecting Encarnacion will finish the season with 41 home runs and 119 runs batted in.

Justin Upton, Outfield - Atlanta Braves

Leading the majors in home runs so far this season is the younger of the two Upton brothers. Justin has blasted 13 base clearers this year which is two more than any other man in the league.  He only has one home run in his last 17 games, but that one came in his first game against the Arizona Diamondbacks since they traded him to the Braves in the offseason.  Braves fans are hoping that will provide a spark and get Justin back into a power hitting groove.  The Braves’ lineup provides good protection for Upton, which includes the red hot Andrelton Simmons in front of him, and a slew of options behind him which include Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann.  While I don’t think Upton will finish the year leading the league in home runs, he will maintain above average power numbers.  I expect he’ll finish the season with 44 home runs and 98 runs batted in.