We waited anxiously last season. Miguel Sano, who hit 18 home runs and posted a 150 wRC+ in 335 plate appearances as a rookie, represented baseball's hope for the next great monster of power.
But it never came – a significant strikeout rate, injuries, a move to the outfield and the constant uncomfortableness that came with it, kept us from seeing a second-year jump from Sano.
2017 has brought a sign of hope in dark times. While it's dangerous to fall into the trap of the bait that is small sample size, Sano's first 37 plate appearances shine a ray of light on what everyone wants him to be.
First, you look at the numbers. Through the first nine games this season, the 23-year-old third baseman has three home runs, three doubles and an 11/8 K/BB ratio. There's plenty to examine when it comes to Sano's numbers, including some of the outs, but first let's look at his plate discipline.
Swing Batter, Batter
Sano will always strike out at a significant rate. In baseball's growing shift towards more three-outcome, (home runs, strikeouts, walks) players, he perfectly fits that mold. The issue last season came from an alarming lack of swings on pitches inside the zone as he seemed to be too selective at the plate.
The issue had existed for two seasons, both in his rookie stint in 2015 and last season. His zone swing percentage sat around 60 percent, with just a slight jump from 58.9 percent in 2015 to 61.3 percent the following season.
He chased nearly a quarter of pitches out of the zone and paired with a contact rate in the zone below 79 percent, he took additional strikes that he should have swung at and chased pitches he shouldn't. The results showed with just a .236 batting average and .227 BABIP.
So even with one of the highest average exit velocities in baseball on fly balls and line drives, Sano didn't make enough contact to turn that number into production.
But we've seen a positive change this season, one we certainly hope will continue. Through his first nine games, Sano has been far more aggressive at the plate with pitches in the zone. His swing rate in the zone has skyrocketed 15 percent, per FanGraphs.
Part of this can be attributed to a more aggressive approach at the plate and better eye, recognizing the pitches in the zone and taking advantage of them. As FanGraphs' Travis Sawchik wrote earlier in the week, Sano's swing seems to be quicker this season and as a result, he hasn't been as late on pitches.
Speaking of his swing speed, we've seen some early results this season. Sano's swing speed of 64.2 miles per hour last season ranked 20th in baseball amongst batters with more than 100 at bats, per Baseball Savant. This season, Sano's estimated swing speed is at 69.3 miles per hour. So there seems to be some evidence of a quicker swing.
There has also been a slight cut down on his swing rate outside the zone from 2016 to now and he's made better contact overall. As a result, it's allowed him to barrel up the baseball significantly more and unleash his powerful swing of the bat on the baseball.
As a result of the early returns, we could see teams start to throw more pitches outside the zone to see if Sano chases.
But he has shown the patience to work counts this year and in the past. He drew three walks on Thursday against the Detroit Tigers, so a more cautious approach by hitters could continue to fuel his walk rate.
Feel the Power
Again, we'll recognize it's early and the sample size we're working off here is hitters with 10-plus batted balls. But as of now, Sano leads baseball in average exit velocity off the bat. It's not just by a few decimal points either, Sano's 99.7 MPH exit velocity is nearly two full miles per hour faster than the next closest batters, Nick Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera, per Baseball Savant.
Let's just take a look at Sano's most recent home run on Thursday. While it came off Anibal Sanchez, who could be nearing DFA status after he surrendered six runs across 1 1/3 innings, there is no denying an exit velocity of 111.1 MPH.
Majestic. It marked the 12th time this season that a ball off the bat of Sano came off over 100 miles per hour and it's the fourth time the exit velocity was 110-plus. Simply put, baseballs are getting pulverized off the bat of Sano and even when the ball doesn't leave the yard, smoke is coming off the ball.
He doesn't even need a massive launch angle to get the job done either. While his 23.4* launch angle is top-10 in the majors, it still falls short of some of the top bats per Baseball Savant. His power is pure and with a solid launch angles, the baseball carries.
His launch angle has been on the rise though and could be attributed to rising fly ball and power numbers. After he posted a 17.1* average launch angle in 2016, that has shot up this season. Meanwhile, Sano's fly ball rate is up this season from 45.8 percent in 2016 to 52.9 percent this season and his hard-hit percentage has jumped nearly 13 points early on.
If the improvements he has made continue and he stays healthy, we could be looking at 40-plus home runs this year. Sano has three home runs in 37 plate appearances and if not for elements out of his control like a gust of wind and a large fence, Sano could have a major-league leading five home runs.
Close, But No Cigar:
Two big "near home runs" stand out from this season. Yes, they count as much in the stat sheet as wooden nickels count at the bank, but these are worth noting just in terms of seeing more of Sano's power on display and how little factors can sometimes shape numbers.
Fantasy owners and the Twins still gladly accepted the three-run triple, but in almost any other park, that's a home run. Sano crushed the baseball to the moon and it took a wall to prevent it from carrying out for a grand slam. Per StatCast, the ball had a 104.8 MPH exit velocity with a distance of 393 feet and 91 percent of the time, that ball leaves the yard.
Sano plays in the American League, so he'll get the chance to visit plenty of hitter-friendly stadiums. He'll play 81 games at the Target Center, where Sano and the Twins call home, which is one of the best stadiums for hitters in football. He'll also make plenty of division trips to Progressive Field, Comerica Park and Guaranteed Rate Field, three of the top-10 parks in baseball for home run last season. So while that wall robbed him in this instance, he should be the beneficiary of ballparks this season.
Earlier in that game, Sano vaulted a ball deep into left field that off the bat left everyone in the stadium, watching at home and the broadcasters to believe it was a home run. Even Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon backed up to the wall anticipating it, but then a gust of wind pushes the ball back into play for the fly out.
This is the nature of baseball, wind can aid you at times or hurt you in others, in this instance it hurt Sano. It pushed the ball just the few inches it needed to fall short of leaving the yard.
These are just two examples. Sano recently had a home run earlier this week reviewed that was confirmed to just go foul, another instance of missing a home run by inches due to a little wind. It doesn't count much for fantasy owners, but it serves as further displays of Sano's incredible power that could help him become a star this season.
Going Forward
Again, we are operating under a small sample size that 10 games from now could make this all look silly and offer evidence that counters the idea of Sano's improvements at the plate. But what we are seeing right now is indicative of the power and potential many knew he had and could all come together so brilliantly to be a force.
He's locked in at his natural third base spot, which means he no longer has to be burdened by a position that is foreign to him and took much of his focus away from the plate and put it on to his defense. He is healthy and all indications are should remain that way, with athleticism that helps him handle the corner well.
If he can keep this up, a mid-round pick in fantasy drafts could turn into one of the biggest steals in fantasy baseball this season. The early, improved version we are seeing from Sano could finish the 2017 season with 40-plus home runs, 80-plus RBIs and a strong on-base percentage. That will be more than enough to make up for the strikeouts and it would make him an All Star.